SA has elected 🟥🟥🟥🟦🟦🟩 (as expected - Labor gains a senator off the Liberals)
Tasmania has elected 🟥🟥🟦🟦🟩🟨 (Lambie and the 2nd Liberal have fought off the 3rd Labor candidate)
ACT ⬜️🟥 (as expected - Pocock easily reelected)
NT 🟥🟦 (as expected)
I think it's gone unnoticed how many indies just barely missed out this time.
0.05% off Bradfield (?)
0.1% off Goldstein
0.3% off Bean
~1% off Forrest
~1% off Monash
1% off Fremantle
~1% off Grey
~2% off Fisher
2% off Flinders
2.5% off in Cowper
3% off Wannon
~3% off in Lyne
Calwell still unknown
Bring back the jury vote for the semis. The people simply cannot be trusted. #Eurovision
If either independent finishes above Labor, I imagine they'd be able to win the seat against the Liberals. I'd personally say I think Moore will finish as LIB v ALP, but it's really anyone's game.
Anyways, thank you for reading and another thread will be out soon!
24/24 🧵
Goodenough is interestingly running an open how-to-vote card, which could very well see Labor elected if he were not to finish in the top 2.
Labor is preferencing both independents above the Libs, while the Greens are preferencing Labor 2nd & Goodenough below the Libs.
23/24 🧵
Goodenough has run a strong election campaign here, but so have multiple other candidates - Including fellow independent Nathan Barton, backed by "Voices of Moore".
Labor, who were just 0.6% from winning last time, are running their candidate Tom French once again.
22/24 🧵
🔵⚪️ MOORE (WA)
Lastly, the seat of Moore, where a staggering 4-cornered contest has developed.
Incumbent MP Ian Goodenough lost Liberal preselection to former MP Vince Connelly last year, and has since quit the party, posing a serious threat to the Liberals.
21/24 🧵
Once again, this is one of those seats where the Liberals have faced serious problems in the past few months as Labor have recovered - I mean, at a state level, the Liberals their worst results here. I think Chaney is safe, but still one to keep track of.
20/24 🧵
⚪️ CURTIN (WA)
Onto Curtin! A safe liberal seat for most of its entire existence, Curtin voted for Kate Chaney in 2022, a "teal independent", along with a string of affluent upper class seats across the country.
19/24 🧵
She performed well in the state seat of Fremantle, but the federal seat is much bigger, taking in suburbs like Cockburn, which are probably less friendly to independents. Though, if she can overtake the Greens, it's quite possible she catches up to Labor on preferences.
18/24 🧵
Notably, Hulett has differentiated herself from other independent candidates this election - Notably, her platform is considerably to the left of "teal" independents - With policies like free TAFE, universal healthcare, opposing AUKUS, and even a ban on HTV cards.
17/24 🧵
🔴 FREMANTLE (WA)
Slightly south of the seat of Tangney is Fremantle, a Labor seat that is seeing a serious challenge from independent Kate Hulett, who was inches away from winning the state seat of Fremantle just 2 months ago.
16/24 🧵
Combine that with polls showing Labor may get a swing towards them in WA, and the "sophomore surge" for the Labor MP Sam Lim, I think it's safe to say that Labor must be feeling pretty good about their chances here now.
(image from pollbludger.net)
15/24 🧵
The Liberals were well placed to take this seat last year, but as Labor have surged in the polls, so have their chances in Tangney.
In fact, at the WA state election a month ago, the Liberals saw some of their smallest swings towards them in this seat.
14/24 🧵
🔴 TANGNEY (WA)
Back to a more "traditional contest", Tangney has generally been considered one of the closest seats this election.
Formerly a safe Liberal seat, Tangney fell to Labor in one of the biggest shocks of the 2022 election.
13/24 🧵
The main problem for the Greens though is that the Liberals are looking increasingly weak in WA, especially in Perth.
It's looking increasingly difficult for the Liberals to overtake Labor and push them into 3rd, which will be a necessity for a Greens win.
12/24 🧵
Adam Bandt recently named it as one of the Greens' most winnable seats this election, and for good reason.
If the final count were to finish between the Greens and Liberals, Greens candidate and local councillor Sophie Greer could very well pick up the seat.
11/24 🧵
🔴 PERTH (WA)
Anyways, lets move onto the seat of Perth!
Traditionally a marginal seat, Labor's margin expanded to 15% last election, seeing incumbent Patrick Gorman easily re-elected against the Libs. Rather, instead of the Libs, it's the Greens looking for a gain.
10/24 🧵
The problem for Davie's lies in 2 things;
1 - Labor are preferencing the Liberals ahead of her
2 - Her popularity is mainly in the seat's rural areas and not the suburbs, where most of the population resides. She can win if she overtakes the Liberals, but it'll be tough.
9/24 🧵
Another interesting factor here is the Nationals, who are running former WA Nationals leader Mia Davies.
She's established herself as a more centrist figure in the WA Nats, & she has a strong name recognition in Bullwinkel's rural areas, but not so much in the suburbs.
8/24 🧵
Although WA could very well swing to Labor again, the problem for Labor in Bullwinkel is that they don't have an incumbent MP (since the seat was, well, just created). This area swung particularly strongly to the Liberals at the state election as well.
7/24 🧵
🔴 BULLWINKEL (WA)
To the north is the newly created seat of Bullwinkel, which was notionally won by Labor by around 3% last election. It combines safe Labor areas in Perth's outer-east with safe Liberal areas in the Wheatbelt.
6/24 🧵
Labor saw an 8% swing here in 2022, but it was well below the average swing Labor saw in WA last election (almost 11%) - Likely because of Hastie's personal popularity.
A redistribution has cut the margin to just 1%, but I think Labor's realized too late they could win.
5/24 🧵
🔵 CANNING (WA)
Here's another formerly safe Liberal seat - Canning, currently held by Andrew Hastie, has entered the spotlight in the past few weeks, with polls showing Labor possibly making *gains* in WA.
4/24 🧵
This time, long time MP Nola Marino is retiring, and a new figure has entered the race - Sue Chapman, backed by local group "Voices for Forrest".
With the Liberals failing to regain in polls after their landslide loss in 2022, Chapman could be in with a shot.
3/24 🧵
🔵 FORREST (WA)
Starting off with Forrest today - located in WA's south west corner, covering areas like Bunbury, Busselton and Margaret River.
It's voted for the Libs since 1972, and has generally been safe until 2022, when Labor cut Nola Marino's margin to 4%.
2/24 🧵
8 days until election day, can you believe it! Here's another thread on interesting seats to keep track of as the election approaches - this time focusing on electorates in WA.
1/24 🧵
And thats it for this thread, thank you for reading - Sorry this is so long, planning to cut this down in future!
26/26 🧵
"Teal" candidate Verity Cooper is also running, but it's hard to see her making headway in a 4-cornered contest like Sturt.
Chances are, we'll see Labor end up gaining this seat, but one of the other contenders (namely the Liberals) could pull off a surprise.
25/26 🧵
