Very glad to have had the chance to join Rana Abtar and Asharq News's #WashingtonReport to discuss the latest around the #IranWar - very much worth your time to listen to our conversation 👇
now.asharq.com/videos/news/...
www.axios.com/2026/03/19/i...
Pleased to be able to offer my thoughts to @axios.com @becfalconer.bsky.social about what the attacks on critical energy infrastructure by Iran and Israel mean and how they affect the war calculus of the parties - take a look👇
youtu.be/ANwkBJ4nzGc
I was glad to join @aljazeeraa.bsky.social to discuss the latest around the war w/Iran - starting around 7:15 👇
apnews.com/article/iran...
The BLUF is that expertise, staffing decisions, personnel decisions made hastily, and expertise ignored or not brought into the room has real consequences, especially at the nosebleed stakes of high level diplomacy. This war with Iran is one such example of that.
22/x
As I said two wks ago, the parties to this war are now locked in a cycle of escalation & counter that will be hard to break because, war is (as I was taught a long time ago by @eliotacohen.bsky.social) politics by other means. I fear what's to come.
21/x
The ultimate outcome of this war is truly anyone's guess - its unprecedented and anyone who believes that they can predict with absolute certainty its outcome is wrong.
20/x
Given that the likelihood of complete success on either of these missions is so hard to achieve, they risk turning this war further towards a blunder for the U.S., should they be greenlit and fail.
19/x
It would also bring the kind of casualties (and coverage of those casualties) that would generate a potentially intense wave of domestic political backlash inside the U.S. which the Administration certainly wants to avoid.
18/x
Either Kharg or this would cross rubicons that the U.S. has heretofore avoided by definitively make this another Middle East land war in which the U.S. finds itself entangled (so far I am not aware that any U.S. ground forces will take part in the Lebanon ground op).
17/x
I'm sure there are ways to get these forces into the country and get them out that i'm not aware of, and the planners and operators at @uscentcom.bsky.social and in U.S. special operations are second to none at making these kinds of things seem possible.
16/x
Are they coming overland from a base in a regional country? I cannot imagine, even after everything that's happened in this war to date, any regional partner allowing U.S. forces to base from their territory (or overfly their airspace) for this kind of op.
15/x
Then there's the how of where these forces launch from. Are they coming off helicopters from ships in the Gulf? That would mean traversing the Strait and leaving them vulnerable to missiles, mines, and drones.
14/x
Without perfect information, this kind of certainty will be hard to come by. And Iran will secure and relocate any HEU these forces don't move on immediately. So, what happens if the U.S. forces miss a significant stockpile? Are U.S. forces coming back for more raids?
13/x
And then there's the question of whether the U.S. and Israel can account for all of the HEU with the kind of certainty and precise intelligence that would allow simultaneous raids to get it all out.
12/x
Finding the uranium and excavating it from sites that were bombed in 2025 will take time. That means time exposed. Constant air cover won't keep Iranian forces from throwing everything they have at this.
11/x
That ensures that any U.S. force that attempts to enter them will face a sustained firefight to get in, while executing the recovery mission, and to get out. Even w/air dominance, the ground fight will be so intense there will be significant casualties.
10/x
The number of challenges that come with this are, frankly, massive. These sites - many located in and around Tehran (including those that were struck by U.S. and Israeli forces in June 2025) - will be amongst the most heavily guarded targets remaining inside Iran.
9/x
Besides the Kharg Island decision point, the Times identifies the tension and internal debate within the Administration about what it would take to remove Iran's highly enriched uranium. If your eyes water thinking about the Kharg Island scenario, this will be worse.
8/x
The attacks on the port of Fujairah in the UAE - one of their principal export pts - which has for the moment rendered it inoperable for oil exports - is another example of the way the Iranians hope to use their remaining military advantages to drive favorable outcomes.
7/x
Despite claims to the contrary, the Iranian military has not been rendered combat ineffective. It enjoys the strategic benefit of geography and missile and drone capabilities that are easy to move around and near impossible to completely take off the battlefield.
6/x
Even in a degraded state, Iran's military training and doctrine suggest that this is not only possible but likely. Look no further than the attacks on Abqaiq's oil fields in 2019 for evidence that Iran can execute complex attacks that cause precise, major damage.
5/x
However, it must be said that any lasting damage to Kharg's infrastructure would be a significant dent to Iran's long term ability to export oil. That will mean the attacks will have to be precise and targeted.
4/x
What's more, U.S. forces would be stuck on an island that's roughly the 1/3 the size of Manhattan. That makes them vulnerable to explosive drones and missile attacks. That's a recipe for significant U.S. casualties.
t.co/q13rTJhIhX
3/x
Such a landing would be contested. What U.S. and Israeli air power has accomplished is impressive in terms of establishing complete freedom to conduct air sorties without fear of shootdown. Land and naval forces enjoy no such freedom of movement.
2/x
The situation is reaching ever further into the ladder of escalation. The idea that the U.S. is now seriously entertaining boots on the ground on Kharg Island - one of Iran's most impt pieces of oil kit (handles 90% of exports) - is eye watering.
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/u...
1/x Vital reporting from David Sanger @julianbarnes.bsky.social Eric Schmitt @tylerpager.bsky.social Ronen Bergman @nytimes.com
Let’s dive into a few key issues this article raises around what may happen next with the #Iran #Israel #US war.
This is a wild statistic when you consider the current operational state of the Oil industry in the region.
Looking forward to this webinar from team @penn-us-china.bsky.social
As I have discussed repeatedly in the last few days, the risks to maritime operations - for tankers & mil traffic - from Iranian anti access and area denial capabilities is serious & tangible, even as the U.S. has seriously degraded certain parts of Iran’s military in the first 12 days of the war.
