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Posts by Tom Brown

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𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗣𝘆𝗣𝗦𝗔 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝘃𝟭.𝟮 🎉
- New 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗻𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 class for multi-carrier conversion with explicit rates as a flexible alternative to multi-port Links
- 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘆𝘀 for Links and Processes via new delay and cyclic_delay attributes

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Ich freue mich auf den Austausch in Potsdam!

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KLIMASCHUTZ, ENERGIESICHERHEIT, KOSTENEFFIZIENZ – GEGENSÄTZE ODER VEREINBAR? - fragt und diskutiert TOM BROWN mit ANN-KATRIN SCHENK und dem Publikum am Mittwoch, 29. April, 19:00 live Am Neuen Markt 7 und via zoom: www.einsteinforum.de/.../klimasch...

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Russia’s next war crime: After a winter of blackouts, Ukraine braces for summer water outages Even as warmer weather reduces the disruptive impact of blackouts and lowers heating demand, Ukrainian officials and utility experts warn that Russia may be shifting its focus to a new pressure point:...

Even as warmer weather reduces the disruptive impact of blackouts and lowers heating demand, Ukrainian officials and utility experts warn that Russia may be shifting its focus to a new pressure point: the country’s water infrastructure.

4 days ago 161 57 3 4

Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA) now has an official social media channel - follow for feature deep-dives, releases and other updates!

1 week ago 18 5 1 0
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Hello, World! Hello, Bluesky!
PyPSA is now officially on Bluesky - it took a couple of years and a major version release, but we're finally here!

1 week ago 15 8 2 1
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The only lasting way out of the fossil dependency is shifting electricity generation to renewables and nuclear.

And electrifying the economy as rapidly as possible.

We will present our electrification strategy before the summer.

Electrifying Europe means making Europe more independent.

1 week ago 256 74 20 11
blog | nworbmot:tombrown Solar and batteries are cheap enough that most people can get most of their electricity from them, and save money. This equation gets better and better over time as their costs decline.

Chris already linked the blog post with all the details.

nworbmot.org/blog/solar-b...

I show results for 90%, 95% and 99% solar-battery.

Might have been an idea to read it before sharing your opinions and wasting our time.

1 week ago 1 0 1 0
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Also the model is optimising to provide 90% of demand from solar+battery, so it builds more than 4 hours, typically 5-7 hours. There's a graph of that lower down.

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The model includes fuel backup capacity to cover the full demand (for the worst case of no solar, batteries run empty). That's the "backup fixed cost" in the 2nd graphic, and first thing mentioned in the assumptions.

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In ihrem aktuellen FAZ-Gastbeitrag beklagt Katherina Reiche eine "Selbsttäuschunug" in der Energiepolitik. Tatsächlich fällt der Täuschungsvorwurf aber teilweise auf sie selbst zurück, denn der Text enthält diverse falsche oder irreführende Zahlen. Ein Thread. (1/17) www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...

1 week ago 2680 1312 77 110
blog | nworbmot:tombrown Solar and batteries are cheap enough that most people can get most of their electricity from them, and save money. This equation gets better and better over time as their costs decline.

The details are in the blog post:

nworbmot.org/blog/solar-b...

The fuel is modelled to be generic, priced here at 30 EUR/MWh like fossil gas. Hydrogen could also be used, but would be more expensive. The blog post has instructions how to adjust the cost.

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Thanks Blake! I would say solar flanked by wind for the winter, with a good dose of hydro (especially for Canada), and for the most tricky days some backup storeable fuel (biomethane, fossil gas that's compensated, maybe e-biomethanol). And keep existing nuclear running of course.

1 week ago 3 0 0 0
blog | nworbmot:tombrown Solar and batteries are cheap enough that most people can get most of their electricity from them, and save money. This equation gets better and better over time as their costs decline.

No, just production with a grid connection, scroll down for the details:

nworbmot.org/blog/solar-b...

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Another energy crisis - another lack of unbiased, relevant, timely ENERGY DATA for policy-making:

What is possible: The US Energy Information Administration, provides among many other series granular weekly! oil&petroleum data for: refinery production, imports, exports, prices, stocks, ...
1/4

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Thanks Hannah!

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Tom Brown (@nworbmot@mastodon.social) In this time of turbulence, let's not forget the good news on solar and batteries - now cheap enough that most people can get most of their electricity from them, and save money. Had a great time with @chrisnelder@mastodon.energy on his @TransitionShow@mastodon.energy podcast discussing what this new world looks like, based on a recent blog post: https://nworbmot.org/blog/solar-battery-world.html

Post is also on mastodon: mastodon.social/@nworbmot/11...

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He also let me sneak in some plugs for open energy modelling #freethemodels and recent ideas looking at methanol as backstop for high electrification scenarios:

nworbmot.org/blog/methano...

Enjoy!

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More precisely: solar and batteries can supply 90% of electricity for 80% of the world's population at less than 80 €/MWh (including a fuel backup) with 2030 assumptions. Add some wind, existing hydro, or wait a few more years for costs to decline, and the equation just gets better.

1 week ago 29 10 3 1

In this time of turbulence, let's not forget the good news on solar and batteries - now cheap enough that most people can get most of their electricity from them, and save money.

Had a great time with @chrisnelder.bsky.social on this podcast discussing this new world:

nworbmot.org/blog/solar-b...

1 week ago 48 10 3 2
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[Episode #273] – Solar and Batteries Can Power the World | The Energy Transition Show Can solar and batteries power the world cost-effectively? A new model says yes.

In Ep. 272, Tom Brown @nworbmot.bsky.social shares a new model which shows that by 2030, solar and batteries could supply 90% of electricity to 80% of the global population for less than €80/MWh. It would not only be cost-effective, but also likely cheaper than gas. xenetwork.org/ets/episodes...

1 week ago 23 12 1 3

The war in Iran has massively disrupted oil & natural gas supplies and inflated the cost of electricity produced from gas. Fortunately, the world doesn't need gas for power anymore. It can be powered entirely by solar! Listen in and find out how.

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I'm glad to hear it! But read the books of our modern gurus, Tegmark / Bostrom / Amodei / Yudkowsky / etc. you don't find a mention.

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

That's right, but as I understand it he was more focused on complexity than intelligence (happy to be corrected).

2 weeks ago 0 0 1 0
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Targeting power plants causes untold and indiscriminate harm to civilians. Ask our Ukrainian friends. Trump hasn't even hid that the target is civilians, whom he wants to return to the Stone Age. This article makes the case for officially making the destruction of grids a war crime.

2 weeks ago 6 1 1 0

Sure, lots of work after, and lots more to do. It's just that Lem was ahead of his time and not credited much by the dominant AI thinkers.

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In 1964 Stanislav Lem anticipated how machine intelligence would be evolved, rather than designed, and that it might be intensely alien to us.

His "Summa Technologiae" deserves to be more widely read in the English-speaking world.

Here are some highlights:

nworbmot.org/blog/lem-mac...

2 weeks ago 5 0 1 0
Hacker News Rankings

Thanks Auke! As a result of your post, it was catapulted to the top of Y Combinator's Hacker News 📈

hnrankings.info/47627061/

2 weeks ago 6 0 1 0
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Thanks Christoph! Yeah, that might work, but would be harder to read the costs then. @martavictoria.bsky.social had a version with the ratio of winter over summer versus population in her paper doi.org/10.1016/j.jo... which I show elsewhere in the post:

2 weeks ago 4 2 0 0
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Great addition to a recent blogpost from @nworbmot.bsky.social

nworbmot.org/blog/solar-b...

Most of humans can go 90% solar in 2030. It's mostly northern Europe that's the edge case that also needs loads of wind. And the last 10% fuel... we'll take care of that before too long.

2 weeks ago 106 42 5 4