Wrote today about Vance '28 - and why VPs do so well in presidential nomination politics despite looking so bad. At GP/BP. Read, share, subscribe. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/vance-2028
In competitive authoritarianism, leaders abuse state power to tilt the electoral playing field in their favor, manipulate the media environment and minimize opposition voices, maybe even steal close elections by lying about fraud. But they usually can't overcome a large majority voting against them.
My colleague @foxmike90.bsky.social has written a response to Trump's firing of Pam Bondi. Her 14-month tenure saw the departure of large numbers of qualified federal lawyers as she pursued the mission of turning DOJ "into a direct instrument of the White House" and settling political scores. /1
In two thirds of all US counties deaths are now outnumbering births. Source: buff.ly/cWokiWP
In all seriousness... what did that achieve? what was the point of putting the president on TV, if he had nothing new to say? "Suck it up, it hasn't taken as long as Vietnam" is not as heartening as the White House seems to think.
Series of bar charts comparing CNN polling from January and March 2026. They show that President Trump's economic ratings have dropped from January, while his overall rating has remained more stable.
Our latest poll out today:
www.cnn.com/2026/04/01/p...
Full toplines/crosstabs:
www.documentcloud.org/documents/27...
Trump has the highest disapproval of all time on inflation, higher than Biden, higher than Carter.
Inflation is currently 2.4%.
Look, I don't feel bad for Trump. But we are experiencing a complete breakdown of the political information system.
Imagine how horrible it must have felt to get intellectually humiliated by the Supreme Court while your boss, the President of the United States, is right behind you
No earthly pleasure more transcendent.
And Nate Silver's version has Trump under 40% approval for the first time; Silver's consistently been a bit higher, but it also shows an even bigger March slump.
A week ago things looked okay for high floor, but no more.
Political science research on thermostatic politics suggests that the best strategy for the midterms is being not-Trump.
This is *especially* true given Trump's abysmal approval ratings and the state of the economy.
Presidential Campaign, 1856. /John C. Fremont And William L. Dayton
It's hard to imagine looking sadder on your campaign poster than John Fremont looked on his 1856 campaign poster.
The best and brightest young people from around the world are getting the message: Reconsider investing your talents in the United States.
Cumulative issuance of F-1 student visas by calendar month, down circa 32% as of September (latest available)
Source: travel.state.gov/content/trav...
Bar chart showing partisan differences in Americans' views of the U.S. decision to use military force in Iran and how the military campaign is going so far. The chart is based on a March 2026 Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults.
How is the US military campaign in Iran going?
Most Democrats (69%) say it's going not too or not at all well. Republicans are more divided: 21% say it's going not too or not at all well, 32% say somewhat well and 46% say very or extremely well.
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
there's a new report out from YouGov using CES data to plot trends in partisanship over the past two decades. i've got a piece up today in @goodauth.bsky.social summarizing some key findings. check out both!
GA piece: goodauthority.org/news/long-st...
YouGov report: yougov.com/en-us/articl...
if you're not inherently excited for this event, please note that I recently subjected @baseballot.bsky.social and @pbump.com to an impromptu round of "name that pollster based on the crosstab formatting" and they got them all right
Quinnipiac Poll: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - the situation with Iran?
Approve 34%
Disapprove 59%
poll.qu.edu/poll-release...
👀 Reuters/Ipsos poll: Trump’s approval rating on the economy has sunk to 29%.
Lower than Biden’s lowest rating.
Far lower than Trump’s first-term lowest.
A fair amount of confusion about the talking filibuster comes from nomenclature; it messes people up b/c (1) minorities filibuster; but (2) the talking filibuster is described as a *majority* tactic ("the GOP should use the talking filibuster.")
Let's straighten this out. 1/
Has public opinion on the US striking Iran shifted since the war started? Two polls tell us slightly different stories.
A depressing but interesting conversation with @gregsargent.bsky.social @newrepublic.com on the miscalculation (noncalculcation?) the Trump administration made over the Strait of Hormuz. There’s gonna be a Trump premium on oil for a while.
All wars create unexpected second and third-order effects. One of the appalling things about the Trump administration is that they don’t seem to have thought through the expected effects either. open.substack.com/pub/danieldr...
There has been no large rally-round-the-flag effect since the Iran war began. Donald Trump has fared better with Republicans, however. And the divide within the party is striking
Predicting Congressional Election Results
Presidential approval & ideological direction of public opinion, not economics or party conflict, predict election results. That looks good for Dems
New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Carlos Algara
www.niskanencenter.org/what-predict...
Constitution schmonstitution
We've got previews of *forty* different major elections taking place tomorrow. This is a post you definitely won't want to miss out on.
Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/
Bar chart: Most Americans disapprove of US military action against Iran A new CNN poll, conducted by SSRS shortly after the US launched a military operation in Iran, finds that roughly 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of the attack. Initial reactions closely track the results of a CNN poll conducted last summer after the US launched airstrikes in Iran.
New from us: Nearly 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of the US decision to take military action in Iran, as most say a long-term military conflict between the two nations is likely, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
www.cnn.com/2026/03/02/p...