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Posts by Draper Kauffman

Amazon, which saved $4B in taxes under Trump's Big Ugly Bill, has cut 30,000 jobs since last October.

Verizon, which saved $2B, plans to cut 15,000 jobs this year.

Meta, which saved $3B, plans to lay off 20% or more of its workforce.

Trickle-down economics is a cruel joke.

4 days ago 5876 2426 213 101

Well, dang it all, I’m only moving at 800mph. I feel so sluggish!

2 weeks ago 7 0 1 0
U.S. COVID-19 heat map dated March 30, 2026, based on CDC wastewater data (last updated March 21). States are color-coded by transmission level: very high (dark maroon), high (red), moderate (orange), low (yellow), very low (light yellow), and limited data (striped). West Virginia stands out as the only “very high” state. Maryland, Mississippi, and Wyoming are marked “moderate.” Most other states, including large areas of the West, Midwest, and Northeast, are in “low” or “very low” categories. Some states, including parts of the Midwest and South, show striped shading indicating limited data. Alaska and Hawaii are both in low to very low categories. A note below explains that aside from a few moderate or high areas, most of the U.S. has low or very low transmission, meaning levels are already low and unlikely to drop much further, which may help people plan medical or dental visits with lower exposure risk.

U.S. COVID-19 heat map dated March 30, 2026, based on CDC wastewater data (last updated March 21). States are color-coded by transmission level: very high (dark maroon), high (red), moderate (orange), low (yellow), very low (light yellow), and limited data (striped). West Virginia stands out as the only “very high” state. Maryland, Mississippi, and Wyoming are marked “moderate.” Most other states, including large areas of the West, Midwest, and Northeast, are in “low” or “very low” categories. Some states, including parts of the Midwest and South, show striped shading indicating limited data. Alaska and Hawaii are both in low to very low categories. A note below explains that aside from a few moderate or high areas, most of the U.S. has low or very low transmission, meaning levels are already low and unlikely to drop much further, which may help people plan medical or dental visits with lower exposure risk.

Infographic titled “National COVID-19 Estimates (U.S.)” dated March 30, 2026 (PMC model, pmc19.com/data). It presents estimated infection levels, Long COVID cases, and excess deaths.

Infections section:

Proportion actively infectious: 1 in 170 people (0.6%)
New daily infections: 288,000
Infections in the past week: 2.1 million
Total infections in 2026 so far: 61 million
Cumulative infections per person: 5.14

Long COVID section:

Estimated 14,000 to 58,000 new Long COVID cases per day
Estimated 105,000 to 420,000 new Long COVID cases per week

Excess deaths section:

Estimated 70 to 130 excess deaths per day
Estimated 500 to 900 excess deaths per week

A note at the bottom states that even during this relative “lull,” around 2.1 million Americans are infected weekly, leading to substantial illness and hundreds of eventual deaths.

Infographic titled “National COVID-19 Estimates (U.S.)” dated March 30, 2026 (PMC model, pmc19.com/data). It presents estimated infection levels, Long COVID cases, and excess deaths. Infections section: Proportion actively infectious: 1 in 170 people (0.6%) New daily infections: 288,000 Infections in the past week: 2.1 million Total infections in 2026 so far: 61 million Cumulative infections per person: 5.14 Long COVID section: Estimated 14,000 to 58,000 new Long COVID cases per day Estimated 105,000 to 420,000 new Long COVID cases per week Excess deaths section: Estimated 70 to 130 excess deaths per day Estimated 500 to 900 excess deaths per week A note at the bottom states that even during this relative “lull,” around 2.1 million Americans are infected weekly, leading to substantial illness and hundreds of eventual deaths.

Table titled “COVID-19 State Prevalence Estimates (U.S.)” dated March 30, 2026 (PMC model, pmc19.com/data; data last updated March 21). It lists U.S. states with CDC transmission level, estimated percent actively infectious, and the probability someone in a room of 10, 25, 50, or 100 people is infectious.

Most states are classified as Very Low or Low, with estimated active infections generally between 0.4% and 1.4% (roughly 1 in 70 to 1 in 260 people). Example values: California, Colorado, and Maine are about 1 in 222 (0.5%), while Georgia is higher at 1 in 73 (1.4%).

Higher prevalence stands out in a few areas:

Mississippi (Moderate): 1 in 43 (2.3%), with a 91% chance at least one person is infectious in a group of 100
Maryland (Moderate): 1 in 63 (1.6%), up to 80% chance in a group of 100

Even in “Very Low” states, group risk rises with size—for example, around 20–36% chance in a group of 50 and 31–53% in a group of 100.

Some states (e.g., Arkansas, Michigan, Mississippi) are marked with an asterisk indicating limited data reporting.

Table titled “COVID-19 State Prevalence Estimates (U.S.)” dated March 30, 2026 (PMC model, pmc19.com/data; data last updated March 21). It lists U.S. states with CDC transmission level, estimated percent actively infectious, and the probability someone in a room of 10, 25, 50, or 100 people is infectious. Most states are classified as Very Low or Low, with estimated active infections generally between 0.4% and 1.4% (roughly 1 in 70 to 1 in 260 people). Example values: California, Colorado, and Maine are about 1 in 222 (0.5%), while Georgia is higher at 1 in 73 (1.4%). Higher prevalence stands out in a few areas: Mississippi (Moderate): 1 in 43 (2.3%), with a 91% chance at least one person is infectious in a group of 100 Maryland (Moderate): 1 in 63 (1.6%), up to 80% chance in a group of 100 Even in “Very Low” states, group risk rises with size—for example, around 20–36% chance in a group of 50 and 31–53% in a group of 100. Some states (e.g., Arkansas, Michigan, Mississippi) are marked with an asterisk indicating limited data reporting.

Continuation of the table “COVID-19 State Prevalence Estimates (U.S.)” dated March 30, 2026 (PMC model; data last updated March 21). It lists additional states with CDC transmission level, estimated percent actively infectious, and the probability someone in a room of 10, 25, 50, or 100 people is infectious.

Most states remain in Very Low or Low categories, with active infections generally around 0.4%–1.3% (roughly 1 in 75 to 1 in 315 people). Examples:

Nevada: 1 in 260 (0.4%)
New York: 1 in 222 (0.5%)
Texas: 1 in 190 (0.5%)
South Dakota: 1 in 75 (1.3%)

Higher prevalence areas stand out:

West Virginia (Very High): 1 in 25 (3.9%), with a 98% chance at least one person is infectious in a group of 100
Wyoming (Moderate): 1 in 48 (2.1%), with up to 88% chance in a group of 100

Group risk increases with size even in low-prevalence states—for many, around 20–40% chance in a group of 50 and 30–60% in a group of 100.

Some states (e.g., North Dakota, Oklahoma) are marked with limited data reporting, and a note indicates North Dakota has no direct data, with estimates averaged from nearby states (MN, MT, SD). Another note explains Puerto Rico provides only qualitative estimates, not precise quantitative data.

Continuation of the table “COVID-19 State Prevalence Estimates (U.S.)” dated March 30, 2026 (PMC model; data last updated March 21). It lists additional states with CDC transmission level, estimated percent actively infectious, and the probability someone in a room of 10, 25, 50, or 100 people is infectious. Most states remain in Very Low or Low categories, with active infections generally around 0.4%–1.3% (roughly 1 in 75 to 1 in 315 people). Examples: Nevada: 1 in 260 (0.4%) New York: 1 in 222 (0.5%) Texas: 1 in 190 (0.5%) South Dakota: 1 in 75 (1.3%) Higher prevalence areas stand out: West Virginia (Very High): 1 in 25 (3.9%), with a 98% chance at least one person is infectious in a group of 100 Wyoming (Moderate): 1 in 48 (2.1%), with up to 88% chance in a group of 100 Group risk increases with size even in low-prevalence states—for many, around 20–40% chance in a group of 50 and 30–60% in a group of 100. Some states (e.g., North Dakota, Oklahoma) are marked with limited data reporting, and a note indicates North Dakota has no direct data, with estimates averaged from nearby states (MN, MT, SD). Another note explains Puerto Rico provides only qualitative estimates, not precise quantitative data.

US Weekly COVID update: Mar 30, 2026

🔸1 in 170 Actively Infectious
🔸288,000 Daily Infections
🔸2,100,000 Infections In The Past Week
🔸61,000,000 Infections in 2026
🔸105,000 to 420,000 Weekly Long COVID Cases
🔸500 to 900 Weekly Excess Deaths

Source: pmc19.com/data/

3 weeks ago 59 35 2 1

Georgette Heyer and Regency romances. If Austin created the genre, Heyer completely rebooted it. It’s hard to think of any non-Goths between the two that are still being read. People look down on it, but it’s still a $1.5 billion market, and everything post-Heyer is heavily influenced by her.

3 weeks ago 15 0 1 0
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March, 19-21: God is a comedian A stiff drink is recommended

From this truly exceptional summary of where we are at. A blow by blow account of the complete, 360 degree, full spectrum, thermo nuclear levels of insanity and incompetence that could yet doom us all. no01.substack.com/p/march-19-2...

1 month ago 20 11 1 2
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1 month ago 27 10 0 1

Look man, I'm just a simple country theoretical physicist and matters of state and war are perhaps beyond me, but -- as a general rule -- when you're at war with someone, is it typical to try to make sure they keep getting money?

1 month ago 63 16 0 0
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The is the federal government telling news stations to provide favorable coverage of the war or their licenses will be pulled.

A truly extraordinary moment.

We aren't on the verge of a totalitarian takeover. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF IT.

Act like it.

1 month ago 31796 13739 2532 1172
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we remain firmly on track for 'republican president leaves the country an omnishambles, next democratic president is punished for not cleaning it up fast enough'

1 month ago 5536 1011 72 88

Incredible opinion. It holds that the common ICE tactic of jumping out of an unidentified rental vehicle and seizing suspected noncitizens while masked violates the Fourth Amendment because the *manner* of the seizure is incompatible with a free society governed by the rule of law.

2 months ago 11790 3905 106 127

Ditto.

2 months ago 0 0 0 0

The sentencing trial for Yoon Suk-yeol will begin in 10 minutes.

2 months ago 522 94 5 48

🧵

2 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Wolfers: This is the most interventionist government of my lifetime. It’s the least conservative government of my lifetime. When you are the richest country in the world, maybe you are not the ones who should be tearing down your existing institutions. But that’s exactly what this president is doing

2 months ago 3370 1040 81 68
Video

Every American needs to watch this:

2 months ago 20699 10383 592 1001
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The US immigrant population generated more in taxes than they received in benefits from all levels of government every year from 1994 to 2023.

The Cato study provides the first-ever 30-year analysis of the fiscal effects of immigration on government budgets.

https://ow.ly/jy8a50Y8kM3

2 months ago 4392 2265 80 318

I’m 78 and get chalazions, so I see my eye docs regularly, and no one has asked me to unmask. Instead they ask if I want THEM to mask, and they do. Just a baggy blue, but hey, it’s better than nothing and I appreciate the courtesy.

(Maryland Vision Center. Good people.)

5 months ago 16 0 1 0

Did it. 5 times. Arduous and painful. No huge sellers, but one has been continuously in print for 45 years and is pretty influential in its niche, so I guess it was worth it.

8 months ago 1 0 0 0
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So, let me get this straight--it's "holy" for parents to ask the government to protect their kids from books with LGBTQ+ characters, but it's "evil" for parents to ask the government why it didn't do more to keep their kids from drowning in a flood.

9 months ago 206 64 10 1
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Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models Climate forcings by greenhouse gases and aerosols cause an imbalance at the top of the atmosphere between the net incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation from Earth. This Earth energy...

Happy to share our paper in ‪@science.org‬ 'Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models' | Science www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

10 months ago 105 35 7 4
Iceland approved the 4-day workweek in 2019, nearly 6 years later, all the predictions made by Generation Z have come true. In 2019, Iceland made headlines by becoming one of the first countries in the world to adopt the four-day working week, not through a general law, but through agreements allowing workers to negotiate ...
10 months ago 5 1 1 2

As is true with universal basic income and universal healthcare, shorter workweeks are also supported by the evidence as being good policy. We should do all three. The only thing preventing them are the fears of those in power who worry about reductions of their ability to coerce and control.

10 months ago 44 13 2 1
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HHS cancels nearly $600 million Moderna contract on vaccines for flu pandemics HHS has notified Moderna that it is canceling a nearly $600 million contract for vaccines for flu strains that could trigger future pandemics.

The Trump administration has killed a $600 million grant to Moderna to develop an mRNA vaccine for H5N1 influenza. @helenbranswell.bsky.social reports. www.statnews.com/2025/05/28/m...

10 months ago 85 53 7 20
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The GOP Tax Bill Is a Dangerous Gamble at a Precarious Moment House Republicans have bet that nothing bad will happen to America’s economic position or energy supply. The evidence suggests that’s a big risk.

The GOP tax bill will significantly increase US carbon pollution over the next decade. In return, it will increase our dependence on foreign oil, blow up the deficit, raise interest rates, make the country’s energy supply more volatile, and weaken strategic industries: heatmap.news/politics/tru...

11 months ago 167 107 4 9
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What Are People Still Doing on X? Imagine if your favorite neighborhood bar turned into a Nazi hangout

I realize posting this here is preaching to the choir. But after the Grok White Genocide thing & Ye essentially launching an exclusive Neo Nazi single on the platform... I felt motivated to write about X and how bizarre it is that so many people (news outlets, celebrities, politicians) use it

10 months ago 6404 1972 256 283
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40 years in TX was enough. We could see the writing on the wall and left 2 years ago for someplace sane and civilized. The question is, did we move far enough? If this is the end of American democracy, being in a blue state won’t help.

10 months ago 38 2 1 0
Red background with white text on read reads: "tell your friends. our access to vaccines is under attack."
below:
"Submit a public comment to the FDA by May 23:
We all need access to updated COVID boosters "
"Our template makes it easy 
(link in bio). Comment at 
tinyurl.com/FDAVaccineMeeting"

Yellow People's CDC in lower right corner.

Red background with white text on read reads: "tell your friends. our access to vaccines is under attack." below: "Submit a public comment to the FDA by May 23: We all need access to updated COVID boosters " "Our template makes it easy (link in bio). Comment at tinyurl.com/FDAVaccineMeeting" Yellow People's CDC in lower right corner.

Red background with white text reads: "Vaccine Access is under attack"
Under it: "The CDC currently recommends the COVID vaccine for people 6 months and up. But the Wall Street Journal reported that HHS is considering no longer reccomending COVID vaccine access to pregnant people, and children. 

Robust scientific evidence shows that updated COVID boosters provide important protection against severe illness for all age groups."
Below
"Comment by May 23 tinyurl.com/FDAVaccineMeeting"

People's CDC logo is in lower right.

Red background with white text reads: "Vaccine Access is under attack" Under it: "The CDC currently recommends the COVID vaccine for people 6 months and up. But the Wall Street Journal reported that HHS is considering no longer reccomending COVID vaccine access to pregnant people, and children. Robust scientific evidence shows that updated COVID boosters provide important protection against severe illness for all age groups." Below "Comment by May 23 tinyurl.com/FDAVaccineMeeting" People's CDC logo is in lower right.

Red background with white text reads: "Vaccine Access is under attack"
Below it: 
"The FDA recently approved the Novavax, but with no scientific basis, restricted it to people over 65 and 12-64 with certain health conditions. These unfounded limitations likely could extend to all COVID vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna). 

We need to tell the FDA to make COVID vaccines available for all.
Use our template (link in bio) and comment by May 23."
And small text: 
"Comment by May 23 tinyurl.com/FDAVaccineMeeting"

People's CDC logo is in lower right.

Red background with white text reads: "Vaccine Access is under attack" Below it: "The FDA recently approved the Novavax, but with no scientific basis, restricted it to people over 65 and 12-64 with certain health conditions. These unfounded limitations likely could extend to all COVID vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna). We need to tell the FDA to make COVID vaccines available for all. Use our template (link in bio) and comment by May 23." And small text: "Comment by May 23 tinyurl.com/FDAVaccineMeeting" People's CDC logo is in lower right.

Our access to COVID vaccines is under attack. It’s more important than ever to make our voices heard by making public comment to the FDA by May 23 at 11:59 PM EST. Use our template available on our substack at peoplescdc.substack.com/p/vaccine-ac...

11 months ago 249 216 8 43
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House On Fire: Why The U.S. Has Most To Lose In A Warming World Home insurance is set to rise across the U.S. as hazards intensify. The firms that insure the insurers are in no doubt about the root cause of the problem.

Yes - here's my latest report on Swiss Re's climate work.

1 year ago 20 9 2 3

📣 As promised last night, here's how many Americans are enrolled in Medicaid, CHIP, Medicare & ACA exchange plans in the *42 House districts* where Republicans won by less than 15 points last fall.

ALL OF THESE ARE POTENTIALLY FLIPPABLE.

I'm posting them in order of how close the 2024 margin was:

1 year ago 222 119 12 49