Yeah there’s a lot of uncertainty and uncertainty is bad for the market. Even domestic producers may not be immune to further downturn if diesel, shipping and other input costs keep rising. I think you’re right to sit back and let things settle for a little while.

So what happens next? A highly risky ground invasion? We’ve been underestimating the Iranians and that’s been a huge mistake. I hope we don’t continue that

Fun fact: California will face jet fuel shortages in a couple weeks. As will the UK

Hormuz Strait closed = higher oil prices

I still like the stock. I love CRCL as you know but the market is still confused by CRCL so it’s probably going to drift until they report earnings in May.

I really like the company and took a transatlantic cruise on Norwegian a couple years ago. They have a product called Haven that’s more upscale and was an incredible experience.. so I’ve been looking for an entry point to buy the stock.

I also bought some longer duration NCLH PUTs.. the $14 strike June 18 expiration. They expire after Norwegian’s next earnings report and I think that’s when the real fuel expense pain will be on full parade.

“Buy the rumor, sell the news”

It’s counterintuitive but the stock market looks ahead and by the time positive news breaks, the gains have already been made. Meaning, that if you wait til the big announcement, you’re too late.

April 10 NCLH $18 PUTs

Iran supplies Russia with its drones btw

And not one carrier can pass through the Strait of Hormuz. A $20K Iranian sea-drone can sink a billion dollar American ship.

Optimism is an emotion and emotions lead to investing mistakes

This bounce is consistent with what I’ve been pointing out for weeks.. that US investors are FAR too complacent and FAR too optimistic. There’s a fundamental disconnect between the market’s psychology and the men’s psychology who are in a pissing contest on a global scale

I dropped my limit sell order to $42.. if I’m wrong and it goes up tomorrow that’s fine. I own lots of CRCL and CALL options on CRCL

I think I’ll lower my limit order and get out of most of my CRCA and look for an entry point in the low $30’s

I tried to sell a bunch of my CRCA at $43.70 but it didn’t reach that high. I don’t trust the CRCA trade in the short term.

I bought the $18 NCLH April 10 expiration.. paid $0.49

If you can sell some trades today that you are even on, or up a little on, sell the portion of shares that you paid most for so you lower your avg purchase price

I bought more PUTs on NCLH.. that was a huge win last week and should deliver again this coming week. Fuel costs are not going down anytime soon

I can’t foresee any possibility, besides magic, where the price of oil goes down. If anything, there will likely be panic buying (hoarding) of oil by countries who are in short supply.

Yes I’ve been buying more of this PUTs actually and I also bought some against United Airlines (UAL) $80 strike May 15 expiration. I got some yesterday under $3 but added a few more today at $3.20

Markets turned positive just for a moment on that “news” but what does that “news” really mean?

Sounds like Iran is the winner if all things remain equal.. but of course I don’t think things are wrapped up in a pretty package.. it’s not going to be that simple.

For example, let's say Apple has a highly anticipated new product announcement. The rumors circulate for days or weeks. Apple holds a big event—their stock price drops. This is VERY common. It's a trap that many novice investors fall into.

It's better to buy the rumor and sell just before the news

"Buy the rumor, sell the news"

It's counterintuitive but the stock market looks ahead and by the time positive news breaks, the gains have already been made. Meaning, that if you wait til the big announcement, you're too late.

I think he's hoping to soften any backlash or uproar for his upcoming ground invasion that's already planned and will happen in a week or two.

helium (used for semiconductor manufacturing) and countless other inputs.

I don't think Trump is addressing the nation to say we're done with Iran.. he doesn't need a speech for that.

I'm not buying this stock market rally. I'm not buying that we're anywhere near a ceasefire. Iran continues to deny that any negotiations are taking place and they continue to strangle the global economy by restricting access to energy, aluminum, fertilizer,

NASDAQ Composite 1-day chart showing intraday weakness with red arrow highlighting declining price action into the close

The reason I think the broader market is largely starting to get more realistic is this poor strength and eroding upside into the close. This shows fear:

They had an oil expert on CNBC who was also former CIA. He said what is obvious — oil futures contracts are paper. They don’t create molecules of hydrocarbons. The shortage reality is only weeks away.

Has there ever been a time Trump moved substantial military forces and didn’t use them? It’s annoying hearing Wall Street traders say this will be over soon. C’mon get serious. You have one job.. to look ahead and protect your clients’ investments.