I just think if the government was to become this unpopular this quickly, they might as well have done it by increasing taxes on median+ earners.

Note how he doesn't just define himself against an enemy but personifies the enemy by naming Ken Griffin and how much he paid for his penthouse.

This is how to create definition about what you stand for.

The Erling Haaland of political own goals strikes again

Young men, bad data and moral panic Before we build another national conversation around what young men supposedly believe, it is worth asking whether the data underneath it is any good.

After YouGov retracted their poll on young people going to church more, I wrote about why polling young people, especially young men, has become increasingly challenging.

It's a growing problem, and the market research industry needs to respond.

chriscurtismk.substack.com/p/young-men-...

I actually don't hate this (sorry) but only if it means temporary exhibitions can stop being like £27 for four and a half rooms, but I'm, huh, not holding my breath

It really is the point. If a Conservative front bencher is allowed to make a discriminatory Islamophobic argument like this without sanction from his party - indeed with support from its leadership - that represents a major erosion of anti-prejudice norms and indeed of religious freedom norms.

I sometimes think one source of revenue untapped by the British government would be a tax on NIMBYs saying fucking stupid things.

Again, I point out that the landscape I grew up in was absolutely ravaged by the side effects of fossil fuel extraction so my sympathy for these people whining about how they might see a solar array is pretty limited

So I wrote a thing on this... nadinebh.substack.com/p/influencer...

"This explosion of ADHD influencer content, coinciding with long assessment waiting lists, means the community is suffering from being hyper visible while simultaneously being chronically misunderstood and dangerously unsupported."

Who actually were the Hero Voters? Labour won in 2024 because of economically insecure voters, not social conservatism.

Have been a bit frustrated by some of the conversation about Labour's voter coalition.

I've written about who the "Hero Voters" actually were, how we won them, and what we need to do to earn their support next time.

chriscurtismk.substack.com/p/who-actual...

Really fascinating and important research here

If you want to chat to us about a project, have us come and talk to your team, or you have nothing specific in mind and just fancy a coffee on us, get in touch via our website or drop me a message.

convergent-opinion.com

At Convergent's core are two people who think polling can do a lot more than it usually does — and want to help organisations, political, social, and otherwise, get the insight they need to make better decisions.

We supported Steve and Persuasion with experiment design, MRP modelling, and data collection. Convergent is built on the idea that understanding what moves people in the real world often takes more than standard polling alone.

So proud to have worked with @steveakehurst.bsky.social of @persuasionuk.bsky.social and @38degrees.bsky.social on this deep dive into Labour's progressive defectors. This is also the first public-facing work from Convergent, a new agency where I'm a co-founder.

Polling from More in Common shows that Greens and Reform win a higher share of voters who struggle to make ends meet, while Labour and the Conservatives win those who are most financially comfortable

Reform UK and the Greens are hoovering up financially insecure voters. My piece this week looks at the return of Britain's class politics (with a twist) www.economist.com/britain/2026...

This is not a reasoned political response. Labour has spent two years making all the voting groups who backed the Greens feel unwelcome and unheard, and now attacks them for daring to back someone else. They believe Labour isn’t listening and Starmer seems determined to prove them right

Sources close to Shabana Mahmood pointing out that the polls show her policies are popular with Green voters.

Sources close to Shabana Mahmood pointing out that the polls show her policies are popular with Green voters, continued.

You know, if the stakes of the next election were lower, Blue Labour doing a “actually, the policies are really popular…it’s just that the people who say they like it didn’t vote for us” would be incredibly funny.

Community meme: I CAN EXCUSE FASCISM. BUTI DRAW THE LINE AT MERCANTILISM.

The Supreme Court:

Most annoying internet tic is how nothing can ever just be bad, it always has to be proof that things are worse now than they’ve ever been before

It’s now quite hard to sustain that ex-mining, pro-Brexit, Labour-to-Reform swing seats (via levelling up) have been overlooked or forgotten by Westminster. They’ve been the axis of politics 15 years. Why it hasn’t worked is the question

Gorton is really going to test the idea that progressive voters will naturally come back to Labour to stop Reform, or else naturally figure out who is best placed to beat them.

Super messy information environment where even the most informed voter might not be able to figure it out.

Tables are up now. The number of respondents for the headline voting intention, once don't knows and won't votes are removed, is 51.

<Meaningful stare>

Breaking: Matt Goodwin says his internal polling has him up by 814%.

So how much do you think our defence spending should increase by?

It continues to be a bad failure that essentially there's a policy debate that is obvious to you if you read a business newspaper OR the gov dot uk website or the MI5 threat update OR a decent policy Substack is basically invisible on the BBC and in 90 per cent of Commons debates.

British education in a nutshell