Breaking down the budget baseline: what it means for the TCJA extension debate Assumptions could put trillions of dollars of policy changes on the table, or not

This morning, @espatel.bsky.social’s @briefingbook.bsky.social debut walks through budget process details and how they might matter for upcoming TCJA fights www.briefingbook.info/p/breaking-d...

Breaking down the budget baseline: what it means for the TCJA extension debate Assumptions could put trillions of dollars of policy changes on the table, or not

Curious about how a seemingly innocuous budgetary accounting choice can seem to make $5 trillion disappear? I break down the budget baseline and what is means for framing the upcoming debate about whether to extend the TCJA here www.briefingbook.info/p/breaking-d...

Make it count: Measuring our housing supply shortage

When I talk about housing with non-experts, I have to emphasize that the shortage is larger and more pervasive than they think. @espatel.bsky.social, Aastha Rajan, and I examine housing shortage estimates and offer an update based on our preferred methodology: 4.9 million units in 2023. #Econsky

Even if today's tariff threats are just a negotiating tactic, firms have to put some weight on them coming to pass once Trump is president. So, economic effects start right away (as have effects of his other tariff threats). Expect supply chain disruptions & negative effects of more uncertainty.

From the very sharp David Mericle at GS Research, here's the impact of a 1 ppt tariff rate increase on core PCE, by channel. What's notable is the production cost impact is larger than the direct consumer cost. There are a lot of tariff fans in denial abt this cost thru intermediate imports.

Transcript: Would Trump’s tariffs really be that bad? Soumaya Keynes talks to economist Kimberly Clausing

For those who prefer reading, my recent conversation with @soumayakeynes.bsky.social has a transcript.

We tackle all the common arguments about why Trump's tariffs won't be all that bad...

But they would be.

www.ft.com/content/48f5... via @financialtimes.com

Calling all CEA alums! Launching a starter pack. Not sure of everyone’s handles; raise your hand if you want in! 🤚 📈📉#econsky go.bsky.app/4oFf9kT