US vs international stocks.. still the 3rd-worst start to a year in the last 30 Augur Infinity $SPY $VEU

End of chapter 8: Unwed since the death of his first wife on the eve of the crusade, Philip sealed the alliance by marrying Cnut’s sister. In so doing, however, he made a serious mistake, perhaps the most serious mistake of his reign, one that would plunge both king and kingdom into a religious and legal imbroglio that took two decades to resolve. On 14 August 1193, Philip married Ingeborg of Denmark – and repudiated her the very next day. Chapter 9 heading: The Danish Witch

One reviewer cliche I find annoying is when a work of non-fiction is described as "reads like a novel". But this combination of cliffhanger chapter ending and new chapter heading is ace from @medievalrevolt.bsky.social in House of Lilies.

US stocks have seemed remarkably unbothered by everything going on. But that may be because earnings forecasts have climbed higher. As @tobyn.bsky.social shows, this has actually been one of the biggest valuation drops since the GFC. www.ft.com/content/f269...

Lmao the reason this leaked was because he wanted to buy IDEF, a totally illiquid BlackRock fund that trades ~$100k a day, instead of ITA which trades hundred of millions, so he had his brokers call up BlackRock and ask for a direct creation under his name. There’s so many layers of stupidity here.

$MSFT, the crowded, “obvious winner” in the Mag7 when ChatGPT came out — they own the equity! They’ll sell more compute! — has been the single worst performer in the group

Much worse than “obvious loser” $GOOG

And repeat

As we kick off the week, a reminder that market pricing of growth ahead (Stocks vs. LT Bonds) hasn't changed at all since the start of the Iran war.

WTI-Brent spread …

In theory is crucial here…

GS: Higher oil prices: less shocking than in the past

Impact of a 1% deterioration in terms of trade on GDP growth, pp

Who would’ve thought in 2026 we would be seeing the ECB note Greece’s achievements. Well done Greece 🇬🇷

H/t Verdad Capital

verdadcap.com/archive/an-u...

@darioperkins.bsky.social keen to know if you disagree

Wei Li of BlackRock published this and said the bottom left quadrant is a lonely place. It has been since 1999, but not in the years before and arguably not in the years to come as stock bond correlation has returned to positive territory

you know its a crisis when all you can do is stare at markets and the news flow.. and any actual analysis seems kinda pointless 🤣

the issue with "re-running the 1990s boom" - which is now the theme of Trump 2.0 - is that trade policy and the fiscal deficit are pushing in totally THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. Yet we are starting with the same term premium in bonds that we had at the end of the 90s...

US: you're not defending Greenland enough

Denmark & Europe: *put troops in Greenland*

US: no, not like that.

from: @shashj.bsky.social

Love that it’s an ad for insanity

The utterly shameless & widely covered "report" out today, claiming net zero will "cost" £9tn is based on:

* Assuming free fossil-fuel energy, free petrol cars, free gas boilers, free gas power plants etc

AND

* Including climate damages in the "cost" of net zero

I kid you not, it is that stupid

2s10s +68bps, steepest since January 2022

Underrated comment

When a signal is found, it’s no longer a signal 🥲 or they were just extremely unlucky

AAII folks seem to have decided to take the rest of the year off.

Barely any change but notice that the 4 wk ma of bears has finally come down. Not extreme, but a lower low (since April)

Bulls 44.1%
Bears 33.2%

America vs. UK equity culture in a nutshell for young 'savers'. our 20 yr old panicking about having a lower ISA cash savings allowance should take note:

The hot new investment trend is the ‘Total Portfolio Approach’. Does it work? Exploring the buzzy but fuzzy new phenomenon in asset allocation

Banger post on the buzziest (but fuzziest) phenomenon in institutional investing, from @tobyn.bsky.social naturally. on.ft.com/47MeI73

Who knew that gilts loved the idea of broad-based tax measures (i.e., rises) over a charcuterie board of narrow measures. 🤷🏻‍♂️

@erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social hat tip!

I....cant... anymore.....😭

take the change in job openings by industry. Plot it against the change in employment by industry. The sectors with the biggest REDUCTIONS in job openings also saw the largest INCREASES in employment.
US, France, UK all the same story

ChatGPT my ass

Buzzed that @thedailyshot.bsky.social is back!

Lots of factors getting rekt out there. Momentum one example but MS indices for Value (+3.3% today), Quality (+3.1% today), and Beta (-4.3% today) are all seeing super punchy moves.