I guarantee that the Fed won’t tighten for the remainder of my career. But if they do, my career will be very short. –The late great Greg Smith

14-week RSI, a measure of price momentum. Full track record since SPX inception, including pre-1970 failures. Latest signal on April 17, 2026.

Hardware over software. Uptrend intact.

Comment: Uptrends intact until proven otherwise.

Resolution of current GLD buildout will provide the next directional clue. Ditto SLV.

Thanks! I've blocked and reported a few. What's the imposter's handle.

Upshot? There’s room to run, if history is any guide. Subject to spills and thrills, of course.

Price momentum is constructive. Comments: 1) There were many additional successes pre-1990, with notable failures in May 1957 and May 1969. 2) The best signals were preceded by greater drawdowns than the current case.

$QQQ on the loose.

China tech is no world beater. At least by this reckoning.

Upshot? Don’t neglect price momentum. There’s room to run, if history is any guide.

Comments: 1) SPX >6993 is required to produce a signal via weekly close. 2) There were many prior successes since SPX inception, with notable failures in May 1957 and May 1969. 3) The best signals were qualified by greater drawdowns than the current case.

New highs are almost always good news; it's just the last one that is not.

–Greg Morris

Price momentum leans bullish.

Do H&S failures occur on multi-year scale? Does the conventional measuring rule apply? If so, biotech has plenty of upside ahead. Subject to thrills and spills, of course.

Mid-week humor

Biotech on the loose. $XBI

$IGV bear trap at 3% scale. Geek note: Price >79.2 would duplicate at 5% scale.

Software is staging a potential "Oops"-type reversal. $IGV

Tomorrow’s session should be informative. While geopolitical developments could easily derail the nascent SPX reversal, a show of strength, such as closing above the open and in the top third of the daily bar, would be constructive, in my view. Thank you Captain Obvious?

Note: IPO is expected in June.

Interesting Reuters article regarding upcoming SpaceX IPO. Comment: A hypothetical $1.75T valuation would give SpaceX a 2.5% SPX weighting, comparable to AVGO but well behind mega-caps NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN. tinyurl.com/32p2wxdf

Done. Thanks for the alert!

Hardware is eating software. At least for now. $SOXX $IGV

SPX 7-day win streaks occur in both bull- and bear-market environments. Only 8 cases since 1955, however, produced >6% total gain and originated below 200-day trend. Upshot? While traditional thrust is so far absent, something important appears to be underway.

“Told you so.” –Max Hindsight

📢 Correction: I failed to flag the successful signal of early 2016, raising the odds to 12 of the last 15 cases.

SaaS? I'll pass.

Chip, dip, leadership. $SOXX

Agreed. It's clearly not early cycle (counting from the April 2025 reset). Failure below the March price low is the admission price for the 11-14 odds, in my view, so an incremental allocation is the most that's warranted.