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Posts by Aaron Strauss

US Southern Command: On April 19, at the direction of #SOUTHCOM commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan, Joint Task Force Southern Spear conducted a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations. Intelligence confirmed the vessel was transiting along known narco-trafficking routes in the Caribbean and was engaged in narco-trafficking operations. Three male narco-terrorists were killed during this action. No U.S. military forces were harmed. @DeptofWar #OpSouthernSpear
UNCLASSIFIED

US Southern Command: On April 19, at the direction of #SOUTHCOM commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan, Joint Task Force Southern Spear conducted a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations. Intelligence confirmed the vessel was transiting along known narco-trafficking routes in the Caribbean and was engaged in narco-trafficking operations. Three male narco-terrorists were killed during this action. No U.S. military forces were harmed. @DeptofWar #OpSouthernSpear UNCLASSIFIED

We murdered three more people in boats today

1 day ago 1440 721 83 61

This Palantir manifesto notably does not contain the word “democracy“ and says nothing about giving people power of self-determination or ability to shape society. The final point is a nearly explicit rejection of pluralistic democracy.

2 days ago 12 5 2 1
Page 1 of a legal Judgment document from the United States District Court, District of Oregon for Case No. 6:25-cv-02409-MTK, filed on 04/18/26. The plaintiffs are listed as "STATE OF OREGON, et al.," and the defendants are "ROBERT F. KENNEDY, JR., in his official capacity as Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, et al." The document is from United States District Judge Kasubhai. It outlines that final judgment is entered in favor of the Plaintiffs on Counts I, II, III, and IV. Item 3 states the Court holds unlawful, sets aside, and vacates the "Declaration of the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services RE: Safety, Effectiveness and Professional Standards of Care for Sex-Rejecting Procedures on Children and Adolescents".

Page 1 of a legal Judgment document from the United States District Court, District of Oregon for Case No. 6:25-cv-02409-MTK, filed on 04/18/26. The plaintiffs are listed as "STATE OF OREGON, et al.," and the defendants are "ROBERT F. KENNEDY, JR., in his official capacity as Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, et al." The document is from United States District Judge Kasubhai. It outlines that final judgment is entered in favor of the Plaintiffs on Counts I, II, III, and IV. Item 3 states the Court holds unlawful, sets aside, and vacates the "Declaration of the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services RE: Safety, Effectiveness and Professional Standards of Care for Sex-Rejecting Procedures on Children and Adolescents".

Page 2 of a legal judgment document for Case 6:25-cv-02409-MTK, filed on April 18, 2026. The text outlines a court order declaring that defendants lack the authority to unilaterally establish standards of care that supersede professionally recognized standards for gender-affirming care in the Plaintiff States. It permanently enjoins defendants and their agents, including the HHS-OIG, from enforcing the "Kennedy Declaration" against providers in those states. The document is dated April 18, 2026, and is signed by United States District Judge Mustafa T. Kasubhai.

Page 2 of a legal judgment document for Case 6:25-cv-02409-MTK, filed on April 18, 2026. The text outlines a court order declaring that defendants lack the authority to unilaterally establish standards of care that supersede professionally recognized standards for gender-affirming care in the Plaintiff States. It permanently enjoins defendants and their agents, including the HHS-OIG, from enforcing the "Kennedy Declaration" against providers in those states. The document is dated April 18, 2026, and is signed by United States District Judge Mustafa T. Kasubhai.

Huge news: the court has entered final judgement in Oregon v Kennedy (HHS trans youth care ban) and has vacated the Kennedy declaration and permanently enjoined its enforcement to target gender clinics.

storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

2 days ago 2202 570 18 42

Among a mountain of bad-faith factual claims and frivolous constitutional arguments, Eastman's ultimate plan was for VP Pence (or Sen. Grassley) to *knowingly violate the Electoral Count Act* and let SCOTUS block any subsequent lawsuits on political question grounds. Just shit from start to finish.

4 days ago 1001 264 25 20

So at the risk of maybe overreading this and making an educated guess, I think I can guess what specifically Wyden is talking about.

I think it's about use of AI (LLMs) by FBI to surveil American communications without a warrant

4 days ago 2593 860 25 65
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Does that donation surge translate to votes? Modestly. Confrontational protests — and especially conservative ones — are associated with roughly a 1–2 percentage point increase in Democratic vote share in the following election.

Small effects, rarely realized.

5 days ago 7 2 1 0

Down for me as well as I try to pay 2026 estimated taxes

IRS under Trump:
• Fewer audits of wealthy
• Drop successful Free File program
• Broken website when taxes due

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

1 week ago 1 0 1 0
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Acetaminophen Exposure During Pregnancy and the Risk of Autism in Offspring This cohort study evaluates the potential association between prenatal acetaminophen exposure and risk of autism in Danish national registers.

In another massive data set of more than 1.5 million children ‌born between 1997 and 2022, the use of Tylenol during pregnancy was NOT associated with autism, even after accounting for ​individual risk factors. Autism was diagnosed in 1.8% of children exposed to Tylenol and 3% of the unexposed group.

1 week ago 481 196 11 11
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I respect this effort but I find it unconvincing. We've *seen* a major price level shock in the US before, during the 1970s. To test what that did to sentiment, we can compare Conference Board consumer confidence data to unemployment/inflation. The result gives a respectable model of confidence. 1/3

1 week ago 247 36 10 18

I propose a statue of Margaret Hamilton outside MIT based on this picture

1 week ago 2 0 0 0

These fucking people. There's no hell hot enough.

1 week ago 25 2 1 0
DHS deported a US citizen to Mexico after threatening him with prison time: report A man deported to Mexico has claimed that officers not only refused to see his documents but accused him of fraud

Another deported U.S. citizen.

www.the-independent.com/news/world/a...

1 week ago 621 311 8 12
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“'I’ve never experienced anything like this in my entire life,' the congresswoman said, fighting back tears.

"She described the way people were laying down inside as “like sardines.”

“'It is frightening in there,' she said. 'It is disgusting'..."

azmirror.com/2026/04/10/i...

1 week ago 16406 7811 800 525

This article shows that Arizona has experienced a 47% decline in SNAP enrollment or about ~400,000 people losing critical support to buy groceries in the last year. This decline is not because of more jobs: the AZ economy (same as U.S. overall) has been treading water, unemployment has increased.

1 week ago 618 222 8 3
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Kerry: I was part of the any number of conversations with Netanyahu.

Psaki: Pitching the US strike Iran?

Kerry: Yes, he wanted us to strike. He came to President Obama. He made a presentation to ask to strike. President Obama refused. President Biden refused. President Bush refused.

1 week ago 9192 3283 272 230
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Just as Trump moderated on Soc Sec, Medicare, and abortion while cultivating an earned media following to spread his ugly xenophobia and exploit voter fears.

1 week ago 0 0 0 0
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And I certainly agree that this is all a false choice. Our campaigns need to meet voters where they are policy-wise AND have a mechanism to spread that message.

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/o...

politicalscience.stanford.edu/events/vladi...

1 week ago 1 0 1 0
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Actually, @daschloz.bsky.social , multiple papers show that voters DID respond to their personal health insurance situation--either aided by the ACA, or harmed by premium increases

Of course, effects decay and voters rightly ask "What have you done for me lately?"

journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

1 week ago 0 0 2 0

I spend a lot of time visiting city workers during the day — but New York never sleeps, and neither do the people who keep it running. Tonight, I met up with a few incredible teams working the night shift.

1 week ago 7033 663 77 107
Just 2% of Immigration Court Filings Based on Alleged Criminal Activity in February 2026

Just 2% of Immigration Court Filings Based on Alleged Criminal Activity in February 2026
tracreports.org/reports/771/

1 week ago 435 159 5 6

BREAKING: Delta reports $15.9 billion in revenue for the first three months of 2026.

The airline expects $1 billion in profits for the quarter, 10% higher than last year despite soaring gas prices.

Delta also raised fees yesterday to $45 for one check bag and $55 for a second.

1 week ago 331 115 7 20
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Newly Obtained Video of Minneapolis Shooting Undermines ICE Account

Remember when DHS agents had no choice but to shoot two Venezuelan men because the men had attacked them with a snow shovel and a broomstick?

New video shows they were lying about that one, too.

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/u...

2 weeks ago 4604 1733 56 55
Veiled Power: How Rosenwald Teachers Quietly Shaped
the Civil Rights Movement

Omar Wasow∗ Jacob M. Grumbach∗

April 1, 2026

Abstract
What precipitates the collapse of seemingly durable social orders like Jim Crow? During the 1920s, approximately 5,000 “Rosenwald Schools” were built across the rural South through a partnership between philanthropist Julius Rosenwald and Black communities who raised matching funds, donated land, and petitioned local governments. Local elites saw vocational training that would preserve the racial order. We argue Black educators used this accommodationist cover to build veiled capacity: organizational infrastructure for collective action behind a veil
of compliance. Counties with more Rosenwald Schools show greater civil rights protest in the 1960s. Mediation analysis reveals that pre-existing social capital predicted protest through Rosenwald teacher placements, not enrollment. Instrumental variable models suggest the effect is not driven by community selection. Moving from no Rosenwald teachers to the 75th percentile predicts 45% more protest. The political effects of education may depend less on what elites intend than on what educators build where elites cannot see.

Veiled Power: How Rosenwald Teachers Quietly Shaped the Civil Rights Movement Omar Wasow∗ Jacob M. Grumbach∗ April 1, 2026 Abstract What precipitates the collapse of seemingly durable social orders like Jim Crow? During the 1920s, approximately 5,000 “Rosenwald Schools” were built across the rural South through a partnership between philanthropist Julius Rosenwald and Black communities who raised matching funds, donated land, and petitioned local governments. Local elites saw vocational training that would preserve the racial order. We argue Black educators used this accommodationist cover to build veiled capacity: organizational infrastructure for collective action behind a veil of compliance. Counties with more Rosenwald Schools show greater civil rights protest in the 1960s. Mediation analysis reveals that pre-existing social capital predicted protest through Rosenwald teacher placements, not enrollment. Instrumental variable models suggest the effect is not driven by community selection. Moving from no Rosenwald teachers to the 75th percentile predicts 45% more protest. The political effects of education may depend less on what elites intend than on what educators build where elites cannot see.

Excited to share new paper w/ @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social: "Veiled Power: How Rosenwald Teachers Quietly Shaped the Civil Rights Movement"

The puzzle: did ~5,000 segregated schools built in rural South emphasizing “manual labor” strengthen or weaken Jim Crow? 🧵 omarwasow.com/wasow_grumba...

2 weeks ago 360 129 8 19

I for one appreciate that @kairyssdal.bsky.social, unusually for journalists, is meeting the moment with the correct level of incredulity (and, as the moment merits, off-air f bombs), rather than giving this administration an undeserved presumption of regularity

2 weeks ago 24 2 0 0
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Happy Passover!

2 weeks ago 177 28 91 4
A choropleth map of U.S. residential electricity bills by state as of March 2026, from the MIT/Heatmap Electricity Price Hub. States are shaded from green (lowest, ~$70/month) to red (highest, ~$198/month). Texas, Alabama, and South Carolina appear among the most expensive; Colorado and surrounding Rocky Mountain states appear among the cheapest. A timeline slider spans 2020–2026. Below the map, a chart shows the national average bill oscillating between roughly $100–$200/month with strong seasonality. A summary statistic shows the national average residential electricity bill rose 28.0% from March 2021 to March 2026 (12-month trailing average).

A choropleth map of U.S. residential electricity bills by state as of March 2026, from the MIT/Heatmap Electricity Price Hub. States are shaded from green (lowest, ~$70/month) to red (highest, ~$198/month). Texas, Alabama, and South Carolina appear among the most expensive; Colorado and surrounding Rocky Mountain states appear among the cheapest. A timeline slider spans 2020–2026. Below the map, a chart shows the national average bill oscillating between roughly $100–$200/month with strong seasonality. A summary statistic shows the national average residential electricity bill rose 28.0% from March 2021 to March 2026 (12-month trailing average).

Electricity prices are essential to the US economy. But it’s very hard to get recent, granular data on them.

We’re changing that. Today, @heatmap.news and MIT released the ELECTRICITY PRICE HUB, a new tool breaking down local power rates and bills going back to 2021. electricity.heatmap.news

2 weeks ago 281 100 14 1
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The Senate passed Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus bill – here’s what’s next The Democratic-led House now plans to vote on the Senate legislation Tuesday so that President Joe Biden can sign it into law early in the week.

Weird one. Ossoff and Warnock delivered! www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/06/the-senate-passes-biden-stimulus-whats-next.html

3 weeks ago 9 0 0 0

ESTABLISHING THE TASK FORCE TO ELIMINATE FRAUD
AND THEN SHAKE DOWN THE GUYS CONVICTED OF FRAUD FOR A LITTLE SUGAR

3 weeks ago 319 114 9 1
LAPD officers arrest a protester dressed as the Statue of Liberty outside a federal building during a ‘Kings Day’ protest. (Connor Sheets/Los Angeles Times)

LAPD officers arrest a protester dressed as the Statue of Liberty outside a federal building during a ‘Kings Day’ protest. (Connor Sheets/Los Angeles Times)

A remarkable photo from #NoKings in DTLA from Connor Sheets of @latimes.com www.latimes.com/california/l...

3 weeks ago 13632 5064 165 456