Retail sales surprise in context, and alternative business cycle indicators (incl. @philadelphiafed.bsky.social coincident index). Consumers spent $8.1 bn more in January in gas stations #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Gallup, Conf Bd, U.Mich & Morning Consult confidence/sentiment in wartime @gallup.com #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Our core argument: the surge in energy prices from the war in Iran will not only raise inflation directly through the usual channels but will also trigger a sharp rise in inflation expectations.
How badly is the Russian economy doing? Frankly, nobody knows, perhaps not even Putin... and oil prices are down from late-March #EconSky @bofit.suomenpankki.fi
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Wisconsin after "Liberation Day" -- not exactly basking in the sunshine. Employment, exports down; GDP stalls in Q4 #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Karoline Leavitt @PressSec Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump is Accelerating Medical Treatments for Serious Mental Illness
we've noticed and i'm glad he's getting help
A paper for our times, by J. Aizenman, R. Desbordes, J. Saadaoui "Bilateral conflict risk and trade" @nber WP #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Future gasoline prices: use gasoline futures, oil futures, it's not looking good for a quick return to $3 gasoline at retail... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Don't expect gasoline prices to soon fall back to pre-war levels, absent a global recession #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Council of Economic Advisers' Economic Report of the President, 2026 - why trend growth so fast? Productivity boom b/c of deregulation(!) and AI #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Trump's Friday declaration of Strait's opening was a mirage... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
@jefffrankel.bsky.social asks & answers "Is a natural resource curse crowding out US renewable energy?"
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
For Kalshi, "If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before XXX X, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from IMF PortWatch."
These are generally not, I bet, economists betting on Kalshi (or Polymarket)
Why do Trump (one-sided) declarations move (prediction) markets so much? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
We'd need 1.5% (ann'd) CPI inflation over the next 8 months to hit the pre-War trend value for December 2026 (in yr to February, (pre-War) inflation was 2.4% (in log terms) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
IP, mfg prodn fall, both below consensus; ind cap util < consensus; plot of NBER BCDC and alternative indicators #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Shiller's measure of long-term price-earnings ratio suggests stocks are overvalued, at least in historical terms. CAPE is now at levels last seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble
WSJ Apr survey added to OMB v. SPF, IMF
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Iran, Oil, OPEC flash talk @uwmadison.bsky.social #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
IMF's WEO projects cont'd growth in US in reference scenario #EconSky @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @atlantafed.org
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
IMF WEO projections (reference, plus adverse and severe); we are but flies to wanton Trumps #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Mr. Trump, Tear Down this (Car Tariff) Wall! #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
AIER Everyday Price Index jumps! U.Michigan mean exp'd infl suggests prices will not be falling "on day one" #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Instantaneous headline PCE inflation (using Cleveland Fed nowcast for March), CPI q/q AR inflation #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
NEW: The theory that the dollar's status as the world's dominant reserve currency is a main driver of America's large & persistent current account deficits is wrong, Maurice Obstfeld writes.
