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Posts by François Heisbourg

Sounds more like the UK sidelined itself.

11 hours ago 25 4 2 0
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Japan loosens arms export rules in break from post-WW2 pacifism This clears the way for Japan to sell weapons to more than a dozen countries.

Japan loosens arms export rules in break from post-WW2 pacifism

13 hours ago 23 14 1 1

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1518

1. Pro-🇷🇺 Bulgaria 🇧🇬 ex president Radev wins parliamentary elex, may form govt
2. 🇷🇴 Social Democrats remove key support of Bolojan govt
3. Tusk 🇵🇱-Macron 🇫🇷 discuss nuclear exercises
4. EU Formins in 🇱🇺 to discuss € 90bn loan to 🇺🇦
5. ~80 Shaheds, 22 leakers. 1/2 Iskander-M down

12 hours ago 28 5 1 0

No, only Romaniab style politics.

13 hours ago 3 1 1 0
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Russian-friendly ex-president wins Bulgaria's snap parliamentary elections The result puts the party in a position to potentially govern on its own, without the need to form a coalition with pro-European or smaller parties.

⚡️ Russia-friendly candidate wins Bulgaria snap parliamentary elections with 44.6%.

His electoral win marks a victory for pro-Russian representation in the EU.

1 day ago 94 39 11 6
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Hungary must arrest Netanyahu if he visits, Magyar says Israeli PM Netanyahu, wanted by the International Criminal Court, is due to visit Hungary later this year.

Hungary must arrest Netanyahu if he visits, Magyar says

13 hours ago 110 12 2 9
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Questions loom over EU commissioner’s romantic relationship with French presidential hopeful The two French politicians rose to prominence after working for President Emmanuel Macron.

Questions loom over EU commissioner’s romantic relationship with French presidential hopeful

13 hours ago 7 3 1 1

A fiesr political victim of Iran-war induced austerity?

13 hours ago 11 3 3 0
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4️⃣ SUPERFICIES ET EFFICIENCE
Selon les calculs de @pouletvolant3.bsky.social, la 🇷🇺 a gagné 74 km² dont les ⅔ dans le secteur de Sumy. Le gain opératif est faible mais cela permet de fixer des défenses 🇺🇦 qui pourraient être affectées sur des secteurs plus stratégiques
bsky.app/profile/poul...
9/30

14 hours ago 16 3 1 0
Pertes quotidiennes russes en personnel

Pertes quotidiennes russes en personnel

Cumul des pertes russes en personnel depuis le début de la guerre

Cumul des pertes russes en personnel depuis le début de la guerre

3️⃣ PERSONNEL
Moyenne des pertes en personnel (morts ou blessés) pour la semaine W16 : 1019 par jour (-7%)
Selon les chiffres diffusés par l’armée 🇺🇦, le seuil des 1,3 millions de soldats 🇷🇺 morts ou blessés au combat a été franchi.
680.000 soldats 🇷🇺 seraient actuellement engagés sur le front.
4/30

14 hours ago 14 2 1 0
Répartition des combats pour la semaine 16

Répartition des combats pour la semaine 16

Evolution quotidienne de la répartition des combats par secteur

Evolution quotidienne de la répartition des combats par secteur

Evolution hebdomadaire de la répartition des combats par secteur

Evolution hebdomadaire de la répartition des combats par secteur

2️⃣ SECTEURS
🔹Sud Donbass (Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka) : 38% des combats (-2 pt).
🔹Huliaypole : 9% (-1 pt)
🔹Sloviansk : 2% (-1 pt)
⚠️35% des combats ne sont attribués à aucun secteur (+7 pts). Cela peut fausser l’interprétation sur la répartition et les dynamiques en cours.
3/30

14 hours ago 12 1 1 0
Evolution du nombre d'assauts depuis 2024

Evolution du nombre d'assauts depuis 2024

Evolution du nombre d'assauts depuis 2026

Evolution du nombre d'assauts depuis 2026

1️⃣VOLUME DE COMBATS
Moyenne de la semaine : 162 combats / jour (+20%)
Malgré 2 journées à plus de 200 assauts cette semaine, l’accélération de l’activité du front n’est pas assez nette pour conclure à un véritable démarrage de l’offensive de printemps.
2/30

14 hours ago 14 1 1 0

The list is lengthening

1 day ago 51 15 0 1
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Guerre d'Ukraine | 19/04/26 | Suite

Secteurs :
🌐 Update Vovchansk-Okhrimivka🔹U260419-1735

#UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine

1 day ago 41 9 1 0

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1517

1. Macron to meet Tusk in Gdansk with nuclear deterrence in the agenda
2. ~100 Shahed/ 28 leakers

1 day ago 29 5 1 0
1 day ago 4746 1569 239 69
Russia-Ukraine Daily News (@rvps2001@mastodon.social) 🇪🇪 Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna said #Estonia will not allow the flights of officials heading to Moscow for May 9 to attend #Russia's Victory Day parade to travel through its airspace on...

2. Estonian air space closed as well :
mastodon.social/@rvps2001/11...

2 days ago 14 2 1 0
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Guerre d'Ukraine | 18/04/26

Secteurs :
🌐 Vovchansk-Okhrimivka🔹U260418-1022

#UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine

2 days ago 55 9 5 0
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SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1516

1. Drone factory hit in Taganrog
2. Fico of Slovakia 🇸🇰 barred from using Latvian, Lithuanian airspace to join 9 May victory celebration in Moscow
3. ~150 Shahed, 32 leakers

2 days ago 28 2 1 0
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Iran parliament speaker touts ‘progress’ in US talks, but Strait of Hormuz still shut Ghalibaf says ‘big distance’ remains and sides are 'far' from final discussions; confusion remains over vital waterway; Trump heaps praise on Israel as 'great ally' of US

Iran parliament speaker touts ‘progress’ in US talks, but Strait of Hormuz still shut www.timesofisrael.com/iran-parliament-speaker-...

2 days ago 7 2 1 0
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Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on? Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on? www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...

2 days ago 892 404 63 42

Correction on Russian assets transfer to Ukraine from UK

2 days ago 30 0 1 0
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The Yugtorsan oil depot in Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, this evening after Ukrainian drone attacks. #Russia

3 days ago 492 57 7 0
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President Stubb:

"I think, at the end of the day, United States will find themselves in quite a lonely place. I'm the most pro-American president in Europe. I'm an avid transatlanticist. I want the relationship to work."

3 days ago 456 108 14 7

Drakkar attack by Hezbollah against French military was in 1983, not 1982. Apologies for my mistake. On the same day, Hezbollah killed 241 US military in Beirut.

3 days ago 25 5 0 0

French sapper killed in a Hezbollah ambush in 🇱🇧, 3 others WIA from the same para unit famed for its battlefield mine clearing expertise -a task not for the faint-hearted. All respect to our soldiers 🇨🇵. Brings back sad memories of the Hezbollah "Drakkar" attack in October 1982 killing 58 in Beirut

3 days ago 41 15 1 1

Time for a cruise?

3 days ago 6 0 2 0

Broadly true, but with one big exception, France: nuclear and UNSC status and a similar relationship to the use of military force bring Paris and London together

3 days ago 16 4 1 0
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Europe doesn't care about the UK - we're deluded The story of Brexit has, in part, been one of Britain misunderstanding the European Union

Me on why it is important that the UK understands where the EU is on Brexit inews.co.uk/news/world/e...

3 days ago 33 7 5 2

Snap-back

3 days ago 19 2 1 0