Read our piece for VOX EU CEPR:
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
And our WP:
www.rfberlin.com/network-pape...

Whether this shift will prove durable is unclear, but it suggests that efforts by mainstream parties to channel anti-immigration discontent – previously effective for the Conservatives and recently attempted by Labour – are no longer succeeding, leaving hostile narratives as strong as ever.

Although our study concludes in 2019, recent UK developments can be read through its lens. The two historically dominant parties are currently commanding only about 35% of the vote combined, while Reform UK is above 30% under Nigel Farage’s strongly anti-immigration platform.

While migration has become more salient for both parties over time, only Conservative MPs react to local exposure: those representing areas with more dispersed AS place greater emphasis on migration, whereas Labour MPs do not. There is no effect of non-dispersed AS.

Looking into mechanisms: we find no impact on British residents’ attitudes, who do not become more hostile to AS when exposed to them. The effect on voting seems to be driven by higher salience of the issue, which we study examining a dataset of all parliamentary speeches from 2004–19.

Similar rightward shifts appear in the five general elections held during our study period and in British Election Study panel data, which allow us to track within-individual changes in voting intentions. We also estimate higher support for ‘Leave’ in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

We find that increases in dispersed AS lead to a sizeable rightward shift in local election outcomes: a one standard deviation rise widens the Conservative–Labour vote-share gap by 3.1 percentage points in favour of the Conservatives. No effect if detected for non-dispersed AS.

We deal with this endogeneity by developing an instrument based on pre-determined public housing quality. Our IV has a strong first stage for dispersed AS, while not predicting – as expected – residential choices of non-dispersed AS (which we instrument with a std network IV).

Although dispersed AS have no-say in choosing the area they are assigned to, we show that there is politics in the allocation: Labour areas persistently receive larger shares.

2/n

In the UK, AS who need free accommodation are dispersed across Local Authorities on a no-choice basis, but those who can support themselves can choose their areas. This opt-out margin enables us to compare the electoral effects of AS subject to different placement regimes in the same context.

WP alert:

In new work with S.Ferro, @alessioromarri.bsky.social and E.Pasini we provide the first causal evaluation of the political impact of asylum seekers (AS) in the UK.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
(a thread: 1/n)

Next on the program, @ffasani.bsky.social presents “Securing European Borders? Enforcement, Politics and Externalisation”.

We look forward to receiving your applications!

Contract duration: 2 years
Gross annual salary: €38,900 (approximately €26,000 net)
Application deadline: November 13, 2025 (12:00 noon)

You can find all the details regarding eligibility and application procedures in the official calls available at the links above.

JOB ALERT

We have opened two post-doc research positions (“Contratti di Ricerca”) at DEMM – Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan:

1. Economics: www.unimi.it/it/ateneo/la...

2. Business Economics and Management: www.unimi.it/it/ateneo/la...

Grafico che riporta l'evoluzione tra il 1990 e il 2024 del requisito minimo di anni di residenza previsto in ciascun paese europeo per potere accedere alla cittadinanza.

L'8 e il 9 giugno in Italia si vota per cinque referendum.

Con @ffasani.bsky.social su La Voce abbiamo spiegato perché il Sì al quesito sulla #cittadinanza beneficerebbe tutti, e ci farebbe fare un passo avanti (anche se riportandoci ad una legge del 1912!).
lavoce.info/archives/107...

#EuropeDay
#gazalastday
#ultimogiornodigaza

on.ft.com/4jHm6ny

Felicitats!! So well deserved!

Open day at @LaStatale SPES - today we introduce our undergraduate programmes to hundreds of high school students

I'll try my best to present our newborn ECON - Behaviour, Data and Policy @DemmUnimi

After the #GermanElections, my humble suggestion for left and centre-left parties across the globe...

(Credits to #MarioDraghi and ostello bello)

❗ Call for papers:
drive.google.com/file/d/16bOU...

📮Submit your papers here: bit.ly/4183vJ8

Let me in, thansk!

#econsky junior reserachers apply for #JEM25 May29-30 in Milan!

All info below

L'Italia, il Bel Paese che tiene in carcere l'attivista curda #MaysoonMajidi per 10 mesi prima di riconoscerne l'innocenza, mentre i suoi ministri si fanno in 4 per evitare la prigione al generale libico #Almasri , accusato di tortura dalla Corte Penale Internazioanle...

Fasani and Frattini Examine Border Externalization in ECO L'intesa con l'Albania e gli altri accordi che non funzionano ('The arrangement with Albania and other agreements that don't work') - an article by Francesco Fasani and Tommaso Frattini on the effects...

📰 "L’intesa con l’Albania e gli altri accordi che non funzionano" – @ffasani.bsky.social and @tomfratti.bsky.social examine the effectiveness of border externalization policies, including the Italy-Albania protocol, in the ECO magazine. #Migration #Policy

With @jeromevalette.bsky.social & Simone Bertoli, we are thrilled to announce the Call for Papers for the

3rd edition of the Junior Workshop on the Economics of Migration

on 23-24 June 2025 @CERDI, Clermont-Ferrand, France.

Submit until 23 February 2025 on economig2025.sciencesconf.org

Report available at the following link:

www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etud...

My first post on Bluesky!

"NEW APPROACHES TO LABOUR MARKET INTEGRATION OF MIGRANTS AND REFUGEES"

For the EU Parliament, I reviewed over 160 studies from econ, pol science, sociology, migration studies, etc. on #migrant and #refugee #integration