Modelling the US military's missile consumption in Iran

So a repeat of the former British building societies, Irish banks and the British commercial property market c.2005 to March 2008. Be dead exciting if actual banks financed the private credit lot to do lending the actual banks themselves wouldn't touch, and dressed it up as FI exposure.

The US MSM takes its cues from Right wing talking points, hence the attention paid to Hunter Biden vs silence surrounding Jared Kushner, despite Saudi Arabia handing the latter $2bn on v.generous terms to transition from nepo-baby real estate investor to private equity guru/the Trump family Obshchak

So influence/foreign policy benefits plus investment in product development and production, scope for scale economies all over the place (negating the advantage Russia's larger economy is assumed to enjoy), and co-production out of range of any Russian drones. Nice!

Perhaps in an academic sense, but given the multiple steps taken by the Trump administration to undermine Ukraine are part of the same milieu as Russian propaganda to the extent it includes the repetition of Russian talking points, am not sure any separation, while palatable, is especially plausible

Genuinely curious, how can you write a piece for a mostly American audience that invokes the baleful influence of Russian propaganda while omitting the step change in US policy and the Trump administration's turn to Russia since Jan 2025?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesi...

3/3 The same type of adjustments, only then they were negative and involved smaller portfolios, were presumably made when interest rates were increased.

2/3 Market Revaluation: As market demand for higher-yielding existing bonds increases, their market price rises. For Russian banks, this translates to an increase in the book value of their current holdings, as the FMV of these assets appreciates.

1/3 Apologies, I was being quite general. Re: your original question (with some AI help)

Inverse Correlation: When the central bank reduces interest rates, yields on subsequently issued OFZs also fall, making existing bonds, which carry higher "locked-in" fixed rates, more valuable to investors

2/2 Multiple factors affect security values e.g. market sentiment, issuer credit quality, broader economic conditions, including interest rates, etc. And yes it's an improvement. The film Margin Call is largely about this in reverse (massive losses on paper). And apologies to any accountants.

1/2 These are presumably debt securities held as available for sale/trading, which are revalued at the end of every reporting period. Any increase = gain, any decrease = loss, and is recorded in the P&L (but has no impact on cashflow, cos it's just an accounting adjustment until it's actually sold).

#filth

America turning off the defensive systems of Ukraine's F16s in March 2025 was a seemingly little decision (depending on your side of the Atlantic or are Canadian) that's had massive ramifications.

US-sanctioned ships pass Strait of Hormuz as China calls Trump's blockade 'dangerous' | BBC News YouTube video by BBC News

TACO

Trump's attacks on NATO - (t)hey weren't there for us - benefits greatly from the American tendency to under-report, lie about and/or misrepresent US and European aid for Ukraine since Jan 2025. At no point has Trump's America been there for Ukraine.

one immediate dramatic consequence of the Hungarian result:

Magyar has promised to repair relations with the EU and unblock a €90bn EU loan for Ukraine

TBF America is mostly psychologically incapable of accepting that it's aligned itself with dictators, actively promotes anti-democratic, far right/fascist politics overseas and just suffered a v.obvious and v.straightforward strategic defeat. So Trump spraffing about victory regardless fits the vibe

A creator taking the time to share an insight into their (brilliant) creation is some good internet.

An American think tank fellow and broadsheet newspaper columnist spreading obvious misinformation on twitter about US aid for Ukraine. Facts.

5/5 The above is intended to provide context for @michaelkofman.bsky.social 's discussion of US aid on the latest war on the rocks podcast, which provides a notable example of American expert opinion (rough transcript attached)
warontherocks.com/2026/04/upda...

4/5 support America’s actual policy of no more Ukraine aid. Reasons as to why include deliberate White House misinformation, the showboating of politicians such as Lindsey Graham and a media reluctant or too ignorant to accurately report on America’s new, much reduced and realigned role.

3/5 In response Ukraine and its allies have sought to reduce any dependencies on the US, and by January this year France was reported to have replaced the US as Ukraine’s primary intelligence provider.

The American public appears mostly unaware of America’s turn to Russia given only a minority

2/5 the US now sells weapons to Ukraine via its allies, but the $4.3bn cost of these is fractional compared to total Ukrainian requirements. Moreover, the US has used aid and PURL to blackmail the EU/UK as part of its trade negotiations and to put pressure on Ukraine to accept Russian demands.

1/5 Aid for Ukraine - economic, military and humanitarian (above all safe hosting of refugees) - forms a 3 legged stool, take one away, the stool falls over. The US stopped approving new aid in Jan 2025 and has intermittently frozen the delivery of already approved aid since then. True with PURL,

* the same bugger all is a reminder the normalising relations with Russia and big deals would follow chat from the US negotiators was always bollocks.

The Bruegel Russian foreign trade tracker has total Russian exports to the US in 2025 at $3.8bn, so bugger all*. Other than financial, US sanctions on Russia have always been about their secondary effect.

America's relative "military prowess" graphed. Comparing c.30,000 ships sailing thru the strait p.a., at a potential $1-2m a pop with Iran's annual military budget, indicates at least the finance for a rapid rearmament will be there in a matter of months. #maximumlethality

Reading this is an opportunity to be more informed about the reality of Russian "dealmaking" than the American negotiating team. Yay.

Iran's "victory" presumably depends on which points (there are multiple lists in circulation unfortunately) stick e.g. I'm not sure the lifting of all US sanctions and a $2m per ship (shared with Oman) toll if in perpetuity = stuffed.