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Posts by Roger Filmyer

Crying Michael Jordan, photoshopped onto a clown costume

Crying Michael Jordan, photoshopped onto a clown costume

"do we think there's going to be an oil crisis"

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
A quote tweet by Arpit Gupta (@arpitrage):
Original tweet - "Investors are now betting overall US inflation over the next 12 months will surge above 5%. Implied inflation rate from 1 year breakeven, per Bloomberg" by Mike Dorning, with a Bloomberg graph showing US inflation swaps showing a sharp rise to over 5% inflation by March 2027.
Quoted tweet - "You may not like it, but this is unbelievable forecasting performance" from Arpit Gupta, including a screenshot of a Larry Summers tweet from August of 2023 juxtaposing a graph of inflation from 1966 to 1982 (with 2 inflation peaks, the first around 1974, a return to stability, and then a sharp rise in 1978 to a huge peak around 1980), with a graph of inflation from 2013-2023, showing a large peak in 2021 coinciding with the post-COVID economic recovery. The implication is clear, that inflation should somehow spike again starting in early 2026... Pure fantasy.

A quote tweet by Arpit Gupta (@arpitrage): Original tweet - "Investors are now betting overall US inflation over the next 12 months will surge above 5%. Implied inflation rate from 1 year breakeven, per Bloomberg" by Mike Dorning, with a Bloomberg graph showing US inflation swaps showing a sharp rise to over 5% inflation by March 2027. Quoted tweet - "You may not like it, but this is unbelievable forecasting performance" from Arpit Gupta, including a screenshot of a Larry Summers tweet from August of 2023 juxtaposing a graph of inflation from 1966 to 1982 (with 2 inflation peaks, the first around 1974, a return to stability, and then a sharp rise in 1978 to a huge peak around 1980), with a graph of inflation from 2013-2023, showing a large peak in 2021 coinciding with the post-COVID economic recovery. The implication is clear, that inflation should somehow spike again starting in early 2026... Pure fantasy.

H/t @arpitrage.bsky.social for the callback. Was it all priced in, this whole time?

1 month ago 8 1 2 0

Truth nuke: so is Texas, much to the frustration of their residents

1 month ago 1 0 0 0

I had a 6-foot high snow pile in front of my house until last week... What a crazy winter.

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
A snow-covered window

A snow-covered window

"I can't see out my window right now, but the last time I could, the weather was fine, so I'm assuming it hasn't snowed and the weather is fine right now"

2 months ago 0 1 0 0

"Discussion about potential action amounted to baseless speculation before an announcement from the president, the official said."
Did this "white house official" really need to go on background to parrot this line?

2 months ago 1 0 0 0

Brown dog is Orion, black dog's name escapes me

2 months ago 1 0 0 0

Yep, that's my interpretation as well

"As an exception, it is possible to solder rails of different grades of steel, keeping in mind that in order to make said solder you must use the charge corresponding to the **lesser** grade steel between both rails, following UNE-EN 13674-1"

2 months ago 2 0 0 0
Video

Lots going on in Perry Park (Somerville)!

2 months ago 6 0 2 0
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Same with Burlington/Plattsburgh for Montreal. Very aspirational for ROC.

3 months ago 2 0 3 0

Senator, do you regret your vote confirming the primary instigator of this war, Marco Rubio, to the post of Secretary of State?

3 months ago 23 2 1 0
Preview
a close up of a woman 's face with a caption that says estupido ! ALT: a close up of a woman 's face with a caption that says estupido !
3 months ago 13 2 0 0

this is all happening because 80,000 people in the 6 states where votes actually count googled "joe bidon still presdinant?" on election day morning

3 months ago 3026 407 25 13

Gene's owner sold the restaurant about a year ago and it has noticeably slipped as a result.

4 months ago 1 0 1 0

You also have to have the Dutch outlook on food (which roughly resembles a 50-year-old Midwestern man)

4 months ago 2 0 0 0

Soy farmers are based because our trade policy is entirely oriented around soybean exports

4 months ago 2 0 0 0

They say this just as Waymo is rolling out, repositioning them (and Uber) as dinosaurs

5 months ago 2 0 1 0

Should be extra fancy tonight, it's the first night of "Carmen"

5 months ago 1 0 1 0
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Vito Corleone says, "Look how they massacred my boy."

Vito Corleone says, "Look how they massacred my boy."

6 months ago 0 0 0 0

I thought they were talking about the Bonus Army March!

6 months ago 5 0 0 0

Aeroméxico has a wholly-owned regional (which flies E190s). Canada has AC Jazz and Rouge, but they have scope clauses as well (Rouge has aircraft and route restrictions)

6 months ago 1 0 0 0

The bug is that they're E175s and CRJ900s instead of E190s and A220s, because of US/CA scope clauses (restricting the size and capacity of aircraft flown by the regional airliners).

6 months ago 0 0 1 0

Systematically in the US we see outcomes where a bad status quo is selected over an imperfect improvement because the failures of a bad status quo cannot be laid at the feet of any specific person.

6 months ago 24 4 0 0

Branford NIMBYs are B tier only because CT is an S-tier state. Obviously they aren't building any housing (why do you think all your tradesmen are commuting from Bloomfield?), but they aren't also disrupting a major infrastructure project. They should consider putting chicanes up on I-95.

8 months ago 1 0 0 0

anyone working in security knows
that tools can be used for good or for evil
but dont forget they are often used for stupid

8 months ago 388 77 11 4

It’s funny how the woo woo people said for years that big pharma was holding back a cancer cure because treatment was more profitable, and then they went and created those conditions through their own death-drive idiocy

8 months ago 422 120 6 6

Mr. Powell, I've been very good this year, can I get a lower rate please? 🥺

8 months ago 6 0 0 0
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"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal"

8 months ago 0 0 0 0
8 months ago 19 1 1 0

Isn't the alerter standard on a lot of trains?

8 months ago 1 0 0 0