Can Labour improve its poll ratings by going in a more progressive direction? - Yes. My research showing this was published by the Fabians last week. Click the link to go to the report. fabians.org.uk/publication/...
My analysis of Labour's problems has been published by the @thefabians.bsky.social . Lost support has mostly gone to left-liberal parties. To regain support, I argue Labour needs to go in a more progressive direction & create a progressive coalition to beat Reform. fabians.org.uk/publication/...
How do we rebuild Labour’s electoral coalition? 🗳️🌹
The 2024 election saw Labour win a landslide, built on targeting key voters in marginal seats.
In this pamphlet, @jamespren.bsky.social examines why Labour has struggled to hold its coalition and how a progressive one could be built.
My Article on how NHS waiting times are improving within Hastings & St Leonards was published in the Hastings Independent. It can be viewed in the following link: www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/east-su...
📊 Ref lead of 7pts
Westminster voting intention
REF: 28% (-2)
CON: 21% (+2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
GRN: 13% (+2)
LDEM: 12% (-1)
via @Moreincommon_, 13 - 16 Mar
Chgs. w/ 09 Mar
britainelects.com
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 29% (-2)
LAB: 21% (+2)
CON: 18% (-2)
GRN: 12% (=)
LDM: 10% (-2)
Via @survation.bsky.social, 5 Mar.
Changes w/ 28-28 Jan.
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 27% (-5)
LAB: 20% (=)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 14% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
Via BMG Research, 4-5 Mar.
Changes w/ 28-29 Jan.
At this rate they Greens may have substantially more seats than labour so may not be able to do this. But, I do agree that the Greens in a coalition would be moderated.
Unpopular opinion, but people should be equally concerned about keeping Reform and Greens out when voting. One would damage the social fabric, the other the economic.
📊 Ref lead of 12pts
Westminster voting intention
REF: 30% (-1)
CON: 18% (+2)
LAB: 18% (-5)
GRN: 13% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+2)
via @OpiniumResearch, 25 - 27 Feb
Chgs. w/ 06 Feb
britainelects.com
Thanks for sharing, good to get all polls out for a better sense of the average
Alot of research from the polling and British election study, I am publishing something on this soon.
No, labour voters and the majority of their recent losses disagree with these policies and don't like the rhetoric either.
I have recently published an article on the Sussex NHS Trust, seeing strong improvements. It made the front page of the Hastings Independent. Click the link to read the article online. It reflects wider trend of improvments within the NHS in England.
www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/east-su...
Would any party in government succeed? Everyone is promising change, but when you face the reality of governing a country with many problems, do voters stick with you?
The left version of Farage, just as divisive.
To be fair, what I have seen from the by-election is pretty shocking. It was a glimpse into how angry and divided a society the UK has become. The Urdu leaflet was particularly horrid and the sort of thing you would expect to see from the hard left, like Galloway, not a radical left Green Party.
The recent by election reveals the increasing anger and division driving British politics.
Some of these polls informing tactical voting only have a sample of 400 people and don't give the margin of error in the headlines. These polls could end up giving people the wrong impression. Such madness.
All these bar charts do is tell Tories in this constituency how to beat Labour and Green. They are actually counterproductive to both the Greens and Labour's cause, which is odd given that every leaflet has a bar chart on it these days.
The latest polls tell us that anyone can win it due to the margin of error. It also tells us that tactically voting in this election is almost impossible, as no one knows which party is most able to beat reform. The fun of a highly fragmented electorate in a FPTP system.
How can people be expected to vote tactically in such a contest? This poll can't tell us who is in front due to 3 leading parties being within the margin of error. The voting system we have is increasingly challenged by how voters are dividing into small groups across multiple parties.
🚨 NEW: The latest Gorton and Denton by-election poll
🟢 GRN - 28%
🔴 LAB - 28%
➡️ REF - 27%
🔵 CON - 6%
🔶 LD - 4%
⚪ Other - 6%
Via Opinium, 401 sample, 16–24 Feb
An article I wrote on the housing crisis within Hastings that was recently published in the Hastings Independent www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/fixing-...
If you look at labour 2017 voters who switched to the Tories in 2019, more switched Reform, or stayed with the Tories than back to Labour. It is a bizzare strategy.
Thanks to everyone who engaged with my blog outlining deprivation in Hastings; it now has over 1,000 views. I am currently selling a book that explores housing, poverty, education, health and environmental problems in Hastings. This can be ordered through Amazon.
www.amazon.co.uk/Fixing-Hasti...
A blog summarising my research on deprivation in Hastings and how it has increased. It contains visualisations outlining how inequality varies across the town, with the option to make these maps interactive for those interested.
www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/depriva...
Enjoyed selling copies of my book at the makers fair this weekend.
🚨Data Update 🚨
We are pleased to release an updated version of the 2024 BES Face-to-Face Post-Election Survey dataset (v1.0.1) that includes improved versions of two important survey weights (wt_demog and wt_vote) based on new estimates of the VEP.
www.britishelectionstudy.com/2024-general...
