This was 3rd and 14 from outside of their kickers range. An interception would have been a good result.

YTY

That’s not USC’s problem! Join a conference!

USC was willing to play week zero! Why wasn’t ND?

They have:
- elite OL
- elite WRs
- elite-ish TE
- elite RB

Wonder what they should do…

Wow really impressive sample size

Didn’t need the “I ain’t a gambler” part, the rest made that very clear!

Kinda feels like a “we feel good about the rest of this game so we’re not gonna risk a dropback in an obvious situation and maybe we get lucky and catch them off guard” call

Things are happening!!!

The same team that hasn’t beaten a playoff-caliber team since week 1, while losing to two teams that weren’t even close to playoff-caliber?

You think they’re better? Whatever fine. But to act like it’s not debatable is hilarious.

Miami, the team that couldn’t even make the *ACC* CG?

This you?

Put it this way: I will be thrilled if Auburn only scores 20.

If 1-loss JMU wins out, does the ACC champ even deserve an auto-bid?

SOR would suggest:
- GT or Miami: Yes
- Pitt: Probably
- Virginia: Maybe
- Duke or SMU: lol nope

I don’t think the suggestion is to release games yearly; seems like it is to release a single game and then sell updated rosters, enhancements, improvements, DLC, etc. yearly.

An additional point of note/clarification: It does not matter to SOR which games on a schedule were won or lost; only the number of wins/losses.

For example, Alabama's SOR would be the same as it is now if we reversed the results of their FSU and UGA games.

Finally, SOR employs the cdf for the Poisson binomial distribution to combine each of the individual exp win pct values and a team's results into a single chance-of-record-or-better value. That's it!

The expected win pct values incorporate the opponent's up-to-date FPI strength and advantages related to home field, travel distance, and rest.

You can see how each of LSU's opponents' chance to win values vary based on those factors (very little, except for hfa).

Let's use 8-0 Texas A&M as an example.

This is their schedule, so far, and the expected win pct that an average top 25 team would have against each team on the schedule (AVGTOPTM_EXP_WINPCT):

There seems to be some interest in how SOR is calculated, so I will do a quick thread.

If you aren't familiar with SOR (Strength of Record), it's defined at the bottom of the CFB FPI Resume page
t.co/3JZenVc4nt

ESPN Analytics' college FPI is out!

Shoutout to @wessonmo.bsky.social and @laurpar.bsky.social for their work on the model and here's @neilpaine.bsky.social with the story!

www.espn.com/college-foot...

First look at NFL FPI ratings for the 2025 season!

Unveiling our 2025 NFL season projections: Predicting the top teams and Super Bowl favorites ESPN's Football Power Index ratings are live. Let's predict the 2025 season, including playoff chances for 32 teams and potential draft order.

Our initial 2025 NFL FPI ratings, rankings and projections are out!

I wrote about takeaways, from the smallest favorite we’ve seen in years to a potential bounce back in Cincinnati.

www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

BPI R1

If water is not a drink, why would water with ice in it be a drink?

SOS matters for Army but not Bama is not logically consistent.

Is there a logically-consistent approach where SMU should be in over Army and Bama?

The whole point is that the “just win your games” is dumb when one team is playing a schedule where every team they play is seven points better.

You can’t say “just win your games” to justify SMU over Bama while also having SMU in over, say, Army.

bsky.app/profile/wess...

Those 6-6 teams are better than 9 of the 12 teams SMU played in the regular season