Coffee, Industry, and Inequality: Lessons from El Salvador, 1950–1968 Why This Case Matters LAC policymakers are increasingly interested in commodity-based industrial strategies. The minerals behind the energy transition, electrification, ICT, and artificial intelligence give the region new leverage. El Salvador, between 1950 and 1968, shows how a commodity boom can finance industrialization. It also shows how that pivot can proceed without democratization or inclusion. Coffee surpluses financed postwar industrialization without disturbing the underlying power structure.

El Salvador 1950–1968: coffee surpluses financed industrialization. Manufacturing went from 7% to ~20% of GDP. The same families kept the land, took the banks, ran industry. When coffee prices fell after 1978, the model collapsed into civil war. Lessons for LAC's mineral era.

Meeting the Flood Pulse: The Development Choices Facing Guyana’s Rupununi An oil boom meets a flood-pulse ecosystem Guyana's 2015 offshore oil discovery has unleashed an extraordinary commodity boom, making roads, large-scale agriculture, and mining realities for the Rupununi. As in all past LAC commodity booms, national decision-makers face a core challenge: how to capture the windfall to ensure durable benefits. But the Rupununi is not empty land. Its biodiversity, Indigenous livelihoods, and resilience to climate extremes are driven by a seasonal flood pulse that researchers are only beginning to map.

Meeting the Flood Pulse: The Development Choices Facing Guyana’s Rupununi

An oil boom meets a flood-pulse ecosystem Guyana's 2015 offshore oil discovery has unleashed an extraordinary commodity boom, making roads, large-scale agriculture, and mining realities for the Rupununi. As in all past LAC…

Nicaragua’s Boom and Fracture, 1950–1970: Lessons for LAC Today Between 1950 and 1970, Nicaragua posted one of Latin America's fastest growth runs of the postwar decades. Real GDP expanded by 5-7 percent annually, exports diversified beyond coffee, and manufacturing emerged for the first time as a regional activity. Yet by the early 1970s, the country had also accumulated deep social fragilities: extreme land concentration, a displaced peasantry, a volatile urban periphery, and a large cohort of underemployed youth.

Between 1950 and 1970, Nicaragua grew 5–7% a year. By 1979, the regime that ran that growth was gone. How one of Latin America's fastest growth runs quietly built the fractures that brought it down — and what today's LAC policymakers should learn.

How an Export Boom Hollowed Out the Honduran State, 1913–1933 In the early twentieth century, Honduras experienced what many policymakers would describe as a success story: a rapid export boom, rising fiscal revenues, modern infrastructure along its coast, and deep integration into global markets. Yet this boom produced a paradox. Economic growth rested on weak state capacity, fragile institutions, and a development path that proved hard to escape. Between 1913 and the late 1920s, the banana enclave transformed Honduras's economy, society, and political order.

Can a country grow rapidly and still end up with a weaker state? Honduras, 1913–1933, suggests yes. A new piece on enclave growth, concession design, and the policy levers that separate lock-in from lasting development.

When Money Isn’t Enough Suriname's Warning for a Region Awash in Windfalls and Shocks Suriname's story between 1972 and 1982 is one of the most instructive development failures in modern LAC history — precisely because, by every indicator available at the time, it should have gone differently. When Suriname became independent from the Netherlands in 1975, it inherited substantial bauxite reserves, a relatively educated population, and macroeconomic stability that most of its neighbors would have envied.

This case study looks at how timing, migration shocks, commodity cycles, and weak institutions turned abundance into an independence trap—with lessons for today’s resource, nearshoring, and green‑transition booms across Latin America and the Caribbean

Architects of Markets Power, Rules, and Change

Architects of Markets
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The Rupununi in the World’s Imagination Historical Narrative, Global Standing, and Policy Stakes I was the director of the Charles Darwin Foundation from 2004 to 2008. When I interviewed for the role in 2003, I was met by barbed wire and the threat of Molotov cocktails. Between 2003 and 2007, governance broke down as conflicts over fisheries escalated, alongside rapid tourism growth, migration, and the spread of invasive species.

The Rupununi in the World’s Imagination

Historical Narrative, Global Standing, and Policy Stakes I was the director of the Charles Darwin Foundation from 2004 to 2008. When I interviewed for the role in 2003, I was met by barbed wire and the threat of Molotov cocktails. Between 2003 and 2007,…

Haiti 1970s: Authoritarian Growth, Fragile Gains Many low-income countries periodically experience rapid growth spurts that appear to signal economic takeoff but later reverse—sometimes with lasting social damage. Haiti in the 1970s offers a clear case of real, visible, and internationally celebrated growth. Export‑assembly manufacturing expanded rapidly, foreign investment increased, and urban wage employment grew. Yet these gains rested on fragile foundations and did not translate into durable state capacity or broad-based welfare.

Haiti 1970s: Authoritarian Growth, Fragile Gains

Many low-income countries periodically experience rapid growth spurts that appear to signal economic takeoff but later reverse—sometimes with lasting social damage. Haiti in the 1970s offers a clear case of real, visible, and internationally…

Jamaica’s First Decade, 1962-1972: Growth Without Inclusion Jamaica's first decade of independence illustrates how rapid, foreign-capital-driven growth can, unfortunately, go hand in hand with persistent unemployment and structural imbalance. Between 1962 and 1972, Jamaica's output expanded substantially, infrastructure improved, and new industries took hold—yet social disparities widened rather than narrowed. Growth did not translate into broad employment or income gains, leading to structural tensions beneath a stable macroeconomic surface.

Jamaica’s First Decade, 1962-1972: Growth Without Inclusion

Jamaica's first decade of independence illustrates how rapid, foreign-capital-driven growth can, unfortunately, go hand in hand with persistent unemployment and structural imbalance. Between 1962 and 1972, Jamaica's output expanded…

Oma “Mother of All Fish”: Arapaima and Rupununi Fisheries Arapaima—also known as Oma or Warapai—is the largest fish in the Amazon and one of the endangered giants that characterize the Rupununi. Despite more than 25 years of management work, the species remains threatened. Arapaima captures a central conservation-development challenge: supporting strong local livelihoods while safeguarding the long-term sustainability of species and habitats. In the Rupununi, Arapaima supports livelihoods in multiple ways, including sport fishing, and it has also historically been sold commercially to Brazil.

Oma “Mother of All Fish”: Arapaima and Rupununi Fisheries

Arapaima—also known as Oma or Warapai—is the largest fish in the Amazon and one of the endangered giants that characterize the Rupununi. Despite more than 25 years of management work, the species remains threatened. Arapaima captures a…

Paying for Freedom Haiti’s 1825 Indemnity and the Fiscal Roots of State Fragility In 1825, France imposed an indemnity on Haiti—about US$20 billion in today’s money—under direct military threat, nearly three times the republic’s estimated annual output. The payment was designed to compensate former colonists for the property the revolution had abolished. The fiscal consequences were immediate and generational: states emerging from conflict must split scarce revenues between survival and development, but Haiti began with its public finances effectively mortgaged to a foreign creditor.

Paying for Freedom

Haiti’s 1825 Indemnity and the Fiscal Roots of State Fragility In 1825, France imposed an indemnity on Haiti—about US$20 billion in today’s money—under direct military threat, nearly three times the republic’s estimated annual output. The payment was designed to compensate…

It Takes More Than Technology What Successful States Do to Turn Innovation into Lasting Productivity Gains — Lessons for Latin America and the Caribbean

It Takes More Than Technology
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When mahogany ran out: how Belize rebuilt its economy — and what the Caribbean hasn’t finished learning. By 1960, sugar and citrus had overtaken timber as Belize's primary export. What followed was not spontaneous market adjustment but a decade of deliberate governance — new institutions, realigned capital, and trade arrangements that made sugar scalable at speed. The same logic, and the same risks, runs through Caribbean development to this day

When mahogany ran out: how Belize rebuilt its economy — and what the Caribbean hasn’t finished learning.

By 1960, sugar and citrus had overtaken timber as Belize's primary export. What followed was not spontaneous market adjustment but a decade of deliberate governance — new institutions,…

Peru’s Commodity Boom: Gains and Tensions In 2013, Peru looked like a macroeconomic success story: incomes nearly doubled, poverty was cut in half, and the state ran surpluses with enviable reserves. Yet Cajamarca—home to Yanacocha, one of the world’s largest gold mines—had the country’s highest poverty rate. That contradiction isn’t a footnote; it’s the core of Peru’s commodity-boom lesson.

Peru’s Commodity Boom: Gains and Tensions

In 2013, Peru looked like a macroeconomic success story: incomes nearly doubled, poverty was cut in half, and the state ran surpluses with enviable reserves. Yet Cajamarca—home to Yanacocha, one of the world’s largest gold mines—had the country’s highest…

From sugar to services: how Barbados rebuilt its economy Most CARICOM economies entered the post-independence era organised around a single export commodity — sugar, bananas, or oil — carrying the structural vulnerabilities that came with it. Between 1960 and 1980, Barbados faced the structural limitations of a sugar-dominated economy characterized by seasonal employment and vulnerability to external price fluctuations. During this period, sugar’s contribution to output and employment declined sharply as new activities expanded.

From sugar to services: how Barbados rebuilt its economy

Most CARICOM economies entered the post-independence era organised around a single export commodity — sugar, bananas, or oil — carrying the structural vulnerabilities that came with it. Between 1960 and 1980, Barbados faced the structural…

Closing the Diffusion Gap A Deployment Agenda for LAC Policymakers

Closing the Diffusion Gap open.substack.com/pub/gwatkins...

From sugar to services: how Barbados rebuilt its economy Most CARICOM economies entered the post-independence era organised around a single export commodity — sugar, bananas, or oil — carrying the structural vulnerabilities that came with it. Between 1960 and 1980, Barbados fa...

Barbados's experience demonstrates how a deliberate shift toward services and exports can underpin sustained growth without severe social disruption.

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/from-...

Ecuador Oil Boom (1972–1981): Growth and the State In August 1972, oil began flowing through a newly completed pipeline across the Andes, and Ecuador’s economy changed almost overnight. Between 1972 and 1981, the country experienced one of the fastest...

Ecuador Oil Boom (1972–1981): Growth and the State watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/ecuad...

How Costa Rica Made EVs Scale In 2015, Costa Rica registered fewer than 500 electric vehicles. By 2024, EVs accounted for more than 1 in 10 new registrations—powered almost entirely by renewable electricity. The country did this w...

How Costa Rica Made EVs Scale watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/how-c...

Guyana’s Oil Boom 2015 to Today: Fast Growth, Hard Choices Guyana has moved quickly to put in place the core governance for its windfall — the Natural Resource Fund, a local content act, and a rapidly expanding public investment program — as production and re...

Guyana’s Oil Boom 2015 to Today: Fast Growth, Hard Choices watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/guyan...

Dominican Republic: economic booms can hide financial fragility In 2003, the Dominican Republic’s growth model collapsed, turning a boom into a national emergency. Three banks failed, depositors lost roughly US$2.2 billion, unemployment approached 20 percent, and ...

Across Latin America and the Caribbean, nearshoring is reshaping where factories locate, and tourism is rebounding post‑pandemic—often faster than the institutions meant to regulate finance, utilities, and land use.

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/domin...

Brazil’s Cerrado Growth Model: State Capacity and Land Governance In 1960, Brazil imported food. In 2023, it supplied global markets at a scale that rivals the European Union’s agricultural exports. The Cerrado—roughly 200 million hectares—was long treated as margin...

Brazil built public agricultural research and development, subsidized credit, and enabled infrastructure that scaled frontier production. LAC faces a simultaneous mandate: raise output, defend the climate, and avoid land conversion. watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/brazi...

Closing the Deployment Gap in LAC: Turning Tech Investment into Productivity, Jobs, and Resilience Why technology booms stall—and the institutional reforms governments can use to scale economy-wide

For LAC, the next technological wave is not approaching — it is already here. The question is whether the region's institutions will be ready to catch what has already landed.

gwatkins.substack.com/p/closing-th...

The Discipline Behind the Miracle: Learning from Taiwan and Korea Many industrial policies share a common flaw: they are designed for success and unprepared for failure. Subsidies get extended, protection becomes permanent, and development banks accumulate risk with...

The Discipline Behind the Miracle: Learning from Taiwan and Korea watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/the-d...

Why Reforms Fail: Five Functions for Change in LAC In 2013, Mexico’s energy reform looked like a textbook transformation package: a clear legal opening, new regulators, competitive processes to attract investment, and the promise of cheaper, cleaner, ...

When these functions align, they create reinforcing loops that build capability and credibility. When they do not, predictable failure modes follow—misallocation, reversals, and erosion of trust.

watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/why-r...

From Technological Installation to Deployment How LAC Can Turn Turbulence into Durable Growth

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Venezuela’s Oil Boom 1920–1970: Institutional Lessons Venezuela’s oil boom between 1920 and 1970 represents one of the most compressed episodes of economic transformation in Latin American history, driven overwhelmingly by petroleum extraction. Real GDP ...

Venezuela’s Oil Boom 1920–1970: Institutional Lessons watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/venez...

How Chile Built Copper and Salmon Exports 1980–2010 Between 1980 and 2010, Chile moved from a volatile, copper-dependent economy toward a more complex export platform—still anchored in copper but complemented by a globally significant salmon aquacultur...

How Chile Built Copper and Salmon Exports 1980–2010 watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/how-c...

Trinidad & Tobago’s LNG Boom: 1998–2008 Trinidad & Tobago transformed its development trajectory between 1998 and 2008 by converting an underused natural gas reserve into a globally competitive liquefied natural gas export platform. Over th...

Trinidad watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/trini...

Mexico’s Mobile Leapfrog (1990–2010): Lessons for Transitions Between 1990 and 2010, Mexico experienced one of the most rapid transformations in communications in the developing world. At the start of the 1990s, the country had fewer than five fixed telephone li...

Mexico’s Mobile Leapfrog (1990–2010): Lessons for Transitions watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/mexic...