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Posts by Jonathan Todd

TRUMP: WILL REMEMBER COMPANIES THAT DON'T SEEK TARIFF REFUNDS

TRUMP: BRILLIANT IF AMAZON, APPLE DON'T SEEK TARIFF REFUNDS

Glad we can all just openly admit its pay-for-play, good to have that cleared up

1 hour ago 18 5 0 2
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Nasdaq Composite RSI is bananas

3 days ago 1 0 0 0
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Okay CTA. This is a good sign.

1 week ago 24363 4540 90 125

saddened to note that my inbox does not contain *any* sell-side notes modelling the economic impact of a nuclear strike on London.

pull yer socks up, lads

6 days ago 93 19 12 3
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A Weakened IRS Has Significant Consequences

DOGE turbocharged the deficit, achieving no savings. The IRS reductions from funding and layoffs have likely resulted in about $861 bn in decreased revenue. The layoffs from actions like DOGE alone have likely resulted in $597.8 bn in decreased revenue over the 2026-2035.

6 days ago 559 285 18 11

TFW you think you’re in on the con but it turns out you’re actually the bag holder.

1 week ago 21 5 3 0
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Treasury Announces President Donald J. Trump’s Signature to Appear on Future U.S. Paper Currency WASHINGTON – In honor of the 250th anniversary of the United States of America, President Donald J. Trump’s signature will appear on future U.S. paper currency along with the Secretary of the Treasury...

It was normal in the 19th century for bank presidents to sign their own dollar notes. Also it's weird anyway that *anyone* in the Treasury signs the notes, which sit on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. But also let us consider that jfc I just can't anymore home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

3 weeks ago 204 17 9 3

You need best player in your sport on a team that contends.

Ohtani might be Brady on the Patriots. I don’t know!

But I’ll buy that the sport is hurting when ratings and attendance start tanking. Both are up.

We’ve endured “here’s why baseball is about to die” stories every spring for 100 years.

3 weeks ago 76 8 0 0
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Incredible scene: Travelers wait on hours-long security line at George Bush International Airport in Houston while Lee Greenwood’s “God Bless the USA” blasts through the speakers.

(video shared directly with me)

4 weeks ago 4622 1328 440 674

Given the type of poster in the comments section of Polymarket bets, I will be happy to avoid ever going here

1 month ago 3 0 0 0
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Feb Core PPI 3m annualized pace (~7.8%) highest since May-22

1 month ago 2 2 0 0
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A first-time candidate who came onto the scene as a young TikTok’er getting over 25% in a crowded primary against other elected officials seems like an objectively strong electoral performance, whatever your thoughts on the candidate might be. She did something right with voters:

1 month ago 5273 609 26 102
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January Core PCE annualized paces... Fresh out the frying pan into the fire

1 month ago 5 2 0 0

The 8-Mar timestamp is helpful for assessing his "short-term thinking and predicting"

1 month ago 27 0 0 0
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Apparently commodity traders are "imbeciles" because they were worried about what's actually now happening in the Strait of Hormuz

1 month ago 166 25 23 25

Good morning to all my F1 heads

*CHINA'S BYD EXPLORES ENTRY INTO F1, OTHER AUTO RACING SERIES

1 month ago 200 12 13 16

Used to see JN walking around Lincoln Park wearing a weight vest and holding dumbbells for his morning exercise.

That's it, that's all I got.

1 month ago 3 0 0 0
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Spain has been terrible.

Also, so many Americans are moving to Madrid that a local park has been dubbed Plaza USA
www.wsj.com/us-news/amer...

1 month ago 12 7 0 0

A GIDP machine?

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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“.. This is simply attempted corporate murder,” Ball wrote. “I could not possibly recommend investing in American AI to any investor; I could not possibly recommend starting an AI company in the United States.”

@politico.com #Anthropic
www.politico.com/news/2026/02...

1 month ago 894 347 38 37

Reed and Ted just crippled a competitor and will be able to buy some assets cheap later on, $NFLX

1 month ago 50 7 5 1

Interesting... my working assumption was things were better after the 2023 strike but maybe not?

1 month ago 0 0 1 0
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fwiw... February saw:

- Fourth-straight month of value outperformance to growth

- Third-straight month of global outperformance to US (and accelerating)

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

Please, please note: I'm not an equity analyst.

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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This opens up a pretty clear lane in the $NFLX investment thesis - viewers and writing/production talent leave HBO for Netflix

$PSKY may have won the battle, but far from clear that means they'll be the longer-term winner...

1 month ago 3 0 3 0
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It’s heartening to see a company demonstrate principles — and stick by them in the face of threats.

www.anthropic.com/news/stateme...

1 month ago 716 186 30 12

Also the non-zero chance that Kalshi renegs on the bet over some contract technicalities

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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Love this

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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He’s essentially suggesting the Fed self-censor its research to avoid topics the White House considers politically sensitive. Does that preserve the independence or undermine it? The White House hasn’t had a problem touting tariff research from other Fed economists when it approves of the findings.

1 month ago 41 5 1 2
The political effects of X's feed algorithm
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10098-2
Received: 16 December 2024
Accepted: 4 January 2026
Published online: 18 February 2026
Open access
• Check for updates
Germain Gauthier,5, Roland Hodler?5, Philine Widmer35 & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya3,4,5 m
Feed algorithms are widely suspected to influence political attitudes. However, previous evidence from switching off the algorithm on Meta platforms found no political effects'. Here we present results from a 2023 field experiment on Elon Musk's platform X shedding light on this puzzle. We assigned active US-based users randomly to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed for 7 weeks, measuring political attitudes and online behaviour. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed increased engagement and shifted political opinion towards more conservative positions, particularly regarding policy priorities, perceptions of criminal investigations into Donald Trump and views on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, switching from the algorithmic to the chronological feed had no comparable effects.
Neither switching the algorithm on nor switching it off significantly affected affective polarization or self-reported partisanship. To investigate the mechanism, we analysed users' feed content and behaviour. We found that the algorithm promotes conservative content and demotes posts by traditional media. Exposure to algorithmic content leads users to follow conservative political activist accounts, which they continue to follow even after switching off the algorithm, helping explain the asymmetry in effects. These results suggest that initial exposure to X's algorithm has persistent effects on users' current political attitudes and account-following behaviour, even in the absence of a detectable effect on partisanship.

The political effects of X's feed algorithm https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10098-2 Received: 16 December 2024 Accepted: 4 January 2026 Published online: 18 February 2026 Open access • Check for updates Germain Gauthier,5, Roland Hodler?5, Philine Widmer35 & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya3,4,5 m Feed algorithms are widely suspected to influence political attitudes. However, previous evidence from switching off the algorithm on Meta platforms found no political effects'. Here we present results from a 2023 field experiment on Elon Musk's platform X shedding light on this puzzle. We assigned active US-based users randomly to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed for 7 weeks, measuring political attitudes and online behaviour. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed increased engagement and shifted political opinion towards more conservative positions, particularly regarding policy priorities, perceptions of criminal investigations into Donald Trump and views on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, switching from the algorithmic to the chronological feed had no comparable effects. Neither switching the algorithm on nor switching it off significantly affected affective polarization or self-reported partisanship. To investigate the mechanism, we analysed users' feed content and behaviour. We found that the algorithm promotes conservative content and demotes posts by traditional media. Exposure to algorithmic content leads users to follow conservative political activist accounts, which they continue to follow even after switching off the algorithm, helping explain the asymmetry in effects. These results suggest that initial exposure to X's algorithm has persistent effects on users' current political attitudes and account-following behaviour, even in the absence of a detectable effect on partisanship.

A new paper shows that less than 2 months of exposure to Twitter’s algorithmic feed significantly shifts people’s political views to the right.

Moving from chronological feed to the algorithmic feed also increases engagement.

This is one of the most concerning papers I’ve read in awhile.

2 months ago 6499 3246 159 411