DYK that @noaa.gov estimates how much rainfall you would probably need in order to end drought?

www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monit...

This is a behemoth.

2.5-minute #Himawari9 Infrared images showed Super Typhoon #Sinlaku after it had rapidly intensified to a Category 5 storm (as of 1200 UTC), southeast of Guam and the Mariana Islands. cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl...

Super Typhoon #Sinlaku is now a Category 5-equivalent storm in the Western Pacific and may affect Guam / Northern Mariana Islands.

Per JTWC: This is just the 10th known Category 5 storm in the basin prior to May 1 since 1945.

A sign of things to come if a strong El Niño develops by peak season?

After an impressive bout of RI, #Sinlaku looks much different at sunset than at sunrise. Classic super typhoon look now

Himawari-9 infrared satellite imagery of intense Typhoon Sinlaku from at 0840z April 12. The storm cloud pattern is extremely symmetric and ring like.

T8.0

GFS map of temperature anomalies over the contiguous USA for March 21, 2026.

We need to talk a bit about how utterly absurd the March heatwave was in the USA.

This heatwave would have been impossible without a boost from climate change, but even with climate change it remains a deeply unlikely event.

A thread looking at some of the numbers.

🧵

Thank you to the National Tropical Weather Conference for the warm hospitality on South Padre Island! I've been coming to this meeting since it began nearly 15 years ago. Simply the best annual meeting of hurricane minds. Always great catching up with old friends and colleagues.

The life and death of twin cyclones in the West Pacific.

A fascinating evolution and interaction.

"The 1965 hurricane season saw a strong El Niño in the Pacific and below average hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The season recorded only one major hurricane, but that storm was Billion Dollar Betsy, the first-ever billion-dollar storm that wreaked havoc on South Florida and southern Louisiana."

The first 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook was just issued by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the team @csuatmossci.bsky.social. Overall activity could be the lowest since 2015 if a supercharged El Niño emerges. April bookends are wide, however. My deep dive ⬇️

Drought a huge concern this summer. Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) by state for March 2026 had 6 states with their worst drought on record, with 22 others experiencing a top-10 worst drought. Only Michigan had an above-average lack of drought. From: www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monit...

The @noaa.gov data is in. March 2026 was 9.35 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century normal across the U.S., the warmest March in more than 130 years of records.

California, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas were all record warm.

White House releases FY27 budget proposal, continuing plan of massive cuts to Earth science, including elimination of NOAA Research NOAA grant data shows agency awarding grants at a much slower rate than previous years, likely showing administration strategy to reduce scientific spending through budget execution

News: WH released proposed FY27 budget, continuing to push plan to eliminate NOAA Research and massively cut Earth sciences - while NOAA grant data for FY2026 shows only 7 new grants so far compared to 379 in FY2025, further evidence of curtailed science budget execution. tinyurl.com/5e3ptub2

Absolutely breathtaking view of the Artemis II launch.

Wow.

GFS model forecast of the departure of winds at 850 mb from average over a latitude band from 5°S to 5°N.

A super-strength westerly wind burst is predicted for late next week, accompanied by twin tropical cyclones in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, which should push us well on the way to El Niño. Huge 850 mb wind anomalies in excess of 15 m/s (33 mph) predicted near the Dateline.

Interested in hurricanes? I want to introduce TC-ATLAS: the Tropical Cyclone Analysis Tool for Live and Archived Structure. Explore live or past storms without writing a line of code or downloading a data file, building on the capabilities of TC-RADAR: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...

Latest US Census Bureau county level population data for 2025 has been released. Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina counties continue to see the fastest numeric levels of growth.

Surprise? Pinellas / Miami-Dade counties in Florida rank #2 and #3 for biggest year-over-year numeric declines.

Promotional NOAA graphic titled “New Operational Cone Graphic.” It shows a sample hurricane forecast cone map for Hurricane Helene over the southeastern U.S., with a white cone indicating the five-day track and colored areas showing tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings. Text highlights new features for 2026, including inland watch/warning visualization, a solid white cone for the full forecast period, and combined hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas shown with blue and pink hatching. The hurricanes.gov logo appears at the bottom.

The National Hurricane Center is rolling out 2 new products for 2026: an updated track cone showing inland watches/warnings, and new storm surge alerts for Hawaii. Learn more about these improvements: www.noaa.gov/news-release...

CONUS daily high and low temperature graph showing the spike in unusual heat in recent days

National high and low by date. The recent spike in heat with the 112 degree March record stands out.

Map of U.S., from coolwx.com, showing locations currently experiencing record-breaking temperatures. There are countless such locations in the Western U.S., with hundreds of red dots (locations breaking daily record highs) and countless pink dots (locations breaking March monthly record highs). The region of record heat extends from the Pacific Coast to east the Mississippi River, and from Canada to Mexico. The region of red and pink dots is vastly larger even than yesterday's (or the day before, or the day before, or the day before, same as it ever was, same...as it ever was...).

Incredibly, even *more* locations across U.S. are today experiencing their warmest March temperatures on record--many by a wide margin, with some even breaking April records. This includes most or all of: AZ, UT, CO, NM, WY, NE, KS, MO, IA, plus portions of many other states. 🫠

Map of the lower 48 United States showing 0.25° GFS run from 18z on 20 March 2026. The variable is the 500 hPa geopotential height percentile rank considering ERA5. There is a record-breaking ridge across the Western U.S.

Honestly, this historic heat dome across the West is really hard to put into words for me. Temperatures over 110°F (43°C) in March, shattering all-time monthly records on multiple consecutive days, and not just by a little.

➡️ I can confirm this is human-caused climate change.

polarwx.com/models/

Map of U.S., from coolwx.com, showing locations currently experiencing record-breaking temperatures. There are countless such locations in the Western U.S., with hundreds of red dots (locations breaking daily record highs) and countless pink dots (locations breaking March monthly record highs). The region of record heat extends from the Pacific Coast to the Mississippi River, and from Canada to Mexico. The region of red and pink dots is vastly larger even than yesterday's.

...And, again today, a huge swath of the continental United States clear across from the Pacific Coast to Mississippi River is experiencing all-time March monthly record heat. Some locations are so hot that they are actually exceeding *April* all-time record highs. Incredible.

US national March heat record likely broken on Thursday, with hundreds more records to fall through weekend In Hawai'i, another kona low is causing "catastrophic" flooding in northern O'ahu

A new US nat'l March heat record was likely established on Thursday as dozens of monthly records fell, with record heat expected to persist for days. Meanwhile, Hawai'i is facing another kona low onslaught with "catastrophic" flash flooding reported in northern O'ahu. tinyurl.com/hxjjswr8

A particularly dangerous situation flash flood warning is in effect in northern Oahu where “catastrophic flooding is occurring.” More than 13 inches of rain has fallen since Thursday evening alone.
www.sfchronicle.com/weather/arti...

btw the last gust stronger at National Airport was 70 mph in the derecho of 2012. power pole reported down in Alexandria. widespread 60+ on mesonet/faa/noaa stations.

Breaking News: UCAR files federal lawsuit to stop dismantling of National Center for Atmospheric Research Lawsuit lists NSF, NOAA, DOC, OMB and their directors as defendents

BREAKING: University Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) files suit against NSF, OMB, NOAA and DOC to halt alleged "violations of the Constitution and Administrative Procedure Act" undertaken by agencies to dismantle Nat'l Center for Atmospheric Research. open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

Just in: UCAR has filed a lawsuit against NSF, the Commerce Dept, NOAA, and OMB to prevent the dismantling of NCAR, alleging "violations of the Constitution and the Administrative Procedure Act."

On the CPC's 6-10 Day Outlook (for March 19-23), 33.4% of the Lower 48 has a >90% chance of being in the warmest temperature tercile. The 33.4% number is the 5th largest on record for this product and the highest percentage in 9 years (since Feb 13, 2017 issuance).

Interestingly, end of last week the Joint Typhoon warning center had a service advisory up saying that they were cutting forecast frequency in half in most of the Southern Hemisphere.

Today advisory is gone. Does anyone know if that means they rescinded the change or just took down the notice??