Add margin deceleration to the bearish side of the ledger. Comment: February cutoff suggests that surging oil prices and bond yields aren't the market's only problem. H/t @_rob_anderson

H/t @HumbleStudent

That escalated quickly.

10-day NYSE new lows is likely to hurdle 4% of total issues at today's close, given 179 new lows at 1pm. This qualifies January 28th as a cyclical top, but doesn't guarantee it, as described below.

NVDA is arguably breaking down from an 8-month topping process. Downside acceleration would support the case.

Phil D. Gap is busy these days.

Bitcoin 4-year cycle?

USD reversal threshold is 100.6 by this reckoning. Potential “cash is king” moment, a.k.a. risk-off event.

Change of character underway?

Mag-7 complex Head & Shoulders top eyes 56 or lower. Don't shoot the messenger.

MSCI Israel: Potential H&S top or consolidation.

Mid-week humor

3/ Comment: While virtually all tops since 1995 were preceded by a volatility crack, there’s no law that one must occur. I like the perverse logic, though. False starts keep most investors off balance, a perfectly normal state of affairs.

2/ Upshot? Late-cycle VIX>30 usually marks the beginning of the end. The median/average lag from preliminary crack to cyclical top is about 6 months, suggesting a final top near September 2026, if (repeat, if) March 9th was just a crack.

1/ Volatility spikes occur during bear markets, but also manifest as “cracks” preceding cyclical tops. The chart below flags initial VIX >30 occurring >12 months after a cyclical bottom. SPX made subsequent new highs in 8 of 9 prior cases. (The COVID top gave no early warning.)

Prior support becomes potential resistance. $MAGS

U.S. Dollar Index, long-term perspective.

HGX versus SPX, for those interested. bsky.app/profile/mark...

2/ Upshot? With all eyes on energy, don’t neglect the housing sector given its outsized role in the market economy.

1/ Is there any hope for bond investors? A breakdown in homebuilder stocks is one scenario that would favor lower yields. We’ve seen this movie before. And while not shown here, crude oil prices continued to rise sharply following peak yield, reaching $147 in July 2008.

Not hearing much Zweig-thrust chatter this morning, though another ZBT setup day was logged on Friday. Comment: It takes setups to generate signals, but signals are the actionable thing.

10-day NYSE new lows finished the week at 3.8% of total issues. It would take 190 new lows on Monday, or an average of 105 over the next three sessions, to surpass the 4% threshold.

Global 10-year government yields.

Mag-7 breaking bad.

SPX critical support.

2/ Granular view from the invaluable @TimmerFidelity. Comment: The 2008 oil runup was not geopolitically induced.

1/ U.S. equities have suffered or stumbled during geopolitically induced oil shocks.

Walter Deemer: "Quando a Hora de Comprar Chegar, Você Não Vai Querer" (60 Anos de Trading) YouTube video by TraderBrasil

A recent interview of mine is now on YouTube:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjK...

The soundtrack's been dubbed because the facilitator was in Brazil. I don't really sound like that...

How high will crude fly? Impossible to know in advance, but prior geopolitical shocks since 1990 suggest $100-$140/bbl. Going back further, 1973/1979 analogs project $213/$136, if my math is correct.

Gold weekly bar. Next important support lies near 4400. GLD equivalent is approximately 4040.