This feels like a ‘4D Chess’ wishful thinking argument but unless reform start to take traditional Tory seats there really won’t be any long term impact.

To say that the NE Wales changes proposed by the Metro will be transformational is to undersell it.

Enhanced connectivity will bring the people, jobs, housing, and resources of NW England and NE Wales even closer together and perhaps Cardiff even further away?

Even though I’m not sure I agree entirely about the level of ‘joy debt’, this thread is outstanding and well worth a read for anyone.

Ouch. No punches pulled there.

I suppose at least the bus that Labour Senedd candidates appear to have been thrown under will be a franchised one…

Fel bob tro, nid bwriad y neges yw’r peth (er bod problemau sylweddol gyda hynny hefyd…) ond y ffaith nad oedd Cymru hyd yn oed wedi croesi meddyliau'r rhai sy'n gyfrifol ar lefel y DU.

I’ve yet to hear a coherent argument that flying from, say, Edinburgh to London City, is morally justifiable.

Agree, and that was my point really - no party is likely to get a huge majority in the system so the bigger pool argument for Senedd reform was an odd one. Strong arguments for more scrutiny seats of course.

That assumes a fully integrated coalition though, where both parties make up the pool of ministerial candidates. In practice a confidence and supply or junior/senior partnership is more likely isn’t it?

One of the points that strikes me in these stats is how the argument that an increased numbers would give a bigger pool to pick ministers doesn’t really fly when you have splits like this.

I appreciate the point, I do, and am clear on our national context. But I find it hard to settle with a Welsh MP promoting a contrary policy view to a Welsh MS - for the same constituency. If it really is Westminster loyalty vs C.Bay loyalty?

You can see, I hope, how it seems disjointed to voters

If my Lab MSs and Lab MP vote differently on something fundamental, that does paint a confusing picture. This is not the same as governments disagreeing, of course.

Yes, but the MPs and MSs represent the same part. Is the justification for them having different priorities that they disagree individually, politically, in that their focus is somehow ‘different’?

I just can’t see how an argument that two representatives, elected by the same people, in the same party, taking opposing positions on important policies is a positive.

Killer image choice here by @willhaycardiff.bsky.social

Is it Farage welcoming Wales to the reform fold? Or is it Starmer waving goodbye to a Wales now sailed by Plaid?

Ambiguous enough to feed the reader’s biases, the same recipe used in politics at the moment.

(I just hope it’s real not AI…)

Turnout will be interesting here.

Fair to assume the 7.7% to Plaid and 2.7% to Green are part of the Labour drain? Interesting that the Independent candidate didn’t pick up any.

Definitely a ‘naughty kids on the back row vibe to this…

* obviously it means late (temp) residency in Wales and giving up the MP seat if he does, but possibly worth it?

Another brilliant pod. Bear with, but were I Farage I would put myself on the bottom of a list in a consistency (still not declaring a leader).

This would allow more interventions, bolstering campaign. Plus if Ref did get largest party he can get those above in list to resign so he can be FM. *

I think the LDs outcome will depend entirely on how the media treat them. If the choice is portrayed as Lab vs Plaid or Reform then they’re sunk. If it’s seen as multi party (which will depend a lot on whether Con are part of the narrative) they may well get some Unionist-Left but not Lab people.

Polls seem to be shuffling about this ‘3 way split’ but I’ll be surprised not to see at least a couple of Greens if only as a “left wing protest” vote. A sort of 28-2-28 split would be a real kingmaker situation if they can ‘anoint’ the biggest group (who govern with a conf & supply with the other)

Agree it’s been better in many ways, but the remote thing should have been a way of spreading jobs more across Wales. Instead most are still in the CCR. (Some N Wales bias here, on my end).

In almost all cases RTO is only really a way of pushing headcount reductions. WG’s people strategy has never really worked for the whole of Wales.

Remote work was clearly the biggest Levelling Up opportunity but there are lots who benefit directly from agglomeration. We have remote worked baked in to Welsh strategies, and a town centres crisis, but even then have fallen back on trying to get more people commuting to cities.

The replacement of the A494 Dee Bridge in Deeside will leave the current bridge unused. With some ambition we could have a linear park just like the Castlefield one but we will probably just demolish it.

If @newwales.bsky.social fancies a go I’d be happy to help where I can :)

Anecdata, I know, but here in Fflint-Wrecsam it’s basically rumour and gossip. I assume no one wants to go in to ‘election mode’ too early (except PC).

Interesting that no one is doing a US-style primary tracker - must be easy enough.

I still prefer open lists personally but it’s definitely not all downsides. If the media gets engaged in list selection (big if) then it could dramatically increase democratic engagement and hopefully turnout.

Potentially also prevent unpalatable candidates from being hidden by the list system too

A smart party will have voters who vote because they love Cand 1, voters who vote and campaign hard because they preferred Cand 2, and voters who are pushing the boat out because they really wanted Cand 3!

Of course it is different than the US system in that primaries will give a ranked list here - so an opportunity is to use primaries to raise awareness of candidates but not be divisive so they all look like a ‘Team’ that appeals to many and maximises turnout.

It’s a strong point - it’ll be interesting to see whether those parties with open primaries gain from increased awareness of candidates or not. And whether any perception of ‘parachuting in’ will hurt those who don’t run primaries.