So much for the theory. Iran should allow fertiliser to pass through the Strait of Hormuz; America should not blockade urea shipments from Iran. Tragically, neither shows any inclination to do so. High petrol prices make biofuel more attractive to farmers, not less. And rich countries are in a selfish mood. Failure to act thus looks baked in. In the face of an avoidable disaster, that is shameful.

Fair but depressing conclusion from @economist.com - we could avoid some of the worst of the hunger, but we won’t
economist.com/leaders/2026...

New data: data.pepfar.gov/dashboard

And State isn't posting final Q1 Q2 Q3 data --the draft data suggested a considerable dropoff in testing and ARV coverage in that period --picture: PEPFAR-supported clinic delivery of ART worldwide by quarter.

More broadly, we know services and outreach to harder to reach communities like men having sex with men and adolescent girls is way down.

HIV testing centrally or clinic-level supported by PEPFAR fell from 23.7m in 2024 Q4 to 19.6m in 2025 Q4. This is bad news for the future.

This largely appears to be about South Africa, where the program suggests 4.3m were receiving ART from PEPFAR supported clinics in 2024 compared to 2.6m for Q4 2025. The global numbers suggest that other clinics/agencies are reported to have stepped in to fill the gap.

The credit that PEPFAR will take excluding central support has dropped: the program results suggest 19.4 were receiving ART in 2024 by PEPFAR supported clinics compared to 17.4 million in 2025Q4.

The global program results uggesting 20.6 million were on ART in 2025 Q4, the same as was reported in 2024. This is “supported by” PEPFAR, so that includes direct service delivery and clinic-level technical assistance but also central (non-clinic level) support.

Millions Lost Access to PEPFAR-Supported HIV Drugs During the US Foreign Assistance Pause The US State Department has collected data on the performance of PEPFAR in 2025, but is yet to officially release it. A Freedom of Information suit is ongoing. In the meantime, some data has become av...

Picture only minorly changed from draft data I wrote about here: www.cgdev.org/blog/million...

Updates only for South Africa in Q4 2025: the final figures show 111,455 more people on ART and 273,739 more people tested than in the draft. Other countries remain same.

Quick thread on newly released Q4 2025 PEPFAR data...

TLDR: antiretroviral coverage appears back to levels of 2024 under 'PEPFAR supported' programs, testing still down, I think Q2/Q3 were probably a lot worse, haven't looked at other (v. important) indicators.

Ooooh, aaah

indevelopmentmag.com/issues/

Some quick thoughts on Secretary Bessent’s WB/IMF Spring Meetings statement as regards the World Bank bits… TLDR: one really good bit, some silly bits, and a lot in the middle.

In short 'give clients choice!' over energy sources, climate, 'tell clients what to do!' over procurement, minerals. Would prefer consistency of opinion toward choice.

But yay focus on poorest for IDA!

Have Climate Finance Targets Changed What the World Bank Actually Finances? How much do World Bank targets, rules about project appraisals considering mitigation and adaptation, and a shadow price of carbon make a difference to what the World Bank actually finances? In a new ...

I’m not sure how much things would change if you got rid of the WB climate target.
www.cgdev.org/blog/have-cl...

Abandon the “distortionary 45% climate finance target, which impedes market efficiency... and undermines efforts to reduce poverty “
I admit I used to be concerned about that, but I think the Bank is broadly telling the truth that it does development projects that sometimes have climate impacts.

The Role of MDB Local Content Rules in Industrial Strategy As part of a general revival of interest in industrial strategy and job creation, some multilateral development bank (MDB) stakeholders suggest there may be a role for MDB-financed procurement to more...

“we expect the Bank to expand the mandatory use of quality approaches [in] procurement”
Actual record of quality based selection in the Bank mixed. Certainly more time consuming and bureaucratic. Don’t mandate it, give clients the option to use it.
www.cgdev.org/publication/...

Chinese Contractors and Development Project Quality This paper tests the hypothesis that the growing proportion of World Bank contracts granted to Chinese firms, particularly in the infrastructure sector, may undermine results by exposing projects to l...

The available evidence is Chinese firms bid the lowest and the involvement of Chinese firms has zero impact on project outcomes. Stop messing with countries getting what they want at the cheapest price.
www.cgdev.org/publication/...

Chinese Contractors and Development Project Quality This paper tests the hypothesis that the growing proportion of World Bank contracts granted to Chinese firms, particularly in the infrastructure sector, may undermine results by exposing projects to l...

“increased scrutiny of state-owned enterprise participation in Bank-financed procurement “
This means ‘increased scrutiny of Chinese bidders.’ ....

“We also expect more from the Bank on critical minerals, which are central to economic growth, technological leadership, and countries’ economic security”
Not really opposed if client countries want it but whose technological leadership?

For Richer Countries, Climate Mitigation Should Begin at Home The world’s poorest countries—those classified as low- and lower-middle-income—contribute just one seventh of global emissions despite being home to half of the global population. A just solution to t...

“The World Bank should support an all-of-the-above approach to energy technologies—including fossil fuels… rather than restrict borrower choice”
I can hardly argue… although coal? Forget climate, the local environmental impacts are really grim.
www.cgdev.org/blog/richer-...

We Should Be Spending More of Available Aid in Poorer Countries, Not Less In the context of an ongoing debate around the role of aid in middle income countries, it is worth revisiting the discussion around aid allocation in general.

For IDA “Facilitating graduation to IBRD concentrates scarce donor resources and IDA attention on the economies with the greatest needs.” Yes! Yay! Absolutely!
www.cgdev.org/publication/...

Is China Unfairly (Dis)Favored at the World Bank? China’s relationship with multilateral development institutions, including the World Bank, is of great interest to US lawmakers. In particular, there is concern over the fact that the World Bank lends...

On China and WB see: www.cgdev.org/blog/china-u...

“IBRD... must prioritiz[e] the implementation of its graduation policy. “
Well yes but a bit like with the IFC, lending to Chinas of the world makes money, adds portfolio diversity and learning. So, sure, but the net win is at best small.

Has the IDA PSW Increased IFC Investments in IDA Countries? The World Bank’s Independent Evaluation Group has just issued a “Focused Assessment” of the IDA Private Sector Window, looking at the PSW’s first five years of operation. The PSW, launched in 2018, us...

On IFC and the poorest countries see: www.cgdev.org/blog/has-ida...
www.cgdev.org/publication/...

“IFC [should] redouble efforts to meet its … pledge to make 40% of new commitments in the poorest and most fragile countries. … progress towards this commitment has fallen unacceptably short.”
True. I think delivery takes a new model, though –one that involves working much closer with governments.

...especially the big, straightforward, comparatively profitable business in richer countries that also adds to portfolio diversity. Take that away and you’d probably add to the need for donor resources over the long term.

For the IFC “We are supportive [of] private capital mobilization – but … not … pursuing business that the private sector could do on its own.”
I guess I’d say that makes sense but has consequences. Most IFC investments aren’t strictly necessary to projects going ahead...

Secretary Bessent IMFC-DC Statement This year’s Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank provide an important opportunity to engage on current global economic challenges as well as our work with partners a...

Bessent's IMF/WB statement: home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

Some quick thoughts on Secretary Bessent’s WB/IMF Spring Meetings statement as regards the World Bank bits… TLDR: one really good bit, some silly bits, and a lot in the middle.

Rewriting the Case for Aid: Purpose, Priorities and Political Realities This CGD event will unveil a vision for ODA at a moment when the traditional aid model is breaking down and serious debate has begun over what should replace it.

www.cgdev.org/event/rewrit...
www.cgdev.org/publication/...