Advertisement · 728 × 90

Posts by Nikotes

Preview
Software Darwinism 2.0 How Intelligence (AI) Deflation is Impacting Software & Where the CSU family Stands.

And, yet again, another Software take 👀

How Intelligence (AI) Deflation is Impacting Software & Where the Constellation Software $CSU family Stands. $TOI $LMN

expansestocks.substack.com/p/software-d...

1 week ago 1 1 0 0
Preview
ASML Q1 2026 When the Bears Run Out of Excuses

$ASML Q1'26

"Our pricing model is not based on the squeeze that our customers find themselves in. Not the way we do business. The way we do business is we look at the value we provide, generation on generation, tool on tool, & we take our fair share" -CFO

expansestocks.substack.com/p/asml-q1-2026

6 days ago 0 0 0 0
Preview
Software Darwinism 2.0 How Intelligence (AI) Deflation is Impacting Software & Where the CSU family Stands.

And, yet again, another Software take 👀

How Intelligence (AI) Deflation is Impacting Software & Where the Constellation Software $CSU family Stands. $TOI $LMN

expansestocks.substack.com/p/software-d...

1 week ago 1 1 0 0
Preview
Hidden Gems: Sixth Edition A Primer on Terravest Industries: The Anatomy of a Roll-Up Masterpiece

Going into end of Q1 2026 with a new piece. Free to read.

New Hidden Gems Series: Six Edition is now out.

A Primer on #Terravest $TVK : The Anatomy of a Roll-Up Masterpiece

expansestocks.substack.com/p/hidden-gem...

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
Preview
Topicus: Q4 2025 The European CSU Accelerates

Now publishing my #Topicus $TOI earnings digest.
#LumineGroup $LMN will come next.

expansestocks.substack.com/p/topicus-q4...

1 month ago 0 1 0 0
Post image

Lumine Group $LMN earnings digest is now ready.

Find it in the usual place.

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
Preview
Topicus: Q4 2025 The European CSU Accelerates

Now publishing my #Topicus $TOI earnings digest.
#LumineGroup $LMN will come next.

expansestocks.substack.com/p/topicus-q4...

1 month ago 0 1 0 0
Preview
Software Darwinism Does All SaaS Die in the Age of AI? And Where Does Constellation Software Fit?

Yet another software take 👀

Does SaaS die in the age of AI?
And where does #ConstellationSoftware $CSU fit in all this?

Full article below

expansestocks.substack.com/p/software-d...

1 month ago 2 1 0 0
Preview
Constellation Software Q4 2025 The PEMS Strategy and the Gravity of Scale

A bit late to the party, but here is my Constellation Software $CSU Q4 2025 earnings digest:

The PEMS strategy and the gravity of scale.

expansestocks.substack.com/p/constellat...

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
Advertisement
Preview
Software Darwinism Does All SaaS Die in the Age of AI? And Where Does Constellation Software Fit?

Yet another software take 👀

Does SaaS die in the age of AI?
And where does #ConstellationSoftware $CSU fit in all this?

Full article below

expansestocks.substack.com/p/software-d...

1 month ago 2 1 0 0
Preview
Deep Dive Brief: Cadence The Architect of the AI Revolution

Moaty software businesses are rare, especially in this SaaS-mageddon.

Here’s one: VMS DNA + hardware + IP lock-in. A full AI driven design platform selling into arguably the best industry ever: semiconductors.

My deep dive on #Cadence #CDNS is ready.

expansestocks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...

2 months ago 1 0 0 0
Preview
Intuitive Q4 2025 The Engine Still Hums, But the Road Feels Bumpy going into 2026

#Intuitive #ISRG Q4 2025 earnings digest with CC notes is out.
The engine still hums, the road feels bumpy going into 2026.

Full article in bio or link below!

expansestocks.substack.com/p/intuitive-...

2 months ago 0 0 0 0
Preview
Top Picks 2026 Buying Quality While Others Panic

My top picks for 2026 are out.

This might be one of the most interesting years to "pick them out". Having a clear thesis and conviction really matters.

#MercadoLibre
#Amazon
#ConstellationSoftware CSU (and spin-offs)

Open to read. Full article below.

expansestocks.substack.com/p/top-picks-...

3 months ago 0 1 0 0
Preview
Annual Letter 2025 Conviction Over Complexity

As we close out 2025, I find myself reflecting not just on this year’s returns, but on something more fundamental: what kind of investor I want to be.

My 2025 Annual Letter is now live for my readers. Wishing you all a Merry Christmas & a Happy New Year🎄✨

expansestocks.substack.com/p/annual-let...

3 months ago 0 1 0 0
Preview
Top Picks 2026 Buying Quality While Others Panic

My top picks for 2026 are out.

This might be one of the most interesting years to "pick them out". Having a clear thesis and conviction really matters.

#MercadoLibre
#Amazon
#ConstellationSoftware CSU (and spin-offs)

Open to read. Full article below.

expansestocks.substack.com/p/top-picks-...

3 months ago 0 1 0 0
Preview
Annual Letter 2025 Conviction Over Complexity

As we close out 2025, I find myself reflecting not just on this year’s returns, but on something more fundamental: what kind of investor I want to be.

My 2025 Annual Letter is now live for my readers. Wishing you all a Merry Christmas & a Happy New Year🎄✨

expansestocks.substack.com/p/annual-let...

3 months ago 0 1 0 0
Preview
Deep Dive Brief: Mercado Libre’s Flywheel - Part II Understanding the Flywheel and The Moat That's Building Latin America's Digital Economy

Finally, Part II of the #MercadoLibre #MELI Deep Dive Brief series is out!

Don’t miss it, I think it might be worth your time.
I cover: its fully integrated business model, competitive moats that protect it, growth drivers ahead, along with a DCF model.

expansestocks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...

4 months ago 1 0 0 0
Preview
Deep Dive Brief: Mercado Libre Part I How Survival Built Latin America’s Most Formidable Digital Ecosystem

The origin story of #MercadoLibre #MELI is out! At Expanse Stocks (and it's free to read).

expansestocks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...

5 months ago 1 0 0 0
Preview
Mercado Libre Q3 2025 Pressing the "Meli" Advantage

#MercadoLibre → Pressing the “Meli” Advantage
Q3 2025 earnings digest with CC notes is out!

expansestocks.substack.com/p/mercado-li...

5 months ago 1 0 0 0
Advertisement
Preview
The Rareness of Moaty Industrials: A Selection of 6 Gems Moats harder to build but harder to erode.

The Rareness of Moaty Industrials. New piece is out this morning along with a selection of 6 gems.

expansestocks.substack.com/p/the-rarene...

5 months ago 0 0 0 0
Preview
Intuitive Surgical: Q3 2025 The V-Launch Supercharges an Already Dominant Machine

#Intuitive #ISRG

Headline numbers looked great, but the real story is the da Vinci V system proving it’s not only an incremental upgrade but the catalyst for the next growth phase.

Earnings breakdown and call notes are ready at Expanse Stocks
expansestocks.substack.com/p/intuitive-...

6 months ago 0 0 0 0
Preview
Deep Dive Brief: Intuitive Surgical The Surgical Robot That Became a Monopoly

The new piece on Intuitive (ISRG) is out.
The Surgical Robot that Became a Monopoly.

expansestocks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...

6 months ago 0 1 0 0
Preview
Portfolio Here’s what you’ll find next as a Paid Subscriber — For just $0.39/day ($12/month) or $0.27/day ($100/year) with the annual plan!

Tough weeks with volatility hitting my top holdings. Running a concentrated portfolio means learning to stomach swings. I’ve realized once a position creeps above 15%, conviction starts slipping into self-doubt.

I made some changes. Details inside.
expansestocks.substack.com/p/portfolio

6 months ago 0 1 0 0

A more fundamental approach: ROIC & Reinvestment Rate-Driven DCF.

Practical guide + example with #ConstellationSoftware.
Includes downloadable models for #CSU and its spin-offs ( #Topicus and #LumineGroup).

🔗 Link in thread or profile.

6 months ago 0 1 0 0
Preview
Deep Dive Brief: Intuitive Surgical The Surgical Robot That Became a Monopoly

The new piece on Intuitive (ISRG) is out.
The Surgical Robot that Became a Monopoly.

expansestocks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...

6 months ago 0 1 0 0

A more fundamental approach: ROIC & Reinvestment Rate-Driven DCF.

Practical guide + example with #ConstellationSoftware.
Includes downloadable models for #CSU and its spin-offs ( #Topicus and #LumineGroup).

🔗 Link in thread or profile.

6 months ago 0 1 0 0
Advertisement
Preview
Deep Dive Brief: How to Build a DCF for Serial Acquirers Like Constellation Software - Part #3 A More Fundamental Approach: The ROIC and Reinvestment Rate-Driven DCF

Deep Dive Brief: How to Build a DCF for Serial Acquirers Like #ConstellationSoftware - Part #3
It includes models for both #CSU and spin-offs #Topicus and #Lumine

🔗 Full article in the thread below.
expansestocks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...

6 months ago 0 1 0 1
Preview
Deep Dive Brief: How to Build a DCF for Serial Acquirers Like Constellation Software - Part #3 A More Fundamental Approach: The ROIC and Reinvestment Rate-Driven DCF

Deep Dive Brief: How to Build a DCF for Serial Acquirers Like #ConstellationSoftware - Part #3
It includes models for both #CSU and spin-offs #Topicus and #Lumine

🔗 Full article in the thread below.
expansestocks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...

6 months ago 0 1 0 1
Preview
Portfolio Here’s what you’ll find next as a Paid Subscriber — For just $0.39/day ($12/month) or $0.27/day ($100/year) with the annual plan!

Tough weeks with volatility hitting my top holdings. Running a concentrated portfolio means learning to stomach swings. I’ve realized once a position creeps above 15%, conviction starts slipping into self-doubt.

I made some changes. Details inside.
expansestocks.substack.com/p/portfolio

6 months ago 0 1 0 0
Preview
Deep Dive Brief: Constellation Software and AI - Part #2 Deconstructing the AI Threat and Opportunity for Constellation Software

One of the most frequent questions investors ask themselves these days revolves around AI and its impact on established business models. Every industry seems to be in the crosshairs, and investors are asking: who are the winners, who are the value traps?

expansestocks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-...

7 months ago 1 0 0 0