This and most days!

Listen to @mtsavill.bsky.social discuss the Iran ceasefire on BBC Radio 5 Live with Nicky Campbell.

Full episode available here: https://bbc.in/41hBuzA

Iran celebrates its own defeat as Trump seeks to  punish Nato allies in dream come true for Putin DONALD Trump is reportedly demanding Nato forces send warships to unlock the Strait of Hormuz and take on Iran within the next few days. Top European diplomats fear Trump is offering a major ultimatum to the alliance demanding that they fight alongside...

'If there is less confidence that the US would come to Europe's aid in the event of future war, then that does affect deterrence of Russia and indeed others.'

Watch @mtsavill.bsky.social interview with The Sun.

Thinking about the Iran bridge and Pasteur institute strikes. I have two half-formed thoughts. One is that the scope of permissible targets under the laws of war is much greater than ppl imagine, as well as being highly contested among legal scholars & lawyers. ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary...

When the Chief of the General Staff announced at the RUSI Land Warfare Conference that the Army would ‘triple its lethality’ I was sceptical this was measurable. Here, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds argue that it can and recommend how to do so.

Here's what Marine Expeditionary Units are designed to do The units are embarked on ships and include air and ground combat elements along with logistics and command structures.

Good explainer article on what the MEUs are and what they can (and probably cannot) do today from @taskandpurpose.com

Featuring quotes by @spettyjohn.bsky.social and me👇

taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics...

Iran War Delivers a Tough Lesson in Hard Power to the UK Aside from policy differences with the US, the UK's Armed Forces' size and capacity make difficult any large UK involvement in war with Iran.

'It is . . . unclear why the UK should divert scarce resources from Europe that would neither be decisive nor influence a mercurial US Administration that does not need them.' writes @mtsavill.bsky.social in the latest RUSI Commentary.

RUSI Experts Assess Escalation and Regional Risks in the Iran Conflict As the United States and Israel conduct major strikes against Iran, four RUSI experts provide their thoughts after the first few days of conflict.

Throughout the week we've sat down with some of our researchers to capture their insights as the conflict in Iran develops.

We have now distilled these conversations into a single video for you.

For excerpts from each interview see the below thread.
www.rusi.org/news-and-com...

How Much Of Iran’s Military Capabilities Have Been Destroyed? | RUSI Military Expert Analyses YouTube video by Times News

An attempt by me to summarise the impact of Israeli and US operations on Iran's capabilities, with thanks to
Times radio for having me on.
youtu.be/9NCBTxmY-8w?...

Conventional Prompt Strike in European Military Power This research paper explores the critical role of conventional prompt strike capabilities in enhancing European military power.

New research by Dr Sidharth Kaushal argues Europe must use conventional prompt strike to degrade Moscow’s missile defences or risk the credibility of Britain and France’s nuclear deterrents.

In this bonus episode of Global Security Briefing you can hear from Dr Neil Melvin, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, @mtsavill.bsky.social and Dr Jonathan Eyal on the prospects for peace, four years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Listen to the episode: https://bit.ly/4tTHfR3

Earlier today Dr Neil Melvin, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, @mtsavill.bsky.social & Dr Jonathan Eyal gathered at RUSI HQ to mark the 4 year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Watch the recording; https://bit.ly/3OLHDkp

Not a RUSI Member? Join today: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html

Comments from me based on my experience with security clearances (and working in vetting a lifetime ago!).

What are the takeaways from MSC for Germany, UK, Poland, and France?

@rikefranke.bsky.social, @mtsavill.bsky.social, @susmonika.bsky.social & yours truly:

European allies ‘frustrated’ by UK defense paralysis The U.K. rearmament efforts are hobbled by the country’s fiscal difficulties, which is angering the arms industry.

Given budgetary constraints in the UK and France, I expect more stories like this going forward.

www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Ukraine: Prospects for Peace, Four Years After Russia’s Invasion Join an expert panel as they reflect on the prospects for peace, four years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion, what are Ukraine's prospects for peace?

Join Maryna Vorotnyuk, Neil Melvin, @mtsavill.bsky.social and Jonathan Eyal on 24 February for an insightful discussion as we mark the anniversary.

Not a Member? Join today: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html

US-Iran relations: Is the US preparing to strike Iran again? Satellite images show a steady and significant build-up of US military forces in the region.

'they [the US] could go after the centres of military power, including Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and maybe the militias that are suppressing the protesters' @mtsavill.bsky.social quoted in the below BBC article.

US-Iran relations: Is the US preparing to strike Iran? Satellite images show a steady and significant build-up of US military forces in the region.

A few comments from me here. The headline is that the choice of targets and how much the US can strike are both growing, but the question is what can realistically be achieved, especially if President Trump wants both 'decisive' and 'short'. How brittle is the regime?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

A good list, and pleasing to see Jack Watling’s ‘Arms of the Future’ recommended.

Layered Ambiguity: US Cyber Capabilities in the Raid to Extract Maduro from Venezuela The US operation to remove Maduro succeeded despite fundamental ambiguity about what cyber delivered but that opacity has strategic consequences.

'Most governments do not disclose offensive cyber operations. Boasting about capabilities is not the usual game' writes @lmhurel.bsky.social in the latest RUSI Commentary.

A powerful story from @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social last night, adding details on the human impact of the Iranian regime's behaviour.

🎙️Tune in to the latest Talking Strategy episode, where we explore how Western nations are evolving their strategies - from historic Cold War approaches to today’s cutting-edge innovations in technology and defence: https://bit.ly/4pjXumN

Webinar: Venezuela’s Crisis: Regional Dynamics and Global Consequences Join us online for a briefing and Q&A, with a panel of RUSI experts discussing the evolving security implications of the US strikes on Venezuela.

🚨📅Join us this Friday for an in-depth webinar exploring the future of Venezuela. Our experts will analyse the regime’s trajectory and the pivotal role of external actors. Open to all RUSI members.

An important update on previous work, to highlight that the air superiority that underpins so much of Western military power (see recent highly successful operations!) is increasingly challenged.

Start your week by looking at this; given the initial statements from the US Administration, there must be some doubt as to whether there is even a plan for a transition to democracy, let alone how feasible it will be.

Reducing Global Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence To reduce reliance on nuclear weapons, states must narrow their nuclear doctrines, utilise non-nuclear deterrence alternatives and engage in risk reduction.

NEW RUSI Paper, ‘Reducing Global Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence’ by Lukasz Kulesa is out now! www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

🎄Merry Christmas from all of us at RUSI!

Detailed but important analysis, with lessons for NATO and integrated air and missile defence planners.

🎙️Gen. Robinson brings her military expertise to the Talking Strategy podcast, offering valuable insights that shape foreign policy and drive innovative strategic thinking.

🎧Listen here: https://bit.ly/4i6uUn3

#HIRING

We are seeking a Senior Research Fellow! The role will focus on Russian and Eurasian issues, delivering research projects and enhancing our profile in this critical area. Interested? Apply now or share with your network: https://bit.ly/3LOmeFJ