In North Carolina, D share of midterm primary vote predicts general election results (plot has contested Senate & House races since '14)
~57% of votes Tuesday were Democratic — even considering historical reversion to 50%, such a lopsided result indicative of strong tailwind for Ds in must-win race
The Senate: Democrats get a couple of rating upgrades this week, with the biggest change coming in Georgia.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260130-top...
The 2025-2026 Gubernatorial Races: Rating changes in Virginia, Iowa and Maine.
(@kkondik.bsky.social and @jmilescoleman.bsky.social, @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250905-top...
Trump approval rating down to 42% amid...
Displeasure with economy — public wants focus on prices, not tariffs
Disapproval of Big Beautiful Bill — most say wealthy benefit
Declining deportation marks — most say dangerous criminals not being prioritized
Analysis: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
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@kkondik.bsky.social writes an excellent companion piece for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Extra meaningful because it compares the Catalist findings as well.
Digging into a New 2024 Postmortem: Findings from Pew’s Validated Voter Study.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250627-top...
How the New @catalist.bsky.social Report on 2024 Compares to the Exit Polls.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @jmilescoleman.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250522-top...
Excited to share some tips for writing about polls for anyone coming in cold to the subject!
(Pictured: a thing on which pollsters are probably not calling you these days).
Crystal Ball -- @jmilescoleman.bsky.social on the NH Senate race as well as how the VA Dem electorate might be getting more "efficient" as state House races loom this fall centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
The 2026 midterm is still more than a year and a half away. Yet there are a few things we can already predict about it with at least a reasonable amount of confidence.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250313-top...
Gore won Minnesota in 2000
Crystal Ball -- Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms: Smaller turnout, an older/whiter/more educated electorate, and the non-presidential party typically improving its share of the overall House vote centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250306-top...
Crystal Ball: Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
i have a new @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Caroline Soler on immigration attitudes. an increasing plurality of Americans support both a path to citizenship and increased border security but this group is also becoming increasingly polarized on party lines goodauthority.org/news/surpris...
NEW Crystal Ball: @jmilescoleman.bsky.social on House district presidential voting in Trump's three elections. All but 28 districts (shown in the map) voted the same way in all 3 elections based on the current lines centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
President Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250221-top...
This is like Senators asking for Trump to release funding for their pet projects. When you campaigned for a personalist presidency you have turned yourself into a beggar seeking the King’s favor rather than a citizen who can be confident of equal treatment for all.
NEW Crystal Ball -- Trump's approval a month in
Still net positive but has weakened a bit. He's also overperforming with some Democratic-leaning groups -- reasonable to wonder whether that will continue
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Memo from Hates, polling results from Lou Harris on Vietnam, with all-caps statement: HE MADE ME SWEAR THERE WOULD BE NO RELEASE and handwritten note “off-record, protect Harris.”
I’m on my third presidential library archive visit, and still I cannot get over that anyone, everyone, can access these historical documents. It’s wonderful.
Also, this was the first document in the first folder I opened.
Republicans Start as Strong Favorites to Hold Senate Majority.
(@kkondik.bsky.social @jmilescoleman.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250213-top...
NEW Crystal Ball Senate ratings, including analysis of midterm Senate rhythms and setting expectations. Rs heavily favored to hold majority. Ratings updated to reflect Tina Smith's retirement earlier today centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
A good piece at Fox News about impoundment (in which I'm quoted). We need more like this in outlets that are read by Republicans. www.foxnews.com/politics/con...
The Separation of Powers system was NOT built for parties, but it sort of worked as long parties weren't THAT cohesive. It's been under pressure for years. Now for the first time a party's President can withhold renomination from legislators who don't vote as they're told and it doesn't work.
No matter how much a member may like shuttering a specific agency or "pausing" to "review" it's work, it blatantly violates congressional authority and weakens their control of future presidents.
It is the worst kind of abdication of power and precedent imaginable.
Raw votes in IA Sen District 35, 2022 midterm -- a little under 24k votes, R wins by 22 pts
Turnout in last night's special -- roughly 9,300, D wins by roughly 3.5 pts
obviously great result for Ds but also much lower turnout than even a midterm, common in these kinds of races
don't know
I don't disagree with this change. But people shouldn't react to retirements like it's 1976. The incumbency advantage is only about 1-2% on average in recent years. National conditions matter much more. If Dems can't win in MI in 2026 with a less well-known candidate, the party has bigger problems.
Peters will be 68 at the end of his term. Others these days are only elected to the Senate in their 60s.
We haven't done Senate ratings yet, but Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) retiring probably moves that race from starting in Leans D to starting in Toss-up.