The internet has peaked.... again!

bsky.app/profile/70sb...

The source:

bsky.app/profile/jame...

This but retooled in reaction to the Greens not liking industrialised solar PV or whatever they call it.

Little hint: you only get truly cheap PV when you're rolling out 100s MWs and you have a portfolio to balance CfD, merchant/storage and PPAs.

Get that through only community solar, you chumps.

We've done the whole circle now and we're back to 9 days ago. Ship tracking data now becomes the rock star again to see if this latest 'reopening' actually means anything...

Markets believe it means something (copium etc), and it may well do, but the proof will only come from AIS data.

It's either

a) we only know of one route where mines are definitely not - we've lost track of the mines. Is there any mines? What is a mine? If you say mine enough it starts to sound weird.

b) keep tankers in a nice neat single file so we can reassert control at a moment's notice if we need to.

a man in a suit and tie is carrying a model of a ship that says ' donald trump ' on it ALT: a man in a suit and tie is carrying a model of a ship that says ' donald trump ' on it

Of course, crude has absolutely cratered by similar levels too.

Get in there and get that jet fuel into Europe now! Some of us have got summer plans and it would be nice not to have to worry about it.

Front month NBP breaks below 100p/th for the first time since it kicked off in the Middle East.

On the back of Iran declaring the Strait now open, at least during the fragile ceasefire period, prices have lost 10%...off a cliff style.

Good news.!?

Yeh, kind of looks that way if this quote is in anyway related to reality:

bsky.app/profile/fint...

Did I say that? Or did I say:

"is keeping the absolute worst case scenario at bay for now"

Crude (futures) pricing have come off quite a lot today (~4% down) - which is probably something to do with the below.

A.K.A There is no *real* blockade, it is all nonsense, and a trickle of tankers is keeping the absolute worst case scenario at bay for now.

And as an aside - another reason why I don't think they will go for this is unintended consequences. Even decisions, which on the face of them, appear quite marginal or insignificant have butterfly effects that ripple right through the system.

Perfect example below:

bsky.app/profile/noti...

And with some big AR3 and AR4 wind farms to come in the next 1-2 years plus tonnes of PV - I don't sense actually a big incentive for government to rip up marginal pricing just yet.

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

As an example, take a look at a quick proxy: tariff tracker data.

Gas prices: jumping above price cap levels

Electricity prices: Not troubling the scorers on the positive side

Why? It's been quite windy. Breaking the link in action.

bsky.app/profile/ener...

It's an Easter Egg because DESNZ has already shown its hand during REMA. It has no appetite to embark on major market overhauls (via zonal pricing outcome) so I suspect very heavily it will opt for letting the air out slowly than going for the big rip.

But the good news: it's happening now...

Reeves looking to break link between gas cost and electricity prices Chancellor wants to reduce impact of gas on market prices, as it almost always sets price of electricity in UK

Don't worry Chancellor, 'GaryBunchofNumbers' on Twitter said 'just do it'. Easy.

But actually, there is an Easter Egg in the article showing how it will go from @dharavyas.bsky.social:

"Over time, that will decrease as we get more renewables on to the system”

www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Robin is of course correct, but you can't help raise a smile when you get the Tufton Street lot saying "wind shouldn't get subsidies" and when they don't trigger CfDs, they scream "no, not like that!"

GB/Europe got away with any late winter/early Spring US LNG blowback when things kicked off in the Middle East, just because the Gulf area had to get rid of excess gas.

If it's cold in October (and Qatari LNG is still knackered in some way) - then it's a live scenario.

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

"borked"? That's a new one on me.

Then we have the post-COVID, post-Ukraine inflationary madness hit offshore wind projects coming after that, so enjoy it while you can.

But...the CfD system is churning out ever greater volumes of sub-wholesale price solar PV so we can just ignore AR6/7 wind...

bsky.app/profile/tomh...

It begins. The wave of AR3/AR4 mega projects at bargain basement prices (e.g. Sofia is ~£55/MWh in 2026 money) is starting to wake up.

Dogger Bank A and B emerging, too.

Hornsea 3 just around the corner.

All of which will be highly competitive with prevailing wholesale prices.

Also interesting to note that the Head of the IEA invoked Dire Straits in an answer on Jet Fuel and then proceed to make absolutely no reference to any Dire Straits song.

Disappointing, really.

Money for Nothing? Brothers in Arms? Love Over Gold?

Could have worked them all in. Be better Fatih.

It's potentially interesting that crude futures have barely budged despite the latest press conference today from the US Admin which included very spikey language on the 'blockade' and general willingness to extend the conflict with Iran (even longer).

Few weeks ago futures would be pinging about.

I'm not one of those guys...

Canopies should come up when you run out of easy to develop land. France ain't lacking that.

In fact, France has bigger problems around integration of renewables with nuclear which is probably a policy undercurrent here and why it is fading away as a rule.

I've sat in conversations with supermarket asset managers where canopies have come up - they are so defensive of car parks, absolutely integral to the business model.

EV chargers do bring some similar challenges (wider spaces) but they bring better dwell times so can mitigate it a bit.

Sure someone will yell "Euro Disney did it!"

Well congrats to Euro Disney. Edge cases exist everywhere and you get the circumstances just right...guess what? It works!

But for your run of the mill supermarket, which is going to be the vast majority of car park real estate, sorry but it's junk.

Solar on car parks and electric vehicle charging: call for evidence

So it's junk legislation, dreamt up in a rush right in the teeth of a crippling gas/energy crisis in '22 (and when half the French nuclear fleet was falling over as well) which I would very much hope that the UK government are not tempted to try and emulate...oh wait.

www.gov.uk/government/c...

So lots of places didn't like this legislation. Legal challenges came in and the exemptions had to be introduced...and there are some doozys.

"Prove it is uneconomical and you are exempt" - well, yeh that's most of them (it's hugely capex intensive, remember?)

2 cont)...by economically tied I mean the amount of car park spaces is specifically designed to accommodate enough customers for the supermarket floor space (there are formulas!) and it all ties into peak time (Xmas). If you put canopies in you lose *a lot* of spaces, you kill the supermarket.

Firstly, the 'mandatory' part.

Absolutely bonkers. Car parks are typically terrible places for PV on two fronts:

1) Sooooo capex intensive vs any other solar PV option, especially retrofitting them.

2) Many car parks are economically tied to where they are (usually a supermarket)...cont..

So I see this banded around quite a bit like France passed the legislation and that was it...well not quite.

First there were legal challenges and then the exemptions starting rolling in...the legislation is quietly dead. France has also downgraded PV targets in PPE3 roadmap.

More detail below.