Happy new tax year 2026 • Resolution Foundation The start of April marks the beginning of the new tax year, meaning households will face a wide range of tax, benefit and utility bill changes. Benefit changes in April will boost incomes for the poor...

Happy new tax year to all who celebrate! Here's a quick 🧵on the tax and benefit changes coming in this month in the context of rising energy bills. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Today we discussed new research from @resolutionfoundation.org co-authored with @gthwaites.bsky.social @annastansbury.bsky.social and Richmond Egyei on the long shadow that deep poverty in childhood casts over the earnings of graduates in the labour market.

Thread below on what we found …

The line chart shows two panels. The left panel shows Bank of England Bank Rate (black), the OBR's forecasts for it in November 2025 (green) and March 2026 (red), and most recent market expectations (blue). Recent market expectations are significantly above OBR forecasts. The right panel shows the yield curve - government borrowing costs - to 2065. This shows the OBR forecasts, as before, the minimum yields since November (light blue), and most recent yields (dark blue). The latter are now at elevated levels compared to most recent forecasts and significantly above their recent minimum.

Slightly eye-wincing moves in markets as expectations rose for a sharp rise in interest rates later in 2026 following the Bank's decision to hold rates in March's MPC meeting.

And today we're seeing 10-year bond yields rising to levels last seen in 2008.

Good news, it isn't...

The scatter chart shows the voting history of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) since 2017 to present. It is annotated with March 2026, the most recent and a unanimous vote, and September 2021, the last occasion the MPC voted unanimously.

Unanimous in the face of uncertainty.

Yesterday's Bank of England decision to hold interest rates at 3.75% was the first unanimous vote by the 9-strong Monetary Policy Committee in over 4 years.

HMT ministers must have been silently screaming at today’s public finance data - nicely within OBR projections, but mainly because of friendly gilt markets, which have turned sharply in the other direction since Iran conflict. (Useful thread 👇🏻)

And that’s before considering perhaps an even bigger spending pressure: what the Government decides to do to support households with surging energy prices. (ends)

So, not a great release this morning suggesting the public finances deteriorated in February. Looking ahead, lower equity prices will reduce receipts and higher interest rates will push up spending...

Nonetheless, public sector spending in the year to February are £2.6bn below expectations. That’s largely because of lower debt interest costs over the year. But with markets pricing interest rate hike(s), the outlook for debt interest spending also looks set to worsen.

On the spending side, February's data was also disappointing with spending £7.7bn above expectations. Debt interest costs were a surprising £4.4 billion above forecast in Feb.

However, the outbreak of conflict across the Middle East has lowered equity prices by around 8% this month, taking them to December levels, erasing a large chunk of these gains.

With this month’s data preceding conflict in the Middle East, today’s data corroborate the OBR’s judgement that public finances seemed on a stronger footing with underlying £12bn lower public sector borrowing in 2030-31 driven by higher receipts (see green bars below).

Self-assessment receipts have totalled £55.7bn in the year-to-Feb, exceeding those OBR Nov forecasts by 6%. The OBR will have seen some of this month’s data pre-Spring Forecast, and raised its forecasts of SA receipts by £2.6bn this year and £2.4bn on average until 2030-31.

Receipts have been performing well, now just £2.4bn below the OBR’s year-to-Feb forecast, with strong (cash) outturns for Self-Assessment Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax.

The data for February were not encouraging. Borrowing was £14.3bn, significantly above market expectations of £8.7bn. Yes, year to date borrowing is still £1.9bn lower than the OBR Nov forecast, but that gap was £8.9bn last month so has closed a lot between Jan-Feb (see chart).

Disappointing government spending and borrowing numbers this morning – not helpful given conflict in the Middle East is likely to worsen the public finances. Other issue today is whether the data support the OBR’s benign forecasts. Thread to follow…

Big month for public finances as ONS publish the data for January. With a record surplus in January of £30.4bn and tax receipts performing well, it looks like the Spring Forecast is set to be non event. Short thread to follow...

Quick word on this morning's public finances data for the UK which were pretty much in line with expectations. Borrowing in December was £11.6bn, slightly lower than market expectations of £13.4bn. Year to date, borrowing is £140.4bn, which looks broadly consistent with the OBR's Nov forecast.