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Posts by Brad DeLong

The dining-room-corner linear algebra experiment, or, why I am trying to build a BradBot instead of a FAQ list—SubTuringBradBot, office hours, gasbags, and “hexapodia”:

**SubTuringBradBot Is Finally Live—at Least for Now: Monday MAMLMs**

< braddelong.substack.com/p/subturingb... >

2026-04-20 Mon

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DRAFT: Origins of a “Human” Economy A hornfels quarry in KwaZulu‑Natal and a basalt workshop in the Jordan Valley show that spatial division of labor, long‑term planning, and cumulative culture are not modern inventions but...

...economy < braddelong.substack.com/p/draft-orig... >
2026-04-19 Sun 2/END

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A hornfels quarry in KwaZulu‑Natal and a basalt workshop in the Jordan Valley show that spatial division of labor, long‑term planning, and cumulative culture are not modern inventions but Pleistocene facts long predating our evolution as Homo sapiens sapiens:

**DRAFT: Origins of a “Human”... 1/

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...so often the case, the Republican politicians. 2/END

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Come on now. We didn't have the votes. What we did have was the ability to push to make George Shultz and Howard Baker Acting Co-Presidents provided we kept things quiet. And we took that deal. Was that wrong?

The Democratic politicians were not the bad actors here. The bad actors were, as is... 1/

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Concur...

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How Will Future Historians Describe Our Fake Bible Verses & the Rest of Marx Brothers-Level Governance?: Thing Worth Noting “Morning Joe” Does the SecDef Hegseth sacred Quentin Tarantino thing properly, and I reflect on what insights we can derive from it…

...< braddelong.substack.com/p/how-will-f... >
2026-04-18 2/END

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How Will Future Historians Describe Our Fake Bible Verses & the Rest of Marx Brothers-Level Governance?: Thing Worth Noting “Morning Joe” Does the SecDef Hegseth sacred Quentin Tarantino thing properly, and I reflect on what insights we can derive from it…

“Morning Joe” Does the SecDef Hegseth sacred Quentin Tarantino thing properly, and I reflect on what insights we can derive from it:

**How Will Future Historians Describe Our Fake Bible Verses & the Rest of Marx Brothers-Level Governance?: Thing Worth Noting**... 1/

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Note to Self: My Views This Afternoon on the Current State of MAMLM GPT LLM Pseudo-AGI Behind the paywall because this is of interest only to those genuinely interested in closely following my MAMLM-interpretation & assessment journey. Current viewpoint: Pantomimes of thought: LLMs...

...State of MAMLM GPT LLM Pseudo-AGI**< braddelong.substack.com/p/note-to-se... >

2026-04-16 Thu 4/END

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...astonishingly good at pantomiming human thought, and alarmingly bad at keeping their stories straight, unless their code does not run, in which case they stamp their Clever Hans feet again and again until it does run…

**Note to Self: My Views This Afternoon on the Current... 3/

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...number, and code from kernel smoothing to Beelzebub and examine the pseudo-AGI, where its successes are illuminating and its failures perhaps even more so. See “AI” as a gigantic, overconfident parrot doing cold reading at scale, both the magic and the madness snap somewhat into focus—... 2/

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Behind the paywall because this is of interest only to those genuinely interested in closely following my MAMLM-interpretation & assessment journey. Current viewpoint: Pantomimes of thought: LLMs working so weirdly well except where they do not, as we traverse the landscape of letter... 1/

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thx much. Hope you and your karass are well, or, rather, as well as one can be in a world in which while one may well be, personally, quite comfortable, we live in a world in which no man is an island.

Yours, J. Bradford DeLong
<https://braddelong.substack.com/about>

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How Is Donald Trump Managing to Lose a War with Iran?: Perhaps the Most Important Thing Going on Right Now Ex ante, I would have said that it would be very difficult for the United States to lose a war with Iran. Yet Trump—somehow—seems to have managed. A postwar state of affairs that is vastly worse...

...Perhaps the Most Important Thing Going on Right Now**

< braddelong.substack.com/p/how-is-don... >

2026-04-16 Thu 4/END

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How Is Donald Trump Managing to Lose a War with Iran?: Perhaps the Most Important Thing Going on Right Now Ex ante, I would have said that it would be very difficult for the United States to lose a war with Iran. Yet Trump—somehow—seems to have managed. A postwar state of affairs that is vastly worse...

...establishment figures that short months ago assured us Trump “won Davos” are busy spinning. Connecting the dots from the island of Melos to the Strait of Hormuz, foreign-policy macho irrealism usually delivers catastrophe:

**How Is Donald Trump Managing to Lose a War with Iran?... 3/

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How Is Donald Trump Managing to Lose a War with Iran?: Perhaps the Most Important Thing Going on Right Now Ex ante, I would have said that it would be very difficult for the United States to lose a war with Iran. Yet Trump—somehow—seems to have managed. A postwar state of affairs that is vastly worse...

...even that is unlikely. Dan Drezner rightly calls it a “strategic defeat of the United States.” And foreign‑policy establishment figures that short months ago assured us Trump “won Davos” are busy spinning. Connecting the dots from the island of Melos to the Strait of Hormuz, foreign-policy... 2/

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How Is Donald Trump Managing to Lose a War with Iran?: Perhaps the Most Important Thing Going on Right Now Ex ante, I would have said that it would be very difficult for the United States to lose a war with Iran. Yet Trump—somehow—seems to have managed. A postwar state of affairs that is vastly worse...

...even that is unlikely. Dan Drezner rightly calls it a “strategic defeat of the United States.” And foreign‑policy establishment figures that short months ago assured us Trump “won Davos” are busy spinning. Connecting the dots from the island of Melos to the Strait of Hormuz, foreign-policy... 2/

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Ex ante, I would have said that it would be very difficult for the United States to lose a war with Iran. Yet Trump—somehow—seems to have managed. A postwar state of affairs that is vastly worse than Obama’s JCPOA that he broke seems to be the best kind of Pyrrhic victory he can hope for and... 1/

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Ex ante, I would have said that it would be very difficult for the United States to lose a war with Iran. Yet Trump—somehow—seems to have managed. A postwar state of affairs that is vastly worse than Obama’s JCPOA that he broke seems to be the best kind of Pyrrhic victory he can hope form and... 1/

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Scott Bessent's LLM System Prompt Has a High Weight on the Word "Vermouth": Thing Worth Noting, for 2026-04-16 Thu Vermouth, covfefe, & ‘vermin’: What LLMs potentially have to teach Us About the American Right’s Id from Scott Bessent’s “Straits of Vermouth” to Trump’s “oranges of the investigation”. Our...

...**Scott Bessent's LLM System Prompt Has a High Weight on the Word "Vermouth": Thing Worth Noting, for 2026-04-16 Thu**

< braddelong.substack.com/p/scott-bess... >

2026-04-16 Thu 2/END

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Vermouth, covfefe, & ‘vermin’: What LLMs potentially have to teach Us About the American Right’s Id from Scott Bessent’s “Straits of Vermouth” to Trump’s “oranges of the investigation”. Our parapraxes are noisy but telling windows into the system prompts running our mental autocompletes... 1/

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The Trump Tanakh—That Is, the Law, the Prophets, & the Writings—Was Written by Quentin Tarantino "Pulp Fiction" Character Jules Winfield Quentin Tarantino’s “Pulp Fiction” becomes Holy Scripture in Trumpist civil religion: the astonishing war prayers of DefSec Peter Hegseth rewrite God in the image of a sadistic pulp-movie thug. The...

...< braddelong.substack.com/p/the-trump-... >

2026-04-16 Thu 3/END

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The Trump Tanakh—That Is, the Law, the Prophets, & the Writings—Was Written by Quentin Tarantino "Pulp Fiction" Character Jules Winfield Quentin Tarantino’s “Pulp Fiction” becomes Holy Scripture in Trumpist civil religion: the astonishing war prayers of DefSec Peter Hegseth rewrite God in the image of a sadistic pulp-movie thug. The...

...CSAR 2517 is about how American violence is itself the Divine judgment—and that is about as anti‑Christian as you can get:

**The Trump Tanakh—That Is, the Law, the Prophets, & the Writings—Was Written by Quentin Tarantino "Pulp Fiction" Character Jules Winfield**... 2/

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The Trump Tanakh—That Is, the Law, the Prophets, & the Writings—Was Written by Quentin Tarantino "Pulp Fiction" Character Jules Winfield Quentin Tarantino’s “Pulp Fiction” becomes Holy Scripture in Trumpist civil religion: the astonishing war prayers of DefSec Peter Hegseth rewrite God in the image of a sadistic pulp-movie thug. The...

Quentin Tarantino’s “Pulp Fiction” becomes Holy Scripture in Trumpist civil religion: the astonishing war prayers of DefSec Peter Hegseth rewrite God in the image of a sadistic pulp-movie thug. The real Ezekiel 25 is about how nobody’s aggressive violence escapes divine judgment. Hegseth’s... 1/

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The Robot Uprising Has Begun! A bulletin from the front: Brad vs. the Moen Flo Shutoff game-changing smart water device that monitors for leaks and immediately takes action to help prevent them…

...**The Robot Uprising Has Begun!**

< braddelong.substack.com/p/the-robot-... >

2026-04-15 (Wed) 2/END

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A bulletin from the front: Brad vs. the Moen Flo Shutoff game-changing smart water device that monitors for leaks and immediately takes action to help prevent them. Yes, we are now in that Brave New World where “AI” doesn’t understand your nascent tomatoes, but can still turn off your water:

... 1/

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Is the Day of the Data Center About to Be Over? Marco Arment's Setup as the Canary in the Coal Mine—or, Rather, as the 50 Mac Mini Server Farm Vastly More Efficient than the NVIDIA-Powered Cloud-Bound Hyperscalers...

...**Is the Day of the Data Center About to Be Over?**

< braddelong.substack.com/p/is-the-day... >

2026-04-11 Sa 2/END

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Marco Arment's Setup as the Canary in the Coal Mine—or, Rather, as the 50 Mac Mini Server Farm Vastly More Efficient than the NVIDIA-Powered Cloud-Bound Hyperscalers. Or, why John Giannandrea’s stewardship of Apple’s AI strategy may have meant that Apple has already won the AI-software race... 1/

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Alternatively, we could call them "inept morons who thought they could be social-democratic wolves in neoliberal sheep's clothing"

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