Advertisement · 728 × 90

Posts by Daniel Swain

Strongest tornado in California since the Scotts Valley EF1 tornado in December 2024
www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/...

4 hours ago 49 20 0 1
Preview
Daniel Swain Climate Scientist Berkeley Climate Change Network · Episode

Talking weather and climate with with Daniel Swain, @ucanr.edu climate scientist: A conversation regarding the record-smashing warm month of March for the western U.S. and what it means for the region going forward.

1 day ago 65 11 1 0
Preview
Unusually active California spring weather pattern persists--are there links to record warm Pacific? - YouTube The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 4/21/2026 topic: I'...

I'll have another "lunch hour" live virtual office hour at 12 noon PT on Tue, Apr 21, to discuss continuation of an unusually active spring weather pattern in California, broader context of strange 25-26 Water Year, and links to now record-warm NE Pacific.

2 days ago 79 16 1 1
Preview
Daniel Swain Climate Scientist Berkeley Climate Change Network · Episode

Talking weather and climate with with Daniel Swain, @ucanr.edu climate scientist: A conversation regarding the record-smashing warm month of March for the western U.S. and what it means for the region going forward.

1 day ago 65 11 1 0
Preview
Unusually active April weather pattern to continue this week, and possibly beyond, as subtropical northeastern Pacific waters reach record warmth - Weather West April 19, 2026 - Daniel Swain - Milder temperatures in April than March, with much more precipitation; snowpack, however, remains extremely low What a strange Water Year it has been in 2025-2026! We started the WY with record rainfall during Oct-Dec across much of the central and south coast, including the wettest Oct-Dec period ever observed in Santa Barbara, Ventura, Kern, and #

New Weather West post out this evening: "Unusually active April weather pattern to continue this week, and possibly beyond, as subtropical northeastern Pacific waters reach record warmth."

2 days ago 124 38 3 2
Preview
Unusually active April weather pattern to continue this week, and possibly beyond, as subtropical northeastern Pacific waters reach record warmth - Weather West April 19, 2026 - Daniel Swain - Milder temperatures in April than March, with much more precipitation; snowpack, however, remains extremely low What a strange Water Year it has been in 2025-2026! We started the WY with record rainfall during Oct-Dec across much of the central and south coast, including the wettest Oct-Dec period ever observed in Santa Barbara, Ventura, Kern, and #

New Weather West post out this evening: "Unusually active April weather pattern to continue this week, and possibly beyond, as subtropical northeastern Pacific waters reach record warmth."

2 days ago 124 38 3 2
Preview
Unusually active California spring weather pattern persists--are there links to record warm Pacific? - YouTube The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 4/21/2026 topic: I'...

I'll have another "lunch hour" live virtual office hour at 12 noon PT on Tue, Apr 21, to discuss continuation of an unusually active spring weather pattern in California, broader context of strange 25-26 Water Year, and links to now record-warm NE Pacific.

2 days ago 79 16 1 1
Preview
News: Leading atmospheric science summer undergraduate research program canceled due to NSF funding loss Quieter weather on tap for a few days for most of the country

News: a leading NSF supported University of Oklahoma atmospheric science summer undergraduate research program that has mentored hundreds of top atmospheric scientists over two decades has been canceled for 2026 due to funding loss. (repost w/correct link) More: tinyurl.com/3zjzf7vu

3 days ago 136 89 2 25
Advertisement
Daniel Swain stands outside with evergreen trees and National Center for Atmospheric Research building in background

Daniel Swain stands outside with evergreen trees and National Center for Atmospheric Research building in background

Monday, April 20, live at ~7:45am PT on CBS LA Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social, @ucanr.edu climate scientist, will talk about El Nino with @caliweatherguy.bsky.social
www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/

4 days ago 35 5 1 0

In case you missed it live, the recording is available below (as always!). There were some great questions from the audience yesterday (which is usually true, but I always like to highlight the participatory nature of these sessions!).

4 days ago 51 13 1 0

Join #UCANR climate scientist Daniel Swain tomorrow, April 16, at 12 pm. ⬇️
@weatherwest.bsky.social

6 days ago 21 4 0 1
Preview
Severe marine heatwave intensifies; plus, how are April showers connected to a supertyphoon? - YouTube The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 4/16/2026 topic: I'...

On Thursday, Apr 16 at noon PT, I'll have a "lunch hour" livestream to discuss the already prolonged & severe marine heatwave affecting Pacific ocean near California. Also: are upcoming April showers connected to a West Pacific supertyphoon?

6 days ago 65 20 3 2

I can see the econometric analysis now: extreme wet bulb heat risk in low-latitude coastal megacities mitigated by the fact that they will, by that point, be underwater due to rising seas--thereby eliminating the GDP reduction due to the need for universal air-conditioned moon suits. Checkmate!

6 days ago 7 0 2 0

I have had multiple editors from around country tell me that their dedicated weather team is the single most profitable, and therefore sustainable, part of the entire newsroom in the 2020s. Scaling up weather teams might actually help some papers remain viable! I'm all for it.

1 week ago 8 1 1 0
Preview
McClatchy Media hiring California Meteorologist in Sacramento, CA | LinkedIn Posted 9:57:50 AM. McClatchy Media is seeking an engaging, creative and reader-focused meteorologist-journalist who…See this and similar jobs on LinkedIn.

Glad to see that the Sacramento Bee is advertising a cool new newsroom meteorologist position! Frankly, I think every major regional/national newspaper needs in-house expertise like this. Role requires degree in meteorology/atm science (as it should!)

1 week ago 97 19 1 0
ECMWF Science Blog graphic titled ‘How confident should we be in a prediction of El Niño?’ alongside a colour‑shaded Pacific Ocean temperature map. Author Tim Stockdale.

ECMWF Science Blog graphic titled ‘How confident should we be in a prediction of El Niño?’ alongside a colour‑shaded Pacific Ocean temperature map. Author Tim Stockdale.

How confident should we be in a prediction of El Niño?

Seasonal forecasts show an emerging warm ENSO signal, but predictability remains low during the spring barrier.

Read our blog diving deeper into how to interpret our ENSO-related seasonal forecasts ➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...

1 week ago 43 16 0 0
American science is at risk not because of budget cuts, but because of executive interference
American science is at risk not because of budget cuts, but because of executive interference In this clip excerpted from my recent livestream, I explain why American science is currently at existential risk, and how the current crisis stems not primarily from budget cuts from Congress, but instead from direct interference from the executive branch. I discuss the immediate implications of th

I've excerpted a ~5 minute segment from my recent livestream discussing my deepening concerns regarding on the ongoing (and accelerating) threats not only to weather and climate science, but American science leadership and continuity at large.

1 week ago 245 69 5 6
Video

Still expecting an unusually strong cold frontal passage (by NorCal April standards) later this PM. Expect a period of intense rainfall & embedded thunderstorms with gusty wind at lower elevs (locally severe near SF Bay), plus a burst of heavy & accumulating Sierra snowfall. #CAwx

1 week ago 103 17 6 3
Advertisement
Preview
Pop-up livestream to discuss severe thunderstorms in Northern California, including live radar tour! - YouTube The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 4/10/2026 topic: Th...

I've have a short-notice pop-up livestream today at 2:30pm PT to discuss the outbreak of unusually widespread thunderstorms across Northern California this PM, including the potential for a few supercells/severe storms containing hail & isolated tornado.

1 week ago 36 5 1 2
Post image

We now have 13 different models with 637 different ensemble members with El Niño forecasts out through at least September 2026.

They suggest a best estimate of 2.2C for September; interestingly ECMWF (which was seen as particularly hot when it came out) is right around the middle of the pack:

1 week ago 157 53 5 11

It's going to be quite stormy by April standards. Possibly all of the above.

1 week ago 3 0 1 0

Today was already quite active in NorCal, w/several severe thunderstorms & at least one photogenic supercell. Fri & Sat will be even more unusual, w/widespread t-storms & likely at least a few severe ones. I may have a pop-up livestream, time TBD, on Fri or Sat for a radar tour!

1 week ago 122 22 7 2
Post image

Bonkers photo from that Central Valley supercell. @phaneritic.bsky.social or anyone else that way catch a glimpse?

1 week ago 177 25 12 3

Well, have I got news for you about the potential for both increased influxes of tropical moisture into the SW this summer in addition to elevated heat risk...👀 😳

1 week ago 5 0 1 0
American science is at risk not because of budget cuts, but because of executive interference
American science is at risk not because of budget cuts, but because of executive interference In this clip excerpted from my recent livestream, I explain why American science is currently at existential risk, and how the current crisis stems not primarily from budget cuts from Congress, but instead from direct interference from the executive branch. I discuss the immediate implications of th

I've excerpted a ~5 minute segment from my recent livestream discussing my deepening concerns regarding on the ongoing (and accelerating) threats not only to weather and climate science, but American science leadership and continuity at large.

1 week ago 245 69 5 6

In case you missed the livestream yesterday, the recording is available via the link below! The next few days look very active by CA April standards. I also discussed my growing concerns regarding the immediate near-term risk to American science continuity.

1 week ago 45 7 0 0
Preview
Why this NASA climate scientist wants you to stay angry “I don’t think we rebuild science without getting mad.”

I couldn't agree more with Kate that it's okay--even necessary--to get mad, stay mad, and channel that anger along any number of constructive avenues in this disconcerting moment.

1 week ago 142 31 3 1

Could be interesting! Seems that every 2-3 years we get some kind of significant WPAC recurvature-perturbing-the-North Pacific-jet-related event in autumn or spring, through remains to be seen whether phasing is right (and also, where the amplified ridge/trough actually sets up!).

1 week ago 10 0 1 0
Advertisement
Preview
Unsettled weather, including some thunderstorms, headed for California. Also: another federal update - YouTube The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 4/8/2026 topic: I'l...

I'll host a live office hour on Wed, Apr 8 at 2pm PT to discuss imminent shift to a more unsettled weather pattern across CA & the West, including potential for widespread thunderstorm activity & beneficial precip. Also: I'll offer another federal update.

2 weeks ago 74 26 1 3
Preview
After a historically hot March, an active April weather pattern will bring thunderstorms, cooler temperatures, and likely even some Sierra snow - Weather West April 7, 2026 - Daniel Swain - Following a ridiculous ridge in March and associated record-shattering warmth, a more transient pattern has established in April Well, I won't belabor the point: March 2026 was a month that will long be remembered for its astonishing warmth across California and the broader West. Snowpack in most regions is now near or below all-time record #

Since there's, uh, absolutely nothing else going on in the world right now, you might consider reading this late evening blog update on a potential NorCal thunderstorm outbreak over the next few days and a chaotic Pacific-wide weather pattern this April.👀

2 weeks ago 257 36 6 3