I'll be going on the NAAIM Confidential podcast in about 40 minutes to discuss a model I built based on the NAAIM Survey, as well as the recent "Scranton Party" Market Rally. Join me here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kzx9... @NAAIM_Official
$SPX and $NDX have both gone from a 100-day low to a 200-day closing high in 11 days. $SPX has never done it that fast before. (12 days 10/31/2014 was the closest). $NDX did it once (1/31/1985). So...wow.
A Historical Look At $SPX on Tax Day: quantifiableedges.com/a-historical... $SPY $QUANT $STUDY #seasonality
Marsten Parker gave a presentation to the Australian Technical Analysts Association a couple of days ago showing how Claude Code can be used in conjunction with Realtest. Exciting possibilities for research! www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJHz...
A 2nd impressive day for the indices $SPX $COMP $NDX, but like yesterday, breadth is only moderately strong. At this point NYSE Up Issues % is 72% and the Up Volume % is just 61%.
5yr bond rates closed Feb at the lowest level since Oct of 2024. They are now at the highest level since July of 2025. When rates move that quickly, it makes for a tough market environment.
Massive $VIX option trades occurred at 10:11am this morning 100k May 47.5 strike calls and 100k Aug 55 strikes. Most likely a spread trade. For perspective, there was less than 13k Aug 55s open interest before trade went off. Someone making big volatility bets.
$SPX and $NDX just slightly above their 200-day moving averages. $NASDAQ Composite is just below it.
$VIX reached 28.57 earlier - a little below October high of 28.99. Still no 29+ since April tariff tantrum.
While $SPX / $SPY closed down 5 of 6 days heading into today, it never closed in the bottom third of its intraday range. Always some optimism into the close. That may change today. Not looking strong so far...
Tomorrow is a $FED Day. Historically, Fed Days have shown a bullish edge, but not when $SPX makes a new high the day before. From a couple years back... quantifiableedges.com/why-a-new-hi... $SPY
Jan $VIX futures / options expiring Wed morning. Action could be interesting there over the next 24hrs.
A down close today would mean a 5-day $SPX low close ahead of a Fed Day. This post from a while back shows why that has been a much better setup than a 5-day high close: quantifiableedges.com/action-mon-t... More Fed studies here: quantifiableedges.com/category/fed... $SPY $FED
Final reminder that the Quantifiable Edges Black Friday -> Cyber Monday sale ends in a few hours. Last chance to save until next Thanksgiving! quantifiableedges.com/subscribers/...
The Quantifiable Edges 2025 Black Friday sale was extended through Monday. Save on subscriptions and courses at the only sale of the year: quantifiableedges.com/subscribers/...
$SPX trying hard to close over 6840.20 and finish the month positive. Let's see...
Quantifiable Edges Black Friday sale is live: quantifiableedges.com/subscribers/... It's the only sale we've had since last Black Friday...so don't miss out!
If Mon & Tues close higher does that kill the Wed-Fri Thanksgiving bullish edge? Nope. I'll be discussing this study and more in tonight's letter. Also...Black Friday sale coming later this week so it might be a good time to take a free trial: quantifiableedges.com/subscribers/... $SPY $SPX
Yesterday I posted Thanksgiving week stats.Wed-Fri both have bullish tendencies. This is NOT a secret. In fact, it is an edge that is often front-run on Tuesday afternoon...I say this because 9 of last 10 Thanksgiving-week Tuesdays saw $SPY close in the top 1/2 of its intraday range. $SPX $STUDY
An updated look at Thanksgiving week stats: quantifiableedges.com/an-updated-l... $SPX $SPY $STUDY
Previous research of mine has shown 1) Friday is the least likely day of the week to see a bounce from an intermediate-term low, BUT 2) If $SPX does bounce, Friday is the most likely day to see short-term follow-through. $SPY
If the market closed right now, the Quantifiable Edges Capitulative Breadth Indicator (CBI) would finish at 7. Perking up, but not yet at the 10+ level I look for as a strong indication of a bounce. Lots of CBI research here: quantifiableedges.com/category/cbi/ $SPX $SPY #CBI
Looking forward to joining Simon on the Algo Advantage podcast www.algoadvantage.io/podcast/ in the next week or so! Let @algo_advantage know if there is anything you want to hear us talk about.
Despite spike in $VIX the Nov-Dec futures are still slightly in contango. And rest of term structure looks orderly. Selloff not creating panic yet.
$NYSE volume is very light today. That is normal on days the stock market is open an the bond market is closed (Veteran's Day, Columbus Day). Don't make the mistake of reading into the low volume and thinking it is an indication of something more.
This is the 3rd day in a row that we are seeing $VIX and $VX futures rise along with $SPX. Unusual action.
A bunch of Fed Day studies to help you prep for tomorrow... quantifiableedges.com/category/fed...
Since the 9/11/2001 attacks and tragedy, September 11th has been a very strong day for the market. See study below, which will be included in tonight's subscriber letter. $SPX $SPY
The Reversal Tendency of Labor Day Week: quantifiableedges.com/the-reversal... $SPX $SPY $QUANT $STUDY #seasonality
