After a year marked by numerous national elections across the EU, POLITICO Poll of Polls continues to track voting intention trends for the upcoming national elections and combines them into an EU-wide seat tracker.
🗳️ The full report is available exclusively to POLITICO Pro Analysis subscribers
6/6
🤝 The scenario analysis predicts a clear majority for the longstanding “grand coalition plus” formed by EPP, S&D, and RE. So the center holds, but the right-wing surge continues. The sometimes discussed alliance of EPP, ECR, and RE would again fall short of a majority based on our seat estimate.
5/
✨Our exclusive analysis, with polling trends from all 27 EU countries, assigns seats of new unaffiliated parties, resulting in a comprehensive seat estimate.
The full breakdown of our scenario analysis:
- EPP: 175 seats
- S&D: 145
- ECR: 91
- ID: 91
- RE: 87
- Greens: 47
- Left: 33
- NI: 51
4/
📈 With the Dutch election results in, the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group surges in the seat tracker, catching up with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) at 91 seats. A noteworthy shift that leaves Renew Europe (RE) statistically tied with these two groups for 3rd place.
3/
Kudos to @ivobantel.bsky.social and Rodrigo Gutierrez who crunched and visualized the @pollofpolls.bsky.social data.
🏛️ The center-right European People’s Party (EPP) continues to lead with 175 seats, maintaining its edge over the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group at 145 seats.
2/
📊 New polling analysis by the POLITICO Research & Analysis Division for the 2024 European Parliament election shows significant shifts in the EU's political landscape.
We published our new EP election report with 6 months to go until the European Parliament election.
🚀Here are my main takeaways:
POLITICO Poll of Polls — European Parliament elections polls, trends and election news
www.politico.eu/europe-poll-...
Who's ahead in the polls in Germany?
Our current poll of polls:
CDU/CSU: 30% (+6)
AfD: 22% (+11)
SPD: 15% (-11)
Greens: 14% (-1)
FDP: 5% (-6)
Left: 4% (-1)
+/- vs. 2021 result
Who's ahead in the polls in the United Kingdom?
Our current poll of polls:
Lab: 43% (+11)
Con: 25% (-18)
Lib Dems: 11% (=)
Reform: 8% (+6)
Greens: 6% (+3)
SNP: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 2019 result
Who's ahead in the polls in Romania?
Our current poll of polls:
PSD: 30% (+1)
AUR: 19% (+10)
PNL: 19% (-6)
USR: 11%
SOS: 5%
UDMR: 4% (-1)
+/- vs. 2020 result
Who's ahead in the polls in the Czech Republic?
Our current poll of polls:
ANO: 33% (+6)
ODS: 13%
SPD: 11% (+2)
Piráti: 10%
STAN: 6%
TOP 09: 5%
+/- vs. 2021 result
Who's ahead in the polls in Germany?
Our current poll of polls:
CDU/CSU: 30% (+6)
AfD: 21% (+11)
SPD: 16% (-10)
Greens: 14% (-1)
FDP: 6% (-6)
Left: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 2021 result
Who will be the most powerful person in Europe in 2024?
At 9 p.m. CET, we reveal who topped our #POLITICO28 ranking of the Continent’s most influential faces for the year ahead.
Watch it live here (and see the names we've unveiled so far) 👉 politico.eu/politico28
Just an exit poll? The anti-Islam, euroskeptic radical Geert Wilders is projected to be the shock winner of the Dutch election.
www.politico.eu/article/far-...
Election day is here in the Netherlands. Polls suggest a nail-biting-close race.
Who's ahead in the polls in the Netherlands?
Our current poll of polls:
VVD: 18% (-4)
PVV: 16% (+6)
PvdA–GL: 16%
NSC: 15%
D66: 6% (-9)
BBB: 4% (+3)
+/- vs. 2021 result
On www.politico.eu/europe-poll-... you can find the latest polling trends for the upcoming Netherlands election.
NEW POLL OF POLLs: Who's ahead in the polls in the Netherlands?
Our current poll of polls:
VVD: 18% (-4)
NSC: 16%
PvdA–GL: 15%
PVV: 15% (+4)
D66: 5% (-10)
BBB: 5% (+4)
+/- vs. 2021 result
The Netherlands goes to the polls on November 22 to elect a new parliament. Here’s the latest polling data from POLITICO Poll of Polls. www.politico.eu/europe-poll-...
Who's ahead in the polls in the United Kingdom?
Our current poll of polls:
Lab: 46% (+14)
Con: 25% (-19)
Lib Dems: 11% (-1)
Reform: 7% (+5)
Greens: 6% (+3)
SNP: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 2019 result
Slovakia’s new leader, Robert Fico, has named his top team.
It features some controversial characters.
Who's ahead in the polls in Germany?
Our current poll of polls:
CDU/CSU: 30% (+6)
AfD: 21% (+11)
SPD: 16% (-10)
Greens: 14% (-1)
FDP: 5% (-6)
Left: 4% (-1)
+/- vs. 2021 result
Who's ahead in the polls in Portugal?
Our current poll of polls:
PSD: 25% (-3)
PS: 25% (-16)
CH: 15% (+7)
BE: 8% (+4)
IL: 7% (+2)
PCP-PEV: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 2022 result
Who's ahead in the polls in the Netherlands?
Our current poll of polls:
NSC: 18%
VVD: 18% (-4)
PvdA–GL: 16%
PVV: 12% (+2)
BBB: 6% (+5)
D66: 5% (-10)
+/- vs. 2021 result
Who's ahead in the polls in Germany?
Our current poll of polls:
CDU/CSU: 30% (+6)
AfD: 21% (+11)
SPD: 16% (-10)
Greens: 14% (-1)
FDP: 5% (-6)
Left: 4% (-1)
+/- vs. 2021 result
Who's ahead in the polls in the Netherlands?
Our current poll of polls:
NSC: 19%
VVD: 18% (-4)
PvdA–GL: 16%
PVV: 13% (+2)
BBB: 6% (+5)
D66: 5% (-10)
+/- vs. 2021 result
Who's ahead in the polls in Germany?
Our current poll of polls:
CDU/CSU: 30% (+6)
AfD: 21% (+11)
SPD: 16% (-10)
Greens: 14% (-1)
FDP: 5% (-6)
Left: 4% (-1)
+/- vs. 2021 result
Who's ahead in the polls in the United Kingdom?
Our current poll of polls:
Lab: 46% (+13)
Con: 25% (-18)
Lib Dems: 10% (-1)
Reform: 8% (+6)
Greens: 6% (+3)
SNP: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 2019 result
Who's ahead in the polls in Portugal?
Our current poll of polls:
PSD: 24% (-3)
PS: 24% (-17)
CH: 13% (+6)
BE: 8% (+3)
IL: 7% (+2)
PCP-PEV: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 2022 result
