Highlights ๐ฆ
- Folk are quite pessimistic about the state of the country
- The SNP's core support base is losing faith
- But the party's continued dominance of that camp is boosting their chances
- Independence attitudes remain strongly polarised by age cohort
New blog ๐ฐ๐ณ๏ธ
What's the mood of the country going into the election? Which issues do voters have in mind? Why are the SNP still favourites to win? And what about independence?
@frasmcm.bsky.social's new long read reviews trends in public opinion since 2021 ๐ฆ
scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/04/16/f...
Four weeks to go! ๐ณ๏ธ
We'll be publishing analysis on our blog every Thurs + Tues, looking at data beyond the immediate horse-race ๐๐
First up, @cjcarman.bsky.social on what Scots think about changes to voting rights in recent years!
scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/04/09/e...
We're all very proud of our friend and former SES researcher Dr Marta Miori ๐คฉ ๐ฅณ
Table showig the stated results
Our projection on the final Scoop/YouGov poll by @scotvoting.bsky.social
๐๏ธ SNP โ 57
๐น Lab โ 15
๐ณ Con โ 9
๐ฑ GP โ 16
๐ค LD โ 9
โก๏ธ Ref โ 23
โช Other โ 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
๐จ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ FINAL SCOOP POLL BEFORE MAY IS OUT
Crosstabs here: scottishelections.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
Trends since 2021 with our final numbers ๐๐ป
More on our Public Opinion Dashboard: scottishelections.ac.uk/dashboard/
BJPolS abstract discussing the impact of political scandals on perceptions of leaders, focusing on the UK and Scotland. The study explores themes like containment and contrast in institutional reactions to such scandals.
NEW -
Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB
- @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
New blog on indyref mandate ๐ณ๏ธ
By our PI @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, this blog investigates attitudes to #indyref2 timing and whether there is a middle ground on the "mandate" question ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐ฌ๐ง
Particularly relevant given the FM has set out @snp.org's stall
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/09/03/i...
Older voters became more pro-union post-2014/16 and younger voters became more pro-indy and the elderly are a bigger cohort so it all came out in the wash!
Finally, while the salience of independence continues to fall, #indyref2 views remain closely divided and seemingly won't budge ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟโ๏ธ๐ฌ๐ง
Opinions are incredibly polarised across age groups, and the working-age population aren't turning against it even with a @teamlabouruk.bsky.social govt. in London ๐
Vote intention is stabilising ahead of 2026 ๐ณ๏ธ
@reformukscotland.bsky.social's rapid increase has plateaued and @snp.org remain on ~30% ๐คท๐ป
But @scottishlabour.bsky.social need to close the gap again if they hope to make @anassarwar.bsky.social FM ๐น
@scottories.bsky.social struggles persist ๐ค
On issues, the constitutional question has substantially declined in relevance in the last couple of years ๐ชง
Scots remain overwhelmingly preoccupied with the state of the economy, the health service, education and increasingly immigration and housing ๐๏ธ
Government performance evaluations are similar. First Minister @johnswinney.bsky.social seems to have arrested but not reversed the decline ๐ซท๐ป
Meanwhile, views of the newish
@10dowingstreet.bsky.social have only improved marginally over its predecessor ๐ช
Scots have become significantly more pessimistic about the country's direction since covid, but attitudes seem to have stabilised over the past year ๐ฅฑ
๐ฆBig Scoop tracker update ๐
We've fully updated our handy page of time series public opinion measures, added new visualisations and made it much easier to find.
And we've renamed it the SES Opinion Dashboard ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐ง๐ฝโ๐คโ๐ง๐ป
Summary ๐งต
scottishelections.ac.uk/dashboard/
As Trump jets over to Scotland, take a look at
@cjcarman.bsky.social's excellent blog on Scottish attitudes the mercurial US President ๐๐ป
๐บ๐ธ New blog! ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ
@cjcarman.bsky.social takes a closer look at our data on Trump support in Scotland ahead of the US President's visit.
How popular is DJT? Are Reform UK supporters MAGA? And does the support of young men travel across the pond? Find out below!
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/07/18/t...
Essay Prize 2025 ๐
๐ง๐ปโ๐ Undergraduate and school pupil competitions
๐ Deadline 6th July
Fantastic judging panel of @simeonkerr.bsky.social, @yougov.co.uk's Abigail Axe-Browne and @edinburghpir.bsky.social's own Alan Convery!
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/06/09/e...
Our postdoc @eoghanly.bsky.social has co-developed
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections ๐ค๐งฎ
You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.
More info โฌ๏ธ
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...
Today's lecture will not only be packed with information and insight but is also very timely (since it's a day on which the long-term potential of economic insecurity to divide -- or to be used to divide -- the electorate has been on graphic display). See you there.
A warm welcome to all colleagues arriving from around the UK and Europe ๐ฅ
Scottish Election Study Bonanza Week continues this afternoon with the start of our two-day Scottish politics academic conference in Edinburgh, co-hosted by @ccc-research.bsky.social
SES Annual Lecture by @profjanegreen.bsky.social follows this evening! Sign up ๐๐ป
t.ly/xKW3b
Iโm in Edinburgh for this on Monday. Really looking forward to seeing colleagues and sharing our work on volatility, age, and economic insecurity.
@nuffieldcollege.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social @britishelectionstudy.com
Seen the headlines in today's Scottish papers? Join
@scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...
Our annual SES Bonanza Week kicks off this Thursday with
The Stevenson Trust for Citizenship at
@uofglasgow.bsky.social
!
Join us for our take on next year's Scottish Parliament election ๐ค ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ
โฐ 1800-1930
๐ 203 Boyd Orr Building, Glasgow
Sign up ๐๐ผ
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...
This year's Scottish Election Study Annual Lecture, delivered by our outstanding colleague and @britishelectionstudy.com Co-Director @profjanegreen.bsky.social, will take place a week on Monday in Edinburgh! ๐ฉ๐ผโ๐ซ
Details and sign up below ๐ฝ
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/scottish-e...
Massive congrats to all the other prize winners, particularly our @edinburghpir.bsky.social colleagues, and thank you to the PSA and the judges for this recognition. We had a great time in Brum and look forward to seeing everyone in Oxford next year!
@ailsahenderson.bsky.social and @frasmcm.bsky.social were delighted to receive the 2025 @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social Pippa Norris Prize on behalf of the whole SES team for a research group's "outstanding contribution to advancing knowledge in Political Studies" earlier this week at #PSA25 ๐ฅณ
Today's the deadline for abstracts for our Scottish politics conference to be held a year out from the next election!
There's no registration fee and full papers aren't required.
Submit here ๐๐ป
www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/news-and-opi...
๐ป NEW DATA
The Scottish political landscape has evolved greatly in recent months and a lot has been said about support for
@reformukscotland.bsky.social with little available analysis.
@frasmcm.bsky.social and @ailsahenderson.bsky.social took a look at the party's support on our blog t.ly/PjCxX