Good lucky scatter plot for MLS 2026; SKC is atrocious, Vancouver is incredible
good-lucky catter plot of all MLS teams since 2013
With most teams having played 8 games, the underlying stats are beginning to become useful while still noisy.
Vancouver may be the best MLS team ever and SKC the worst. Both are performing as expected.
There's a huge pack of average teams down on their luck.
I would say "good to know", but it will never happen again.
Strike Frei, unless he is a dual citizen, but Earl Edwards Jr. could pinch hit in a massive emergency.
There’s a pretty decent bench as well. Off the top of my head:
Jordan Morris
Jackson Ragen
Alex Roldan
Reid Roberts
Dave Romney
Dejuan Jones
Benji Kikanovic
Jack Skahan
Stefan Frei
Have to add Daniel Munie
San Diego has been, by the numbers, one of the worst teams in terms of defensive efficiency (how quickly opponents can convert possession to chances). Today is not going to make those numbers better.
He's not come out when he should've about 2-3 times before this as well.
He's also played a pass into traffic leading into the first goal.
And he's a negative shot stopper, currently ranked 27th out of 30th in the league.
Which raises the question
No clue what Horvath is doing there not coming out for that ball across goal.
Red Bulls deservedly getting drubbed in Montreal, 3-0.
They are actually hiring a VP of Data and Analytics. Maybe things will get better.
I'm working on a whole new dimension to my weekly analysis, and -- fingers crossed -- I hope to introduce it next week.
Until then, enjoy the games (and watch that xG per Shot graphic that Apple TV puts up afterwards).
/end
It's possible to be in the middle there and be good or in the middle and be bad, but then you need some other dynamic working for you.
Chances are, you might just be getting lucky / unlucky.
Avg xG Shot Diff can play a role, too. If you get a more of the median shots, that can work.
5/
These are tied together. If both teams are getting the same shots per game, but one team is getting a higher average xG per Shot, they *will* win more often.
The quality of the teams at the top and bottom of this Great+Good xG Shots Diff chart is not really in dispute so far in MLS 2026.
4/
This is one reason we've seen such an interest in the Where Goals Come From Great / Good / Avg / Poor classifications the past couple of seasons.
Teams getting more Great and Good shots usually see better conversion rates.
3/
You are fighting an uphill battle week-after-week when you are taking worse shots than the other guys. Mathematically, as I've said before, you have to way outshoot your opponent.
Home v. away is an interesting dynamic. You have to have to an advantage in at least one of them, given your style.
2/
Fri Stat Dump (on a Sat): xG per Shot Differential
I'm changing my planned selection for this week, as Matt has posted twice about Sporting's xGD fight with history here.
My pinned skeet is from when SKC let Vermes go and showed how poor SKC was on this metric.
It's actually gotten worse.
1/
Following last night's 3-0 loss at Vancouver, Sporting xGD/game is now -1.92.
In @americansocceranalysis.com's database, which goes back to 2013, the worst xGD/game is -0.83 (last year's SKC team), just edging out 2019 FC Cincy's -0.82 and 2013 Chivas USA's -0.80.
Worst MLS team I've ever seen.
Life has gotten in the way today. I'll plan for a Friday Stat Dump on Saturday this week instead.
New research! @beninquiring.bsky.social replicated @eliotmckinley.com's work on throw ins, and added g+ in to see how teams can be smarter on the trendiest part of the game in 2026. With an interactive throw in visualizer!
www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/4/...
I had a stat in the Power Rankings today: SKC's per-game xG differential is -1.70. The worst team in the @americansocceranalysis.com database – which goes back 14 years – is... last year's SKC side at -0.83. 2019 Cincy were -0.82.
SKC are HISTORICALLY dire.
tacticsfreezone.ghost.io/mls-power-ra...
This was a very good game from MNUFC on the road, but I thought it was especially good for Drake Callender.
They don’t need him to be 2025 Dayne St. Clair, but they need a lot more performances like this to secure a solid playoff spot given the improved quality in the West this season.
No doubt and no issue with the effort. But people have been saying there has been little rotation so far, and maybe today that had an impact.
Sometimes very good teams lose on the road in MLS, and you don’t need to read into it.
LAFC gave up 9 shots on target today. The dam broke on them. The underlying numbers have shown they are not Best in the West defensively.
It will be interesting against SJ next week, especially if SJ wins today.
That's all for this week. Thanks for stopping by and reading these threads each week.
One week this season, we'll look to break down the components of g+ Offense Diff and see where teams are stronger and weaker.
Enjoy the games!
/end
I give you as a comparison, 2025 as of April 10th, and the end of the 2025 season. How much did your team change last season?
Do you think they will still change a lot this season?
6/
That's not a problem as g+ Offense Diff agrees with xGD very strongly, and we know xGD and GD don't perfectly align. Teams over-perform or under-perform every season.
But it could be one indicator of where the table is currently lying to us.
5/
So if you've already been doing the math for your team, you know what their g+ Offense Diff looks like, so this shouldn't surprise you.
SJE and VAN, by g+ Offense Differential, are the two best teams in the league at the moment.
But the table conflicts a bit with much of this.
4/
Now let's take a look at defenses by looking at g+ Offense Against. Some possible surprises are near the top in lowest avg g+ Offense, such as CHI, STL, and CLB.
SKC is at the bottom in both of these, so very clearly they will be last when we look at g+ Offense Differential next.
3/
As it turns out, initial indications are that by adding the full MLS 2025 season to our 2017-2024 seasons (minus 2020), g+ Offense Differential is now slightly more important than Expected Goals Differential (xGD) and xPoints.
Let's start with 2025 g+ Offense For.
LAG is a surprise #2 here.
2/
Friday Stat Dump: Revisiting g+ Offense Differential
At the end of 2025 I compared three metrics that I find to be the most useful for predicting table finishes in an MLS season. One was g+ Offense Differential.
Last year's 🧵 on g+ Offense Differential explains it all:
bsky.app/profile/jamo...
1/
If you thought Preston Judd's goal celebration last Saturday was questionable, know that he was determined to score and honor his dog Poppy, who recently underwent emergency surgery. "She's like my daughter," he shared today, something every dog lover understands. www.gofundme.com/f/from-poppy...