Plus improving public transport and active infrastructure like Paris can reduce car transport massively

I think the reason Bondi Beach doesn't have a train (it stops 2km away and then you have to catch a bus, was finished in the 70s) is that the locals didn't want all the people from the suburbs coming to their beach.

Sydney Harbour Bridge Cycleway Ramp The Sydney Harbour Bridge Cycleway Ramp is now open! Sydneysiders and visitors can say goodbye to 55 stairs and hello to a new 170m long bike ramp, making riding over Sydney’s stunning harbour accessi...

I love the new cycle ramp up to the Sydney Harbour Bridge, which was built in the teeth of local opposition (which meant that it was designed to be absolutely lovely, to spike complaints), and now that its open, many of them have now said how lovely it is. www.transport.nsw.gov.au/projects/cur...

What did I read in 2025? I’ve just published my annual reading list for 2025 here, (a little late, but its still January!) as I’ve done for over a decade. Do check out the whole thing, but here are a few of my particular h…

I’ve published my annual reading list for 2025 here, as I’ve done for over a decade. Do check out the whole thing, but here are a few of my particular highlights from this year’s books, which, as always, are a bit of an eclectic mixture.actuarialeye.com/2026/01/26/what-did-i-re...

We've literally been working on this for years. Our new database of politicians declared interests is now live. Want to know who has accepted hospitality from Sportsbet, or is a member of a gun club... politicalgadgets.com/Interests/db...

Someone will always do it! "The Opposition’s [NSW, Australia] proposed license plate scheme would require specific rider cohorts [under 18s, commercial, share bikes] to have a government issued license plate attached to an e-bike when in use." nswliberal.org.au/news/e-bike-...

Oh, and unlike many other countries, Australia had very few COVID-19 deaths in 2020, because of those closed borders.

My colleague @rhsl-fiaa.bsky.social who did the international analysis did try some of that analysis early on, but from memory there are too many variables!

Yes we do, so far. Although we do it by cause of death, rather than in aggregate so (for example) cancer deaths stayed on the improvement trajectory throughout the period, whereas some other causes increased or stayed steady.

In 2020 with the borders closed, Australia didn't have a flu season, and so winter deaths were much lower than normal.

In our view, the “new normal” level of mortalitywill continue to improve, but we expect it to stay above the pre-pandemic trend for some time. Our baseline prediction for 2025 implies that the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a three-year pause in mortality improvement. #ends

Graph showing excess mortality for the period 2020-2024 in 40 selected countries across the globe.

Worldwide mortality experience since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2024) shows excess deaths over that period in almost every country measured. Australia (+6%) was below average, and New Zealand (+0.1%) the lowest we measured.

Mortality rates from other causes were quite mixed compared with previous years, with other respiratory diseases (eg pneumonia +10%) and lower respiratory conditions (+5%) higher than anticipated, and deaths from cancer (-2%) and ischaemic heart disease (-3%) lower than the baseline.

Graph showing mortality rates in Australia from December 2019 to December 2024, with waves of high mortality roughly every six months, and the 2024 mortality rates higher than the predicted line of reduction since 2023.

Covid-19 mortality was at a similar level in 2024 as 2023, contrary to our prediction of a reduction in mortality rates.

Graph of standardised mortality rates showing the line of average improvement 2015-2019, and showing that all mortality rates from 2021 onwards were significantly higher than the line assuming improvement continued from 2015, with 2022 furthest away from the line.

You can see a very high level view of mortality rates over the last decade in this graph, which shows the standardised (for age and sex) mortality rate in each calendar year since 2015.

We predicted that overall mortality in Australia would return to the levels of improvement we'd seen before Covid-19. Actual mortality was slightly higher than that (0.4%), but not materially.

The Actuaries Institute of Australia recently published our review of mortality in 2024, which you can find here. content.actuaries.asn.au/resources/re.... A quick summary of our major conclusions #thread.

That's a good question. I'm reading that this set of data essentially uses numbers of deaths from 2015-2019 as the baseline (rather than a mortality rate). If the immigration and ageing patterns are consistent, that isn't an issue, but if they've changed, the projection could be misleading.

Paul Kelly - How To Make Gravy (Official Video) YouTube video by Paul Kelly

God rest ye merry gentlemen for the Christian song and

How to Make Gravy by Paul Kelly for the secular one (very Australian choice)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYqI...

I use carshare (I don't own a car) and its half the price of owning the car. But people still are surprised that I'm happy to pay $30 to drive to my choir rehearsal if the weather is too bad to walk.

When I did the Tour de Mont Blanc (France, Italy, Switzerland) there were public buses AND banned private parking at many trailheads. We were on a group tour, but still used the public buses in most cases as they were the best option! So much better than the overfull parking lots we have here in Oz.

Thanks, yes will fix!

Bottom line is, increased global heating caused by climate change is and will be directly bad for human health and mortality, as well as all the other impacts on our world.

There's a whole lot of caveats around this - we could mitigate the worst experience - but there will also be other causes of death not counted here, like bushfire pollution, natural disasters, and increased tropical disasters.

Further research (repackaged by Our World In data) concluded that heat related deaths would increase by 7.68 per 100,000 people by 2030, 20.39 by 2050, and 49.93 by 2090. that’s an increased death rate of 1%, 3% and 7% in 2030, 2050 and 2090 respectively.

The research I found, from Our World in Data, shows that in the hotter months, Australia is already getting around 0.6% extra deaths every summer due to climate change related heatwaves, or 300-350 extra deaths.

Most deaths in heatwaves don't mention heat on the certificate. You probably pictured someone passing out from heat stroke. But this is not how most people die from “heat”. They die from conditions such as cardiovascular or kidney disease, respiratory infections, or diabetes.

The extra deaths will mostly be at older age groups, and among those who find it harder to shelter from heat. There are likely to be other climate related reasons death rates will increase – extra pollution from fires, more tropical diseases, natural disasters not included in this number.

In Australia, the number of deaths per annum is likely to increase by around 1% by 2030 up to 7% by the end of this century due to global heating.

Climate change and Mortality – what can we expect? In Australia, the number of deaths per annum is likely to increase by around 1% by 2030 up to 7% by the end of this century due to global heating. The extra deaths will mostly be at older age group…

I've written a new blog post about Climate change and mortality in Australia actuarialeye.com/2025/11/10/c...