Are there, perhaps, any recent examples of dubious characters with obvious security risks being appointed to the House of Lords?

Canvassing also breaks down when you party collapses in the polls. For every voter who shouts at you there are 50 who are polite but don't bother voting for you this time or are too kind to tell you.

A 6. that I believe true: There is a group of people, including some MPs, who quite simply don't believe polling. Could be "who owns YouGov" conspiracism (less common among MPs), or recall of past misses, or discomfort with numbers/stats, or general "you can't measure this/predict the future", etc.

The European Political Science Review (EPSR) has published my solo-authored paper on Affinity Voting in Europe 🤓

In it, I ask:

Do voters prefer in-group politicians?

Answer:

Sometimes, sometimes not. Minorities prefer their in-group less often than majorities do.

🧵

doi.org/10.1017/S175...

Businessman admits to pocketing millions from Thurrock council Liam Kavanagh used taxpayers’ cash to fund life of luxury and ‘honestly believed he was entitled to the money’

Businessman Liam Kavanagh admits he pocketed “substantial part” of £130m Thurrock council thought it was investing in a solar park deal

New by me for @tbij.bsky.social

UK's migration crackdown risks care home staffing crunch Government plans to make it harder for migrant workers to settle permanently in Britain risk a staffing crunch in care homes for elderly people, where one employee in three is from overseas.

Good Reuters story on the government's "earned settlement" proposals and the care sector.

www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks...

Robbins says that when he arrived in post, a due diligence report had been undertaken by the Cabinet Office, and the PM had announced the appointment - and [Mandelson] was already being given higher classification briefings

Robbins says there was generally dismissive attitude towards his clearance.

Bucky & Sam Fix The Boat [4K] | Falcon and Winter Soldier 1x05 YouTube video by Ark-M

youtu.be/1uHo1hvNLw4?...

Falcon and the Winter Soldier - a terrible show that will always have a special place in my heart for two reasons:
(1) making it a load bearing plot point that a universe saving Avenger can’t get a mortgage (and has *no* other finance options)
(2) Boat Repair Montage!

Question. Assuming 4 hour batteries come down in price sufficiently to be economic storage systems, how many times in a year are solar and wind insufficient to power the grid for longer than 4 hours?

ie how much more of our base generation needs could be satisfied with 4 hour batteries?

Brb, setting up one of those "text for a ringtone" businesses from the early 2000s.

I think apply the @robfordmancs.bsky.social logic to this and assume it'll be 10% worse/ crazier.

🌟 You'll hear from experts @robfordmancs.bsky.social, @beccam-c.bsky.social (@ippr.org) and Roisín Cavanagh (@friends-earth.bsky.social).

💥 Plus, JUST's own @bankfieldbecky.bsky.social, @matpaterson.bsky.social and @luciemidd.bsky.social
will present our latest research on climate and volatility.

Yes I just think TH has been written off by most in Labour as “its own weird thing” ever since the Lutfur Rahman era/saga began so I don’t think losses there hit as hard as elsewhere in inner Ldn

Very good, but I wonder what is the earliest moment you could have written this article, and I think it is probably pre-election when they weren't sure if GB Energy was a nationalised producer, state investment vehicle or a matching fund and Starmer just avoided it.

This is quite the point. I think when you take on the leadership of a failing institution that’s effectively abandoned process you can come to believe that restoring that alone will lead to positive change.
Institution, in this case, can refer to either party or country.

And Tower Hamlets isn’t a surprise - it has its own unique politics at the moment and Labour already lost most of their councillors there last time

Well, IMHO it shouldn't be, but I agree it often is (and it is right that it has its own impact - polls can be and are sometimes wrong, though the general pattern is to over-estimate Labour!)

Also: if you are going to move you dont do it pre-election to avoid any blame

The structure of local contests will add to this. In London, many Labour MPs may see all of their local councillors wiped out overnight. That could trigger panic. Elsewhere, with elections held in "thirds" MPs who see big losses in their local patch may believe a switch could save those who remain.

Even if they don't have especially close relationships with their local councillors, most MPs in strongly Labour areas will have relied on councillors as the core of their local organisation and activism. Having that decimated overnight will concentrate minds...

I'm sure there are more, but whatever the mechanism, its clear that bad election results have a psychological impact all of their own, even after months of dire polling. They make a long accepted problem more real and urgent. Many MPs will have friends/relatives voted out of local/devolved office.

4. Underestimating opponents ("The Greens/Reform are obviously mad and/or muppets, no one will really vote for them")
5. Lack of attention ("Wait, what did you say the results in my borough were?? Why did no one tell me we were in trouble!")

Why? Some possibilities:
1. Partisan denial ("the polls are dire but our core voters still believe in us, I see it on the doorstep every week")
2. Local denial ("many areas are screwed but *my* area is fine")
3. Reality of losses brought home ("I can't believe my best mate councillor X got beat")

I agree - it is a peculiar but undeniable fact that even when the polls make it obvious from space that a party will do terribly in local or devolved elections, the losses actually arriving still have an impact.

This is right. I think can’t rule out that the local elections cause a mass “screw it, we just need to change” panic.

Sam Coates reports "We've got some breaking news"

It turns out that the head of the civil service told Starmer he should get all the security vetting done before he announced who'd be the new ambassador

"Clearly Starmer chose not to do that, [he] chose to ignore formal advice"

As readers of my newsletter may have noticed, I have become increasingly incessant in my call for people to photograph and email the leaflets they get to me, in part because it took me ages to absorb that it wasn't that fewer readers were sending me leaflets, but that fewer Tories were sending them.

Susan has worked out that the Right bloc vote in Leave-voting Sutton may be splitting. Clever Susan. @robfordmancs.bsky.social @benansell.bsky.social #london