Europe doesn't care about the UK - we're deluded The story of Brexit has, in part, been one of Britain misunderstanding the European Union

Me on why it is important that the UK understands where the EU is on Brexit inews.co.uk/news/world/e...

What I’ve learned from energy experts in Germany is that there are several reasons for Germany’s insistence on not using nuclear energy. One is the trauma caused by the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters.

A successful negotiation leaves both sides feeling the deal is fair even if neither side gets everything they want. If one side feels like they “won” at the expense of the other, the deal will probably not last.

How Hungary Escaped Electoral Autocracy Viktor Orbán’s defeat will have consequences for the country, Europe, and aspiring autocrats around the world.

My take on the Hungarian election in @lawfaremedia.org www.lawfaremedia.org/article/how-...

Magyar’s Tisza is more anti-Putin & pro-EU than Orbán’s Fidesz. But their European Parliament voting shows less distance on immigration & Ukraine than many expect. Magyar will likely work with 🇪🇺 to unlock frozen funds & not veto aid to🇺🇦. Still, Ukraine’s EU accession may not be high on his agenda.

Research shows pro-democracy wins in authoritarian systems often fall short: New leaders keep unfair rules and/or old regime loyalists block reform.

In Hungary, Magyar has 2/3 majority & strong ties to democracies. There's reason for hope but only if he's genuinely committed to democratic change.

This is a major moment for Hungary. The country now has a real chance to move back toward electoral democracy. Expecting much more in the short term would be unrealistic.

💥🇭🇺🗳️ BREAKING: Péter Magyar says Viktor Orbán called to concede and congratulate him.

Magyar will be Hungary’s next prime minister and, as it stands, is set to secure a 2/3 supermajority – enough to fully dismantle Orbán’s system.

A 16-year chapter is over.

Viktor Orbán has congratulated Péter Magyar! #Hungary

Here's the map with 1/3rd of the votes counted. Tisza = blue; Fidesz = orange. The strength of the color tells you how far ahead the lead party is. It's a blow-out. Fidesz strongholds are falling to Tisza.

Votes cast at embassies will be counted only after they are sent in on April 17. So, the final result may not be known until April 18, which would matter only if the race is very close.

Nemzeti Választási Iroda - Országgyűlési képviselők választása Választási szervek - Nemzeti Választási Iroda

Votes are starting to come in -- with 3% of the vote counted, Tisza is on track for 91 seats to Fidesz 76, with many to be called. 100 necessary for a majority, 133 for a constitutional majority (2/3rds vote can change the constitution). vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filt...

🗳️ Dans le sondage Medián réalisé ces derniers jours, on voyait l'avantage massif de l'opposition chez les jeunes (73% vs 11%), alors que le Fidesz de Viktor Orban restait dominant chez les 50 ans et plus.

The all-time-high voter turnout in Hungary does not necessarily favor either the government or the opposition. Both sides have been mobilizing their supporters heavily. What is clear is that Hungarian voters are deeply aware of the importance of this election.

Beyond electoral politics, the far right is well-connected through various "think tanks" and other organisations.

The Orbán government has also spent tons of money on funding various GONGOs and "think tanks" that will most likely survive and are linked to far-right organisations in other countries.

👀🗳️ When polls close in Hungary at 7pm, there won’t be proper exit polls. Instead, some reliable independent pollsters will release embargoed surveys conducted just days before the vote. Their results are in line with their previous, already published findings (no surprises).

Historic turnout in 🇭🇺 – 66% as of 3pm. We will likely have surpassed 2022's turnout (70.2%) by 5pm.

I don't dare to draw any conclusions or make predictions based on turnout data alone, but let's just say: Hungarians know how consequential this election is, and they are mobilising in huge numbers.

If democracy in Europe is to improve any time soon, that change has to begin in Hungary today.

💥Hungary’s opposition leader Péter Magyar vows investigations into Russian interference and foreign minister Péter Szijjártó after our consortium revealed recordings and transcripts showing his collusion with Sergey Lavrov to leak EU documents and undermine EU sanctions: vsquare.org/kremlin-hotl...

One obvious point is that state capture in Hungary is so pervasive & in favor of the ruling party that even if the opposition wins tomorrow (still a big IF) reforming the system would require real self-restraint instead of simply benefiting from the anti-democratic advantages already built into it.

Then, spending this summer in Turkey will help. Probably?

Howard, kendine biraz haksızlık ediyorsun bence. Anadili Türkçe olan tanıdıklarımın önemli bir kısmından daha iyi Türkçe konuşuyorsun.

I cannot think of many recent cases where the US and Russian governments so openly supported the same candidate in a major election in Europe (or anywhere else). Hungary may be one of the rare exceptions.

Yet another reason Russia would very much like Orbán to win on Sunday. It is likely to be a close race, and the days right after the election could be especially tense.

In many rural villages, state-run TV remains the only source of news. Using disinformation, he has continued to exploit fears of war. And that message still resonates with many voters.

When we factor in the current electoral system, which is tilted in his favor, the result is far from certain.

Viktor Orban ‘staged gas pipeline plot to revive flagging campaign’ Hungary’s prime minister has been accused of a ‘false flag’ operation to boost his chances of re-election on Sunday, with his party trailing in the polls

This ⬇️ is a useful reminder that, despite polls showing the opposition ahead, the outcome of Hungary’s election this Sunday is still uncertain.

www.thetimes.com/world/europe...

Orbán controls about 90% of the media environment and nearly all television, radio, and print outlets.

🙂bsky.app/profile/mertkartal.bsky....

8/8 ...and many governments still hesitate to set a precedent that could one day be used against them.

Of course, much of this will depend not only on who wins, but also on how they win. If I had to guess, I would expect a close election and a longer wait than usual for the final results.

7/8 If Orbán claims victory in a disputed outcome, tensions with the EU would likely grow. The EU could freeze more funds and try to bypass Hungary through “26+1” cooperation.

Another option is Art. 7(2), which could suspend Hungary’s voting rights in the Council. But that process is difficult...