Breaking: New study using observational constraints projects that the Atlantic Ocean circulation #AMOC will weaken ~50% by 2100, even for medium emissions and without Greenland melting. 🌊
More realistic models means stronger weakening - not entirely unexpected.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
If you use the R package DLNM to estimate excess risk attributable to environmental conditions (e.g., heat/cold), I've rewritten the package in python: github.com/aedessler/py...
For the first time ever, heat pumps outsold gas boilers in Germany in 2025.
48% of all new heating systems installed last year were heat pumps. Gas fell to just 39%. A decade ago, heat pumps had a 7% market share. The transformation has been remarkable.
So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP.
The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
📰 #Press release: press.vub.ac.be/wind-and-sol...
@vubrussel.bsky.social @hydr-vub.bsky.social @paulmunoz.bsky.social @luispineda.bsky.social
👉 #Article available open-access at www.nature.com/articles/s44...
⚡ Wind and solar power are often criticised for their supposed lack of #reliability and low “capacity credit” in discussions surrounding #energytransitions and #clean #electricity. Our results counter that narrative.
💧 The seasonal nature of #wind and #solar energy would help extend the availability of #hydroelectric #power stations—thereby reducing, compared to the #crisis year of 2024:
- 📉 the #energy #deficit by 90%
- 📉 the peak #capacity #deficit by 50%.
Our research team (@hydr-vub.bsky.social and Universidad Yachay Tech) has made a surprising discovery: the deployment of wind 💨 and solar ☀️ power plants, at the scale of hundreds of MW, would substantially improve the #resilience of Ecuador’s electricity system in the face of #droughts
The closure of the Strait of #Hormuz is not the only #EnergyCrisis we have seen recently. In the drought-stricken year 2024, #Ecuador 🇪🇨 faced an unprecedented crisis of a different kind.
The country’s #hydropower reservoirs ran almost dry, & Ecuadorians had to endure #grid #blackouts for >12h a day
Ecuador could have prevented the massive impacts from hydropower drought it suffered in 2024 if it had gone all-in on wind-solar. Doing these investments now will prevent such damages from happening again in the near-future
Check out our latest paper led by Sebastian Sterl in @natwater.nature.com 🧵
@ulbruxelles.bsky.social @vubrussel.bsky.social @hydr-vub.bsky.social @rosapietroiusti.bsky.social @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
In our new paper in ERL @ioppublishing.bsky.social led by Diana Erazo, we combine An. stephensi records with climate data and epidemiological modelling in an impact attribution framework. We find that factors other than climate change contributed to the expansion range of An. stephensi in Africa
Climate change is leading to many impacts, but not every impact is caused by climate change. For example, we find limited evidence for the impact of climate change on the recent range expansion of the malaria vector Anopheles stephensi in the Horn of Africa
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
Not everything is the climate.
Malaria is surging — yes, as the climate changes, but also with conflict, displacement, and budget cuts.
And crucially: Anopheles stephensi, an invasive mosquito species is reclaiming urban areas where malaria was once eliminated.
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Saudi Arabia, Russia and others yet again blocking progress on climate science ...
> IPCC: ‘Frustrating and disappointing’ meeting leaves AR7 timeline in deadlock
#climatecrisis
@carbonbrief.org
www.carbonbrief.org/ipcc-frustra...
The last 11 years were the hottest on record, which is unsurprising and worrying at the same time, because we don’t fully understand why.
Thread... 1/n
I don't think people fully appreciate how apocalyptic things are for US science. I haven't had any new funding since 2024, but I'm still ok since typical grants are for three years. This means next year I will be completely out of funding and will have to fire everyone in the lab. It's not great.
Time and time again surveys of heat pump owners show that the vast majority of people are happy with their heat pump.
Here's data from Canada, a place known for its very warm winters. cleanenergycanada.org/report/heat-...
🔥 PhD position alert ➡️ We are looking for a PhD candidate interested in studying spatially compounding fire risk and its drivers under climate change.
Details & applications👇
recruitingapp-5128.de.umantis.com/Vacancies/33...
In a new Nature study, we show that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2°C warming for several sectors.
The findings reinforce the urgency of limiting warming well below 2°C.
Together with @erichfischer.bsky.social @janasillmann.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social
PhD opportunity at KU Leuven
Antropogenic influences on East African high impact rainfall
Apply for this job no later than April 22, 2026
www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo...
Co-supervision by Kwinten Van Weverberg Universiteit Gent and Remko Uijlenhoet TU Delft
Photo by Tai Pfeifer on Unsplash
two images describing the March heat wave, left a map showing temperature anomalies, right, the seasonal cycle and the anomalies this year
March in Western North America is deadly hot, completely above temperatures that would have been possible without climate change from burning oil, coal and gas. New record shatteringly rapid @wwattribution.bsky.social study www.worldweatherattribution.org/record-shatt...
Two technologies that competed for the future of heating and transport. The race is over.
In 2025, 19m heat pumps were sold globally. Hydrogen-ready boilers: 237 units. The picture in transport is identical.
21m electric vehicles were sold last year. Hydrogen fuel cell cars: roughly 10,000 units.
When I started working on UK energy in 2007, fossil fuels provided ~78% of electricity. Coal alone: 34%. Wind & solar: less than 2%.
Today: wind & solar 33%, fossil fuels 28%, coal 0%.
The chart below tells the story better than words can.
Electric vehicles avoided oil demand equivalent to 70% of #Iran’s exports in 2025 🚗⚡
Replacing imported oil used in transport with electric vehicles could reduce total global fossil fuel imports by a THIRD, saving around $600 billion per year.
🔗ember-energy.org/lat...
Heat pumps are the most efficient heating technology ever invented.
They harvest and compress pre existing heat in the air, ground or water and transport it where it is needed.
That energy is all around us. It does not have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz or any other geopolitical chokepoint.
Map showing surface weather station observations on 9th Feb 2026
Map showing surface weather station observations on 9th Mar 2026
Certainly not the most important issue with the current situation in the Middle East, but there is a new Iran shaped hole in our surface weather observation network.
In this example, measurements of surface pressure fed into operational weather forecasts: 9th Feb (left) and 9th Mar (right)
>1 Million observations from 37 stations across DRC were recently rescued by @derrickmuheki.bsky.social using MeteoSaver. The data has been uploaded to the @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social CDS and will be released from there in the next months. Derrick will present the data and its analysis at @egu.eu
4-year fully funded PhD position in 'Climate-related health impacts on children' @hydr-vub.bsky.social. Apply now:
jobs.vub.be/job/Elsene-P...