Both #Musk and #Trump are Stalinists. Neither believe in free speech, a free market, or a free Ukraine.

Welp. That probably could've gone better.

Source for ruling: thehill.com/regulation/c...

See link below for most recent Lane Picker COPS update
and pinned post on why we're tracking these as part of Phase 2 spoiling counters:

bsky.app/profile/info...

Ruling reversing OPM firing of probationary workers in key case.

"(OPM) does not have any authority whatsoever, under any statute in the history of the universe, to hire and fire employees within another agency...The agencies could thumb their nose at OPM if they wanted to."

#AltGov

Rational Security: The “Leftover Chicken Kyiv” Edition YouTube video by Lawfare

Anastasiia Lapatina at 1:07:18 with the motto for 2025: "Why can't they [Trump admin] do this with the Russians? I would so much prefer them to treat the bad guys badly and to treat difficult guys [illegal immigrants] lawfully."

youtu.be/lC4zZRi55kE?...

1 case dismissed on the merits
2 cases dimissed for standing or jurisdiction
(not all case statuses are listed so sum of case statuses != sum of cases) 6/6

12 temporary restraining orders (TRO) granted, halting Presidential actions until PI can be ruled on
4 TRO’s denied and the case continues
12 preliminary injunctions (PI) granted, halting Presidential action until the case is concluded
1 PI denied, and the case continues 5/6

83 current legal actions tracked representing 90 original cases
47 cases proceeding with no ruling yet
1 consent decree managing a Presidential action
1 administrative stay granted halting Presidential action until TRO or PI can be ruled on 4/6

Actions subject to a temporary restraining orders (drk green) are halted for a few days, while preliminary injunctions (lt green) are halted until the trial concludes. Actions still in effect (bright red) will most likely require backfill local provision of services or support. 3/6

The COPS aligns with Phase 2 Spoiling Counters of the phase-based forecast scenario (see pinned post), where already existing well-funded organizations use lawsuits to slow #Presidential overreach while everyone else uses a Fabian strategy to build capacity. 2/6

This visual provides a common operating picture (COPS) of all current legal actions against #Trump actions. The purpose is to help people understand what is being countered and where they can help or what “lane” they can pick. 1/6

Low-key nostalgic for that Biden administration. Sure, he may very well have been senile, but I don't recall the entire Federal government getting paralyzed over 5-bullet emails....

Dictator's Dilemma:
infomullet.com/2020/03/31/d...

CLD of Kilcullen's Accidental Guerilla Theory:
youtu.be/j06z0LJmXWM 31/31

Theory of an Emerging-State Actor: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) Case † This paper proposes a new theory of non-state actors who engage in irregular warfare to seize territory and govern openly, called emerging-state actors. Emerging-state actors arise in periods of irreg...

𝑨𝒅𝒅𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝑺𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒔:
Emerging State Actor Hypothesis: www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/6/...

Root Causes of Radicalization: incose.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

Contingencies of Violent Radicalization:
www.mdpi.com/2079-8954/9/... 30/31

Worse, all the time they spend degrading their capabilities is time *not* spent on organizing local resources to backstop the problems and also accumulate the frictions. This planning forecast shows where they can show up and prepare, and when/where they can join in for maximum effectiveness. 29/31

Most people now, TBH, are accumulating stressors that degrade their ability to sustain and don’t know what to do. Watch for how frequently people report "getting exhausted" or "fatigued" and noping out. 28/31

KEY TAKEAWAY ACROSS ALL FIVE PHASES: Individuals must plan and organizing to sustain for the long term and accelerate the accumulation of transactional frictions to reach that threshold tipping point at Phase 4. 27/31

Notable exceptions are in areas of absolutely core Presidential unitary power (e.g. foreign relations, military actions, Federal law enforcement or where Congress regrettably has ceded authority etc.) 26/31

𝑷𝒉𝒂𝒔𝒆 5: 𝑭𝒊𝒙 & 𝑯𝒐𝒍𝒅. When Trump loses or doesn’t think he’s popular he shifts between rages and listlessness. Going forward from the crisis with a few exceptions, the Trump administration is one of a list of 'things not achieved' quickly becoming internal blaming and fingerpointing. 25/31

The key goal of mass mobilization is to both counter the immediate crisis with civil actions and deter escalation by the sheer size of response. Strategy Source: www.amazon.com/Civil-Resist... 24/31

If the crisis phase occurs, this is when Chenoweth’s civil resistance is employed. Groups that have been preparing for civil resistance since the beginning can now join in. People who haven’t been preparing but just want to “show up and do something” will also probably join in here. 23/31

In 2020 these were the BLM protests. During this crisis, Trump may take a severe action to impose some form of Federal control over all levels. Similar to his attempt to invoke Insurrection Act, in JUN 20 but was rebuffed DoD leadership which backed him off. Or it may look different. 22/31

𝑪𝑹𝑰𝑺𝑰𝑺 (𝒀𝒆𝒂𝒓 3-4) When Trumps frustration at a stalled agenda mounts, in his third staff rotation, and with additive complexity closing in, a domestic crisis will occur. This will be emergent, not forecast in advance, or plan intentionally, but it will be obvious when it happens. 21/31

InfoMullet: Principles of Unrestricted Warfare TLDRUpFront: As China continues to exert pressure on multiple fronts its important to understand a tenet of their strategic doctrine. "Unrestricted Warfare" advances a state-actor strategy of asymmetr

Strategy Source: infomullet.com/2020/07/29/u... 20/31

Trying to move forward programs, navigate scandals, maintain lawsuits, adjust to new personnel paralyzes forward momentum on the agenda. New groups that have prepared for this can begin stepping up and opening new axises of countering, relieving the larger groups from carrying all the weight. 19/31

𝑷𝒉𝒂𝒔𝒆 4: 𝑰𝒏𝒘𝒂𝒓𝒅 𝑨𝒅𝒅𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝑪𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆𝒙𝒊𝒕𝒚. (𝒀𝒆𝒂𝒓 2-3) Often after a disappointing midterm that flips House or Senate, combining internal and external transactional frictions a threshold gets tripped and additive complexity, which the WH benefitted from in the beginning, gets flipped against it. 18/31

New groups should continue building and organizing capability, delivering local services. It’s frustrating to keep preparing, but your time is coming. Strategy Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wedge_s... 17/31

Especially on novel issues of untested areas, which many will be with the Trump approach of expansive and reinterpreted Federal authority, there may have to be several district rulings before SCOTUS finds it ripe.16/31

It can take years for an injuncted order in Jan-Feb of a new administration to work through State and Federal district, appeal courts -with a few accelerating to SCOTUS. 15/31