Read the whole @carbonbrief.org on the historic report written by a group of scientists, including IPCC authors, who are willing to be policy prescriptive and whose recommendations are not getting watered down by petrostate governments.
www.carbonbrief.org/revealed-sci...
![The report lists 12 "action insights", each with three "action recommendations". (The list
was cut down from a shortlist of about 40-50 insights, Carbon Brief understands.)
One of the most striking in the draft is "action insight 5", which says: "Take immediate measures to prevent future emissions. Ban new fossil infrastructure, mandate deep methane cuts, accelerate electrification and inscribe fossil-fuel phase- down targets in NDCs [nationally determined contributions] and clean-energy pathways
support to low and middle income countries (LMICs)." The accompanying three "action recommendations" include "halting all new fossil-fuel extraction and infrastructure projects ahead of a final investment decision", "implementing deep, legally binding methane cuts in the energy sector" and "inscribing] targets for fossil-
fuel phase down, electrification and green exports in NDCs". (The draft report includes multiple references to "phasing out" and "phasing down" fossil fuels, rather than the "transition away from fossil fuels" language that was, ultimately,
agreed by countries at the COP 28 UN climate talks in Dubai in 2023.)](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:xalxqffcayyidntafmptzhta/bafkreian2ufespiadxcuyeock76lqppss4i5hlj5ccgc6zryh2gniizgl4)
The report lists 12 "action insights", each with three "action recommendations". (The list was cut down from a shortlist of about 40-50 insights, Carbon Brief understands.) One of the most striking in the draft is "action insight 5", which says: "Take immediate measures to prevent future emissions. Ban new fossil infrastructure, mandate deep methane cuts, accelerate electrification and inscribe fossil-fuel phase- down targets in NDCs [nationally determined contributions] and clean-energy pathways support to low and middle income countries (LMICs)." The accompanying three "action recommendations" include "halting all new fossil-fuel extraction and infrastructure projects ahead of a final investment decision", "implementing deep, legally binding methane cuts in the energy sector" and "inscribing] targets for fossil- fuel phase down, electrification and green exports in NDCs". (The draft report includes multiple references to "phasing out" and "phasing down" fossil fuels, rather than the "transition away from fossil fuels" language that was, ultimately, agreed by countries at the COP 28 UN climate talks in Dubai in 2023.)
A preliminary scientific “synthesis report” circulated to the 50 nations at the conference on fossil-fuel phase out in Santa Marta, Columbia, recommends real-talk "action recommendations" including the ban of new fossil infrastructure and fossil-fuel phase-down targets in NDCs.
This is the way!
We have a new preprint out for open review at Ocean Science, which discusses the evidence for the #AMOC already slowing. 🌊
If you have any comments, counter-arguments, or things we may have missed - please post them there! (Or here.)
Thanks!
egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
2026 is on track to be the second-warmest year. Annual global average surface temperature anomalies from the WMO aggregate plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. To-date 2026 values include January-March. The estimated 2026 annual value is based on the relationship between the January-March temperatures and annual temperatures between 1970 and 2025. Chart by Carbon Brief.
NEW – State of the climate: Strong El Niño puts 2026 on track for second-warmest year | @hausfath.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/ZGpMVJo
Global temperatures in 2026 are on track to be the second warmest on record, at around 1.47C above preindustrial levels across the five different records assessed by Carbon Brief. Read more in our latest State of the Climate update for Q1 2026 here: www.carbonbrief.org/...
Made some videos with @certainty-aci.bsky.social about the climate impact of clouds and aerosols.
And you can check out the first one here 👇
Ich hatte gestern die Gelegenheit, im Gespräch mit Yve Fehring von @3sat.nano mal zu erklären, wie und mit welchen Methoden Katherina Reiche gerade versucht, den Ausbau von erneuerbaren Energien und Speichern zu sabotieren. (So ab Minute 5)
www.3sat.de/wissen/n...)
THREAD: The IEA global energy review 2026
* CO2 record high, but growth nearly ground to halt
* Clean energy shaved 3bn tonnes off CO2
* Fossil-fuel power pushed into reverse
* Age of Electricity "confirmed"
* "Extraordinary" solar growth
* Batteries up 40%
* EVs up 20%
1/10
So mancher Experte scheint vergessen zu haben, dass globale CO2 Emissionen jährlich um mind. 7% sinken müssten, um eine Chance auf eine halbwegs sichere Zukunft zu haben. Sie stiegen auch 2025... 10 Jahre nach Paris 😬😪
"Zwei Schlauchboote sind rausgefahren zum #Wal. Laut NDR Informationen ist auf dem einen Boot ein Youtuber und auf dem anderen DLRG-Personal. Sie umkreisen den Wal mit den Booten."
#omg
With the latest set of El Niño forecasts, NOAA's CFSv2 model needs to get a larger y-axis scale 😯
Excellent:
👇🏻
"For these #nonlinear changes, timelines of executive tenure and currently projected change are mismatched,
which impedes effective long-term decision-making."
#ClimateChange
“…Irreversible for hundreds to thousands of years”
“Irreversible”.
This is infinitely more consequential than Trump, oil prices, Hormuz etc. yet we continue to ignore it.
"Für Rosario und seinen Vater Pipo aber geht es um mehr als Zahlen. Es geht um ihr Zuhause und um die Frage, ob ihr #Heimatort auch in #Zukunft noch sicher ist."
#KlimaWandel #Zyklon #Harry #Mittelmeer
@deutschewelle.dw.com 👍
@deutschewelle.dw.com 👍
...dass ein #Sturm wie #Harry in #Südtitalien keine Ausnahme bleiben wird, davon ist der #Klimaforscher C. Mulder (U. Catania) überzeugt:
"Das #Mittelmeer ist so warm wie noch nie [...] und je länger das so bleibt, desto öfter wird es heftige #Stürme und #Starkregen geben, wie beim #Zyklon Harry."
In the words of Carl Sagan
Worüber ich heute "gestolpert" bin😀Good news.
"Durch ihr Grasen, das Umwerfen von Bäumen, das Schälen von Rinde und Staubbäder helfen die Tiere dem Wald bei der natürlichen Verjüngung und schaffen Lebensräume für andere Arten.
Das erhöht die Artenvielfalt und bringt komplexe Ökosysteme zurück."
yeah, as always...
😉
(good to know I'm still reasonable..)
Map of the contiguous United States showing the spring bloom index anomaly as of April 19, 2026 from the USA National Phenology Network. Many areas are earlier than normal.
Aside from Florida, nearly the entire contiguous U.S. has experienced earlier than average first plant blooms in 2026. Earlier springs can cause longer allergy seasons, accelerate wildfire risk, increase pests/mosquitoes, and lead to less reliable snow-fed water.
Map: www.usanpn.org/data/maps/sp...
I'll have another "lunch hour" live virtual office hour at 12 noon PT on Tue, Apr 21, to discuss continuation of an unusually active spring weather pattern in California, broader context of strange 25-26 Water Year, and links to now record-warm NE Pacific.
Wholeheartedly agree!
ThX!
I was wondering if the uptick in recent SSTs in '26 (2 models, and yes: early) is comparable to what happened in '23.
My thought is that natural variability could shift to another 'regime'* with continued anthropogenic forcing (energy imbalance, ocean heat uptake...).
*gobsmackingly
Bc you are my trusted sources: I'm genuinely interested in your your thoughts, opinions, objections (rnd):
@drkatemarvel.bsky.social
@weatherwest.bsky.social
@climateadam.bsky.social
@drgilbz.bsky.social
@climateofgavin.bsky.social
@hausfath.bsky.social
@zacklabe.com
@michaelemann.bsky.social
🙏
This is not to say 'all is lost' - on the contrary!
Given how #Mitigation and GHG reduction is backrolled in EU and Germany I want to focus on reality and increase (public) pressure on policies to speed up mitigation and increase awareness for resilience and adaptation.
Could this point to a pattern?
Can we reasonably expect another +0.1°C increase of GMT in 2026/27?
Would that not lead to 5yr avg to > 1.5°C?
Isn't the Paris target done for good?
Are these observations too simplistic?
Climate Scientists:
2023 - is happening again in 2026?
- Apr-23: surge in SST
- Jun-23: surge in GMT
- 2024: ElNino pushed GMT by ~0.1°C
- 2025 @ 1.4°C above preindustrial (ERA5)
- 2023-25: 3yr avg >1.5°C
- Apr-26: surge in SST (NOAA, ERA5)?
- Jul-26: possible ElNino (NOT talkin "super"!)
1/2
