Strongest tornado in California since the Scotts Valley EF1 tornado in December 2024
www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/...
Posts by Daniel Swain
Talking weather and climate with with Daniel Swain, @ucanr.edu climate scientist: A conversation regarding the record-smashing warm month of March for the western U.S. and what it means for the region going forward.
I'll have another "lunch hour" live virtual office hour at 12 noon PT on Tue, Apr 21, to discuss continuation of an unusually active spring weather pattern in California, broader context of strange 25-26 Water Year, and links to now record-warm NE Pacific.
Talking weather and climate with with Daniel Swain, @ucanr.edu climate scientist: A conversation regarding the record-smashing warm month of March for the western U.S. and what it means for the region going forward.
New Weather West post out this evening: "Unusually active April weather pattern to continue this week, and possibly beyond, as subtropical northeastern Pacific waters reach record warmth."
New Weather West post out this evening: "Unusually active April weather pattern to continue this week, and possibly beyond, as subtropical northeastern Pacific waters reach record warmth."
I'll have another "lunch hour" live virtual office hour at 12 noon PT on Tue, Apr 21, to discuss continuation of an unusually active spring weather pattern in California, broader context of strange 25-26 Water Year, and links to now record-warm NE Pacific.
News: a leading NSF supported University of Oklahoma atmospheric science summer undergraduate research program that has mentored hundreds of top atmospheric scientists over two decades has been canceled for 2026 due to funding loss. (repost w/correct link) More: tinyurl.com/3zjzf7vu
Daniel Swain stands outside with evergreen trees and National Center for Atmospheric Research building in background
Monday, April 20, live at ~7:45am PT on CBS LA Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social, @ucanr.edu climate scientist, will talk about El Nino with @caliweatherguy.bsky.social
www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/
In case you missed it live, the recording is available below (as always!). There were some great questions from the audience yesterday (which is usually true, but I always like to highlight the participatory nature of these sessions!).
Join #UCANR climate scientist Daniel Swain tomorrow, April 16, at 12 pm. ⬇️
@weatherwest.bsky.social
On Thursday, Apr 16 at noon PT, I'll have a "lunch hour" livestream to discuss the already prolonged & severe marine heatwave affecting Pacific ocean near California. Also: are upcoming April showers connected to a West Pacific supertyphoon?
I can see the econometric analysis now: extreme wet bulb heat risk in low-latitude coastal megacities mitigated by the fact that they will, by that point, be underwater due to rising seas--thereby eliminating the GDP reduction due to the need for universal air-conditioned moon suits. Checkmate!
I have had multiple editors from around country tell me that their dedicated weather team is the single most profitable, and therefore sustainable, part of the entire newsroom in the 2020s. Scaling up weather teams might actually help some papers remain viable! I'm all for it.
Glad to see that the Sacramento Bee is advertising a cool new newsroom meteorologist position! Frankly, I think every major regional/national newspaper needs in-house expertise like this. Role requires degree in meteorology/atm science (as it should!)
ECMWF Science Blog graphic titled ‘How confident should we be in a prediction of El Niño?’ alongside a colour‑shaded Pacific Ocean temperature map. Author Tim Stockdale.
How confident should we be in a prediction of El Niño?
Seasonal forecasts show an emerging warm ENSO signal, but predictability remains low during the spring barrier.
Read our blog diving deeper into how to interpret our ENSO-related seasonal forecasts ➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...
I've excerpted a ~5 minute segment from my recent livestream discussing my deepening concerns regarding on the ongoing (and accelerating) threats not only to weather and climate science, but American science leadership and continuity at large.
Still expecting an unusually strong cold frontal passage (by NorCal April standards) later this PM. Expect a period of intense rainfall & embedded thunderstorms with gusty wind at lower elevs (locally severe near SF Bay), plus a burst of heavy & accumulating Sierra snowfall. #CAwx
I've have a short-notice pop-up livestream today at 2:30pm PT to discuss the outbreak of unusually widespread thunderstorms across Northern California this PM, including the potential for a few supercells/severe storms containing hail & isolated tornado.
We now have 13 different models with 637 different ensemble members with El Niño forecasts out through at least September 2026.
They suggest a best estimate of 2.2C for September; interestingly ECMWF (which was seen as particularly hot when it came out) is right around the middle of the pack:
It's going to be quite stormy by April standards. Possibly all of the above.
Today was already quite active in NorCal, w/several severe thunderstorms & at least one photogenic supercell. Fri & Sat will be even more unusual, w/widespread t-storms & likely at least a few severe ones. I may have a pop-up livestream, time TBD, on Fri or Sat for a radar tour!
Bonkers photo from that Central Valley supercell. @phaneritic.bsky.social or anyone else that way catch a glimpse?
Well, have I got news for you about the potential for both increased influxes of tropical moisture into the SW this summer in addition to elevated heat risk...👀 😳
I've excerpted a ~5 minute segment from my recent livestream discussing my deepening concerns regarding on the ongoing (and accelerating) threats not only to weather and climate science, but American science leadership and continuity at large.
In case you missed the livestream yesterday, the recording is available via the link below! The next few days look very active by CA April standards. I also discussed my growing concerns regarding the immediate near-term risk to American science continuity.
I couldn't agree more with Kate that it's okay--even necessary--to get mad, stay mad, and channel that anger along any number of constructive avenues in this disconcerting moment.
Could be interesting! Seems that every 2-3 years we get some kind of significant WPAC recurvature-perturbing-the-North Pacific-jet-related event in autumn or spring, through remains to be seen whether phasing is right (and also, where the amplified ridge/trough actually sets up!).