Good thread,but Jamie Farr is not Jewish. He is a Lebanese-American Christian.

Thanks

What is "post-election"?

Magyar has 2/3 of the seats and can amend the Constitution/remove officials Orban tried to entrench. Many of those posts don't exist the same way in the US. Democrats won't have 2/3 either. Some people can be prosecuted, but Trump pardons and Supreme Court based immunity would be constraints.

Hi Josh. I wasn't saying you're misusing their term. Orban certainly tried to entrench himself. I just think the whole discourse is a bit overdone. GOP tried via gerrymandering etc, but will lose the midterms too.

There probably are not actually this many Hungarian Bluesky users with strong feelings about Vance who were on the fence about Orban. Not everything is about us.

Some people put this in the footnotes.

Unlike Trump, Orban had the votes to amend the Constitution, and he did a great deal to entrench himself and his party that Trump can't. He still lost and if Magyar really has the 2/3 majority he will be able to not only take office, but to undo all the FIDESZization of the state as well.

Not just "incumbents can lose", but the opposition can win a supermajority! That being the case, I'd suggest the "competitive authoritarian" category/concept is somewhat overbroad/overhyped. Also, Bluesky should recognize that Magyar beating Orban is analogous to Liz Cheney defeating Trump. 1)

Reckless yes, but both his previous political behavior and his despicable personal conduct reveal an aggressive, risk-acceptant personality who has been rewarded for his risk-taking/aggression or at least gotten away with it in both spheres. Not shocking that a guy like eventually this goes too far.

Would Dems then mount a "vote for Swalwell to stop the GOP" campaign based on Dem Lt. Gov actually serving?(Lt. Gov is elected separately, a bad rule useful in that case.) It'd require Swalwell's cooperation.Or he could be impeached/convicted after becoming governor! A Dem loss would be more likely.

In a narrowly-averted scenario, Swalwell might have been the only Democratic finalist in the general election before this scandal hit. If so, THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN NO WAY TO REPLACE HIM, b/c under the anti-party Top Two system, candidates aren't party nominees! No late write-ins allowed either! 1)

You don't have to be famous to be targeted in this case. Mine was supposedly from a journalist I wouldn't even consider "famous" either and it was fake too.

It was awful, but no. Rabin was trailing in polls when he was killed. Peres, his successor, had a huge sympathy lead that faded b/c he waited too long to call the election. Still Barak beat Netanyahu in 1999. The failure of the Camp David Summit in 2000 & the 2nd Intifada were far more important.

They weren't even right then! Doikayt made you far more likely to be killed. Zionism succeeded far more than they foresaw. Socialism in E Europe went badly overall and in specific ways for Jews. So much wrongness! TBF, who knew in 1897? Maybe I'd have joined! But signing on to a falsified doctrine?

Which also wouldn't happen! So, really it is hanging by a thread. Someone needs to tell him the markets would view quitting NATO negatively.

Unworkable law. Even if it is upheld, Trump could make NATO a dead letter simply by repudiating the alliance. If Putin invades Latvia, would they seek a court order requiring Trump to send in the 82nd Airborne? Even if his term is quiet and the next President reaffirmed NATO, damage would be done.

Thanks! That is not what Dems would like to see and is somewhat surprising to me.

Is there any precinct-level analysis/comparison to previous elections that allows for any inference as to which party is turning out more? I assume an election like this (odd time of year, kind of faceless) will favor Dems for midterm/highly-educated voter base reason, but good to know.

Unfortunately from this standpoint, not going.

Bluesky peer-review process is also very uneven! Good luck with the book!

It's also a problem with the rules. They WERE designed as an anti-party reform in hopes that this would produce moderation. In your scenario it might not! Partisan primaries, like conventions that preceded them were formal processes for party decisionmaking. The reform made it harder, deliberately.

He won a MacArthur prize in 1990 when it was already clear that he was very wrong!

We discuss Bush in the article. He did use it, but much less than Trump and he did apologize that one time.

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

There is more and more of this lately and conservative media was the early adopter on the right, before Trump: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

The Rise of the “Democrat Party”: Republican Elites, Partisan Slurs, and Linguistic Polarization - David Karol, Zachary Scott, 2025 In a time of heightened affective and negative partisanship, we examine the intra-elite party dynamics underlying insulting partisan rhetoric. Our focus is on R...

Democratic, not "Democrat". journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Sadly, those are pretty good sales numbers for a new polisci book, but I think this one has to be classified as a study in abnormal psychology.

Yes, they threw away several seats, but that was a simpler time when things mattered.

He DID eventually plead guilty though! Maybe he wasn't confident last summer that Trump would win and come through.

Current house effects for Trump approval polls: