The old of civilization is always falling apart even as it newly grows. Additional decay forced by climate change need only grow by 0.1%/year to lead to civilization collapse by 2070, sooner for higher rates. We will collapse slowly then all at once.
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
It's almost as if the expectation of economists is that widespread crop failure or infrastructure damage would do nothing to prices. Doesn't add up.
A really odd thing about existing Integrated Assessment Model descriptions of climate damages is that they imply (as we describe) absurdly low rates of economic inflation even for catastrophic warming egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
New preprint out in @EGU_ESD showing how a global hyperinflationary shock is an expected consequence of climate change, plausibly emerging in the next few decades.
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
Not the first time I've posted this, but I always find it quite fascinating how well it continues to hold. For over *two thousand years*, atmospheric CO2 perturbations have scaled with the world GDP. Aren't the implications for climate change mitigation pretty simple...?
Glen, what are the uncertainties on the emissions? Could they be underreported for political reasons that introduce a flattened trend eg post Paris?
The monitor packaging said 50% brain capacity at 1500 ppm which seems exaggerated. I’m frequently 50% at much lower levels
I find I can do scientific writing up to 5000 ppm. 40,000 is what I read as the limit. Like non-vented gas fireplaces are widely sold. Seems like a bad idea to me but presumably there’s other reasons humanity cognition is cratering
I got my cabin up to 6000 ppm recently. Exercise in paleo time travel
Of course, but comparing numbers with different units is the sort of thing education is supposed to fix
Different units as one is annual. The two numbers can’t be compared as presented
Through a research program for undergrads sponsored by the Dean’s office I am able to accomplish research goals it would be harder to do otherwise through my grants, impossible through department overhead. Does the Dean’s cut matter if it’s well spent?
Can you elaborate on what that 10% of indirects you mention went towards? It's not obvious how the dean controlling the money is a problem.
In 2017 at a small meeting in Switzerland on energy and the economy, experts scolded me that the economy would collapse from resource depletion and debt, certainly by 2025. I argued inertia would keep it growing longer (not forever). Here we are. Physics actually works! Always.
So it turns out snowflake settling is full of surprises. Not just size, not just shape, not just density, not just turbulence, but perhaps more than anything it is the mean wind horizontal winds speeds that controls how fast snowflakes fall
essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....
Origami Black Hole xkcd.com/3033
I developed an economic theory that underscores how energy and matter are the twin cornerstones of economic activity and growth, how mitigating climate change will require a fundamental restructuring of society. Here's a nice video produced about it
www.youtube.com/watch?v=soXW...
What do you mean clouds are heavy? As a cloud physicist that strikes me as an odd comment. Relative to what? Their density is on average the same as surrounding air
Tim Garrett
@nephologue
Human history is the tension between boundless exponential expansion and the harsh reality of resource depletion and pollution. Can innovation forever keep us afloat, or will nature hasten our demise? A new video:
t.co/B35B4YBRSl
FWIW I’m a professor of Atmospheric Sciences. This stuff is just a side gig. You should make your own content !
New video. Our economic models are unscientific: their assumptions cannot potentially be disproved. Starting ground-up from thermodynamic principles, we can build new economic models that make the testable predictions we need to guide our economic future
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFh0...
New preprint of a submission to GRL presenting theoretical and numerical arguments that tropical cloud height can be determined from the mean tropospheric temperature profile alone
essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....
We must face the limits to our economic growth. Civilization thrives on high availability of energy and material resources, but at the cost of pollution and depletion. Traditional economics trivializes these constraints and risks hastening our collapse
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip5l...
Civilization grows by efficiently using an energy surplus to transform the earth's crust into the stuff of us.
However, growth has limits. Resource depletion and internal decay will tip us towards collapse. A new video:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOdo...
The basis is non-equilibrium thermodynamics, which may sound daunting, but these concepts underlie our lives. I think the animations led by Michael Fardos really help develop an intuitive understanding of economic growth and decline. I hope you enjoy
www.youtube.com/channel/UCA6...
Key topics covered by the channel include efficiency, innovation, climate change, climate damages, energy and raw material resources, consumption, depletion, pollution, GDP growth, and economic inflation
The goal of the channel is to describe in a very accessible way some of the findings from work I've done describing how the global economy evolves, using concepts from physics rather than traditional neoclassical economic growth models
