000WTNT33 KNHC 262055TCPAT3 BULLETINHurricane Melissa Advisory Number 22NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025500 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...HURRICANE MELISSA RESUMES INTENSIFYING......LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO BEGIN TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...16.4N 77.2WABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICAABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cubanprovinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. Thegovernment of Cuba has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for theCuban province of Las Tunas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Jamaica* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, andHolguin. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with theDominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with theDominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince* Cuban province of Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence oftropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outsidepreparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect lifeand property should be complete. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, thesoutheastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Additionalwatches and warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow. For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 77.2 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from thecenter and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles(335 km). The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical CycloneDiscussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, withhurricane conditions expected to begin by Monday. Tropical stormconditions are expected to begin in Eastern Cuba by Tuesdayafternoon, with Hurricane conditions expected to begin in thehurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditionsare ongoing in the warning area in Haiti. The potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti have diminished fortoday, but there is still a possibility of hurricane conditionsoccurring there on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inchesto portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches forsouthern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with local storm total maximaof 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerouslandslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, withlocal amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesdayresulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerouslandslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches isexpected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flashflooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated withMelissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm TotalRainfall Graphic, available athurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the southcoast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak stormsurge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near andto the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. Thisstorm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeastcoast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heightscould reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to theeast of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surgewill be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions ofHispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during thenext several days, and In the Bahamas and Bermuda later this week.These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and ripcurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local weatheroffice. NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Melissa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
Hurricane Melissa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Atlantic Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 22
...HURRICANE MELISSA RESUMES INTENSIFYING... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY T...
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