A key reason for this is that PIP claims tend to last a long time. Two-thirds of those who started getting PIP in 2017 were still receiving it 5 years later. This means we'll still be dealing with the post-pandemic surge in new awards for many years to come.
However, even with new awards falling, its likely that total PIP claimant numbers and spending will remain high. Official forecasts expect new applications (and awards) to PIP to fall a bit further, but expect total spending on PIP to increase by another £7 billion by 2029/30
New PIP (disability benefits) data is out and it will be welcome news to the government who have expressed a desire to slow the rise in PIP claims. The number of new PIP claims each month has fallen again and is now considerably below its peak although still well above pre-pandemic levels.
Chart shows monthly new awards of personal independence payment. Title states: "The number of new monthly awards for disability benefits has continued to fall, but remain well above the pre-pandemic average."
NEW: Today’s new statistics show that the number of people starting disability benefits each month has continued to decline.
Monthly awards are still above pre-pandemic levels, however.
📊 @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Sam Ray-Chaudhuri’s new comment explains the new data:
Great analysis by my @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. The Government's jobs guarantee and youth jobs grant provide big (if temporary) incentives to hire young people who have been unemployed and on the relevant bit of universal credit for more than 6 months.
Today we updated our @theifs.bsky.social spending tool with 2024-25 data! Do have a play around with it if you're having a quiet Friday afternoon - it lets you produce some nice breakdowns of different types of spending, across different areas and over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...
This is a great briefing by my @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. With energy prices rising, now is the time to think about how best to design any potential support package. Government can use linked data on energy usage and income to deliver well-targeted interventions without distorting energy prices
The Spring Forecast confirmed that the Spending Review next year looks tough. Plans are currently for departmental spending to grow by just 0.9% per year on average in real terms in the next Spending Review period, much slower than planned for the first part of the parliament.
Here it is, my magnum opus: an analysis of what’s wrong with the UK’s approach to fiscal policy (under this and previous governments), and a proposal for what an alternative to pass-fail fiscal rules could look like.
I’ll follow up with a longer thread later.
Scotland benefits from free university tuition, free personal care services, and smaller class sizes than England. Why? Because the Scottish Government receives 26% more funding per resident than is spent in England on comparable services. This funding advantage is now being (very) gradually eroded.
An excellent and much-needed explainer of our complicated and controversial student loans system
The @lowpaycommission.bsky.social annual report is out. As always contains lots of insights. This is key chart for me: 20% of jobs are now paid within £1 of the minimum wage, up from 14% in 2015. Whatever you think of the minimum wage, its increasingly important!
Great to make first appearance on IFS Zooms In Pod. @helenmiller.bsky.social and I were joined by the excellent @alanmanning4.bsky.social to talk about what's happened to to the UK minimum wage, and what impact its having on the UK labour market. Give it a listen.
Here's a starter pack of IFS economists posting on BlueSky. Make sure you're following them all for the top-quality economic analysis on labour markets, inequality, public finances, healthcare, education and more! go.bsky.app/NYPwMB
New ONS public finance data today shows central government revenues are still lagging significantly below March expectations.
Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast
They also provide some insight into the recent surge in disability benefit claims. Our results provide some suggestive evidence that rising cost-of-living is one factor behind the recent surge in disability benefit claims.
Our results are important for benefit design. Policy makers should account for the indirect effect of changing one bit of the benefit system on other bits of the system.
Great to get this new research out. We find that following cuts to non-health benefit income cause more people to claim disability benefits.
NEW: Cuts to non-health-related benefits caused increases in disability benefit claims, our new report finds.
📗 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, Sam Ray-Chaudhuri and Tom Waters examine the impact of four cuts to benefits in the 2010s [THREAD:🧵]:
The government has announced it intends to abolish the two-child limit, at a cost of £3bn according to @OBR_UK.
This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families.
#Budget2025
If there were an election tomorrow, more net tax increases would have been announced in this parliament than in any other since at least 1970.
#Budget2025
While @lowpaycommission.bsky.social have closely monitored recent increases and found no clear evidence of negative employment effects, recent falls in employment in low-paid sectors such as hospitality make this is a riskier time to raise minimum wage rates than some recent years.
Minimum wages for younger workers are also set to grow faster than the 21+ rate as the Government moves towards its commitment to equalise the 18-20 minimum wage rate to the 21+ minimum wage.
The Government has announced that the adult minimum wage will increase by 4.1% to £12.71. This is likely to be faster than inflation and average earnings growth. The UK’s minimum wage is already one of the highest amongst developed countries and this will push it higher.
Chart shows percentage of 55- to 64-year-old women experiencing depressive symptoms, by third of the wealth distribution, 2002–03 to 2023–24. Title states: "39% of the poorest third of 55- to 64-year-old women reported depressive symptoms in 2023–24, compared to 10% of the wealthiest third."
NEW: Depressive symptoms have risen among women in their late 50s and early 60s, particularly among the least wealthy women.
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social and Jonathan Cribb's new report examines health, wealth and employment in the run-up to the state pension age: [THREAD]
You can also watch back to our event discussing the report with valuable comments from
@ruthpatrick0.bsky.social here: ifs.org.uk/events/why-d...
For lots more detail and interesting facts you can read the green budget chapter here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
And this is a growing issue. The share of children getting high-level targeted support for additional needs has doubled across both the benefit and education systems.
New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system.
50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22.
Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate
