The UnlikelThe Unlikely Recovery of America’s China-Shocked Towns. Trump's twin projects of tariffs and immigration crackdowns don't get the credit. If anything, they threaten the recovery. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/o...
Trump has also signed deals with 9 trading partners that require them to align their trade policies with the U.S. —and against China. These are “the most detailed commitments on economic security ever included in a legally binding trade agreement,” Geoffrey Gertz, ex-Biden NSC.
Now Trump is trying to hatch a “preferential trade zone for critical minerals” of several dozen countries with rare-earth deposits. Biden also sought one too but never got it together. It requires lots of subsidies and even if it works it's "super-ugly" says PIIE's Chad Bown.
Trumpian chaos on trade conceals a wider bipartisan shift aimed at China, which dates back to the late Obama administration. Now it's coalitions of the willing-- which sometimes work out as poorly as Bush's invasion of Iraq. foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/06/t...
Sullivan on China mil purges: "Do we end up with a new military leadership that is more likely to want to chomp at the bit when it comes to Taiwan? Is that what Xi is going for? There are some who believe the answer to that question is yes. I’m still in wait-and-see mode."
Sullivan on effectiveness of chip controls "There has been a concerted effort, driven by the Chinese govt and supported by voices in the U.S. and parts of the West, which says that resistance is futile… Why do they want the restrictions taken down? Because they are effective."
Sullivan: "There is absolutely no reason to telegraph so persistently that rare earths are a fatal weakness of the United States, which I don’t believe they are. We could have managed our way through this without throwing up our hands."
Sullivan: Trump is "interested in escalation and concession and then de-escalation. When China really pushed back hard, he thought, ‘Well, I’ve got to move to the de-escalation phase as rapidly as possible."
Jake Sullivan on China and Trump. He "is very sure footed, very confident, very assertive when it comes to countries he perceives as weaker. He is very unsure footed, very tentative and very willing to make concessions to to leaders he thinks are strong." www.thewirechina.com/2026/03/01/j...
Although Trump thinks he can charm and cajole Xi Jinping and Putin, "I’m generally less confident in the ability of any American president to achieve breakthroughs through personal charm or personal diplomacy with capable and committed foes."
Feith lost his job in the Trump 2.0 NSC after
Laura Loomer attacked him. How did feel personally? "I’m not interested much in the personal feelings of it. We all go into these political jobs to serve at the pleasure of the president. These are not entitlements," Feith says
"We have seen instances where senior officials have raised with the president good, hawkish measures to pursue vis-a-vis China, and the president has seemingly batted them down," including banning U.S. land sales to China, says Feith
China hawk David Feith, a Trump 1.0 alum: "Trump isn't pushing "his team to generate broad ideas to compete and change the terms of our relationship with China across the economic, trade, technology, diplomatic, military... domains the way we did," in Trump 1.0 www.thewirechina.com/2026/01/25/d...
Under Biden, when Brainard headed the NEC, she used a "70% rule" to guide recommendations on tariffs and subsidies. "When China had a global share in excess of 70%, it was like a red flashing signal because the global supply chain was excessively dependent on China."
In the Obama years, Brainard was a top Treasury official. She says she urged tariffs to preserve then nascent- US solar industry. "We should have used the import surge tool, but that position was not accepted for reasons to do with broader foreign policy considerations."
Brainard: "When you erode the independence of the Federal Reserve, inflation will likely run higher for a period of time because people start to expect higher inflation. It becomes a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy."
Biden NEC chief and ex Fed vice chair Lael Brainard say tariff impact coming. Tariffs "They are just beginning to work their way through the pricing system." In Trump 1.0 "it took six to nine months for [China] tariffs to push prices up."
www.thewirechina.com/2025/10/05/l...
I do a deep dive into the birth and death of engagement with China -- and (weirdly) the possible revival under Trump 2.0. It's the heart of my review of China scholar David Shambaugh's "Breaking the Engagement." chinabooksreview.com/2025/09/25/e...
China is heading for deflation. Somehow it thinks a political campaign focusing on something called “involution” will help stave off disaster. My latest. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/23/o...
Two National Guardsmem with M16s at the Washington DC DuPont Circle metro entrance. A local is politely engaging with them and criticizing the deployment. Most importantly, Kristy Kreme at the entrance is safe.
China reports that its GDP is growing at about 5%. Nope, says China researcher Rhodium Group. Actual GDP growth is about half that, at 2.8%. rhg.com/research/the...
Kudlow on global reaction to Trump tariffs: lot of people in the media wrote that all these countries were going to talk to China and walk away from the U.S. That didn’t happen. They didn’t go to China. It was like the global instinct was to go to America."
Kudlow on tariffs: "Let’s face it. A tariff is a tax, okay? I know everyone’s worried about inflation. I’m not. Tariffs historically are like taxes. They are recessionary. They are deflationary."
Kudlow on Trump/China: "For better or worse, Trump believes and still believes that he can do business with Xi Jinping on a very personal level. Trump is a trade hawk, but he wants to do business."
Kudlow on Trump's original "Liberation Day" tariffs: "Cockamamie is not a bad word [for the tariffs] and it came from Navarro’s shop. I think I’ve used that word, cockamamie, myself. I was trying to figure the thing out and I couldn’t for the life of me.
Former Trump NEC Director Larry Kudlow: I always thought President Trump, was a little too personalized. A little too, ‘I can charm you into coming around to my point of view.’ There’s a place for that. But it’s just a place." www.thewirechina.com/2025/08/24/l...
Yellen as Fed Chair on China: in 2016, investors thought there was a "Shanghai Protocol" to keep US rates low
if China didn't devalue. "No. We did meet, and we understood the pressures that they were under... That doesn’t require a secret handshake agreement."
www.thewirechina.com/2025/07/18/j...
Yellen as Treasury Secretary on China: "Making changes [to boost consumption] would also ultimately make China less export-dependent... But in the visits that I had during the time that I was at Treasury, it became clear Xi doesn’t want to do that." www.thewirechina.com/2025/07/18/j...
Janet Yellen on Biden WH decision-making and China. "In the economic area, he had very few meetings where the president and senior officials, including cabinet members, give their views and the president asks questions.There were virtually no meetings like that."
www.thewirechina.com/2025/07/18/j...
Janet Yellen on why should doesn't talk to Scott Bessent:"He has succeeded in undoing everything that was a priority of mine at Treasury." Bessent reply: "I couldn’t even tell you what Secretary Yellen’s China policy was, aside from consuming beer and mushrooms." www.thewirechina.com/2025/07/18/j...