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Posts by Owen Winter

another example of Britain being more culturally proximate to India than the US, too

4 hours ago 16 0 2 0
A chart from Pew showing the share of people who say people in their country are morally good. 47% in the US say it is true, lower than any other country. The highest are UK (82%), Mexico (83%), Japan (83%), Australia (85%), Sweden (88%), India (88%), Indonesia (92%) and Canada (92%)

A chart from Pew showing the share of people who say people in their country are morally good. 47% in the US say it is true, lower than any other country. The highest are UK (82%), Mexico (83%), Japan (83%), Australia (85%), Sweden (88%), India (88%), Indonesia (92%) and Canada (92%)

It's an underrated part of British culture that we tend to believe other Brits are generally good people. There's such a huge gulf in the Anglosphere between those who believe it (UK, Australia, Canada) and the US

4 hours ago 41 5 5 2

CA/VA gerrymanders might end up being net positive for US democracy, but this take is wrong. The majority shouldn't be able to vote away the representation of the minority (and ofc legislators shouldn't, either)

11 hours ago 9 0 1 0
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Hello Alex

11 hours ago 4 0 1 0
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Here are the old districts, for context

14 hours ago 8 0 0 0
Chart showing wasted votes under Virginia's new district boundaries. A wasted vote is one which does not contribute to winning the district, i.e a vote for a losing party or a vote for a winning party beyond what they need to win. Democrats designed the system so that it maximised the number of wasted Republican votes

Chart showing wasted votes under Virginia's new district boundaries. A wasted vote is one which does not contribute to winning the district, i.e a vote for a losing party or a vote for a winning party beyond what they need to win. Democrats designed the system so that it maximised the number of wasted Republican votes

Virginia's new gerrymander is a masterclass

14 hours ago 19 1 4 0
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🚨NEW HISTORIC LOW 🚨 - net economic optimism in Britain has fallen to the lowest levels ever recorded since Ipsos began collecting this data in 1978.

15 hours ago 29 16 1 7
Chart showing Senedd polling since 2021. Since the 2024 Westminster election, Labour has collapsed while Reform and Plaid have risen

Chart showing Senedd polling since 2021. Since the 2024 Westminster election, Labour has collapsed while Reform and Plaid have risen

Disappointing Senedd poll for Plaid Cymru from YouGov today. In my average, accounting for house effects, Reform has a 1pt lead:

Reform 28%
Plaid 27%
Labour 16%
Green 10%
Conservative 10%
Lib Dem 6%

1 day ago 22 5 4 1
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1 day ago 1 0 1 0
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lol

1 day ago 11 3 2 0

There are three Your Party-endorsed Independents (out of 51 seats) plus six pro-Corbyn "Islington Community Independents"

1 day ago 6 1 1 0
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Amazing that Your Party hasn't managed to field a proper slate of candidates in Islington

1 day ago 15 3 3 1

While I am firm in my belief Starmer should go, and soon, isn’t it weird we’ve got sucked into a side argument over the process for a security clearance for Mandelson, the turning down of which had nothing to do with Epstein? It’s the British political class at its worst, I think.

1 day ago 240 26 20 2

despite everything I *think* there's still only 11 MPs who have called for Starmer to go

Clive Lewis
Nadia Whittome
Barry Gardiner
Rachael Maskell
Neil Duncan-Jordan
Brian Leishman
Kate Osborne
Euan Stainbank
Peter Lamb
Kim Johnson
Jon Trickett

2 days ago 15 1 2 1

Disintegrating before our eyes.

2 days ago 104 17 23 3
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The problem with Starmer's argument (well one of them) is that it depends on an assertion that he wouldn't have appointment Mandelson if he'd known he'd failed vetting.

But he appointed him before vetting was complete.

2 days ago 334 65 32 7
Chart of the number of Labour MPs who have called for Starmer to resign. Jon Trickett is the 10th MP to call for him to go, on 27th February

Chart of the number of Labour MPs who have called for Starmer to resign. Jon Trickett is the 10th MP to call for him to go, on 27th February

Warming up the chart just in case

2 days ago 88 8 4 0
Chart showing estimated fall in GDP per person resulting from Brexit (based on different specifications in a synthetic control model): UK, Q1-2026 to Q2-2025

Chart showing estimated fall in GDP per person resulting from Brexit (based on different specifications in a synthetic control model): UK, Q1-2026 to Q2-2025

Brexit has likely done more economic damage than feared.

Recent evidence suggests the economic cost of Brexit may be approaching twice the 4% impact assumed by the OBR.

The Chancellor has signalled a shift in approach to EU trade, but the effect will depend on how far the govt goes on alignement.

2 days ago 40 21 6 5

I don’t think PMs should be judged solely in comparison to their possible replacements. We should expect better from our leaders!

2 days ago 0 0 1 0
Because the reality is that there isn’t now, and there shouldn’t be, a civil service process that can stop the elected government making ill-advised or actively dangerous appointments. One reason why I am a longtime supporter of electoral reform is that I think “the government of the day has to get its appointees through at least one coalition partner” is a good and democratic brake on what the executive wants to do.

Because the reality is that there isn’t now, and there shouldn’t be, a civil service process that can stop the elected government making ill-advised or actively dangerous appointments. One reason why I am a longtime supporter of electoral reform is that I think “the government of the day has to get its appointees through at least one coalition partner” is a good and democratic brake on what the executive wants to do.

like this from @stephenkb.bsky.social. frustrating that the conversation has turned to who-saw-what-when, which distracts from Starmer's error of judgement

2 days ago 14 5 1 0

Great piece. Reform is an awkward coalition between pro-Trump radicals and pro-NHS, suburbanite Johnson-to-Starmer-to-Farage switchers

4 days ago 14 2 0 0

🫰

5 days ago 0 0 0 0

was going to post my one of these but literally just the same as Owen

5 days ago 5 1 1 0

No wonder I'm such a fence-sitter - and surprised there are so few of me out there!

5 days ago 6 2 1 0
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an artist's impression of the global megacity of South Queensferry and/or Cupar, after the SNP have been forced by parliamentary arithmetic to pay off the Scottish Lib Dems for five years

an artist's impression of the global megacity of South Queensferry and/or Cupar, after the SNP have been forced by parliamentary arithmetic to pay off the Scottish Lib Dems for five years

Edinburgh West and North East Fife after a full term of the SNP having to bribe the Lib Dems to pass their Budgets:

5 days ago 15 6 2 1

This poll is a bit of an outlier in Scotland, but we're surprisingly close to the scenario where SNP and Greens don't have a majority between them. Would put Scottish Labour and Lib Dems in an awkward spot

5 days ago 9 3 1 0

right but the model is based on the demographics you provide (how would it know where you lived?)

5 days ago 0 0 1 0

twins!

5 days ago 1 0 0 0

You've listed your ethnicity as "other", which is a very small group in the UK

5 days ago 2 0 2 0

Uhhh, why? Lots of people support Reform

5 days ago 0 0 2 0