“The Mosler-Cantillon-Menger Synthesis: A Complete Theory of the Price Level”

zenodo.org/records/1954... #econsky

Investment in infrastructure (energy and otherwise), research, etc that precludes shortages is what has been/is needed.
The absurd lack of the above “bc we can’t afford it” is the problem

"À la recherche de débats perdus": how model setup language structures economic analysis A sampling of stock modeling phrases and what earlier economists debated and later ones forgot

"À la recherche de débats perdus": how model setup language structures economic analysis

A sampling of standard modeling phrases and what earlier economists debated and later ones forgot

clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky

The Intercept Is Where Causality Lives: A Structural Turn in Economics Economics happens in the intercept

The Intercept Is Where Causality Lives: A Structural Turn in Economics

Economics happens in the intercept

clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-interc... #econsky

The Non-Scalable Intercept: When Networks Defy Antitrust Thresholds that create markets, not margins

When singular, it renders competition incoherent: policy must shift from taming monopolies to governing (or publicly providing) the network core. Some markets require collective provision to exist at all.
#econsky
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-non-sc...

This post introduces the non-scalable intercept – a coordination threshold in network industries crossed only once without destroying value.

'À la recherche de débats perdus': Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot How model-setup language structures economic analysis

À LA RECHERCHE DE DÉBATS PERDUS

Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot

How model-setup language structures economic analysis

clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky

The Non-Scalable Intercept: When Networks Defy Antitrust Thresholds that create markets, not margins

The Non-Scalable Intercept: When Networks Defy Antitrust

Thresholds that create markets, not margins

clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-non-sc... #econsky

The Non-Scalable Intercept: When Networks Defy Antitrust Thresholds that create markets, not margins

The Non-Scalable Intercept: When Networks Defy Antitrust

Thresholds that create markets, not margins

clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-non-sc... #econsky

'À la recherche de débats perdus': Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot How model-setup language structures economic analysis

À LA RECHERCHE DE DÉBATS PERDUS

Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot

How model-setup language structures economic analysis

clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky

"À la recherche de débats perdus": how model setup language structures economic analysis A sampling of stock modeling phrases and what earlier economists debated and later ones forgot

"À la recherche de débats perdus": how model setup language structures economic analysis

A sampling of standard modeling phrases and what earlier economists debated and later ones forgot

clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky

Before Identification and Inference: Where the Causal Claim Enters Several recent posts by Carlos Chavez are on themes close to my recent posts on causality, quasi-experiments etc.

Before Identification and Inference: Where the Causal Claim Enters

clintballinger.substack.com/p/before-ide... #econsky

Before Identification and Inference: Where the Causal Claim Enters Several recent posts by Carlos Chavez are on themes close to my recent posts on causality, quasi-experiments etc.

Before Identification and Inference: Where the Causal Claim Enters

clintballinger.substack.com/p/before-ide... #econsky

Zero Is Not a Floor. It Is the Foundation. Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation

Zero Is Not a Floor. It Is the Foundation.
Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation

clintballinger.substack.com/p/zero-is-no... #econsky

Your Research Design IS Your Causal Statement (It was never the estimator) What Quasi-Experiments Actually Do

Causality in applied economics doesn’t come from estimators, asymptotics, or robustness checks. It enters earlier - when the design defines the baseline and the shock.

Everything else just measures it.

#econsky open.substack.com/pub/clintbal...

Your Research Design IS Your Causal Statement (It was never the estimator) What Quasi-Experiments Actually Do

Causality in applied economics doesn’t come from estimators, asymptotics, or robustness checks. It enters earlier - when the design defines the baseline and the shock.

Everything else just measures it.

#econsky open.substack.com/pub/clintbal...

The Intercept Is Where Causality Lives: A Structural Turn in Economics Economics happens in the intercept

The Intercept Is Where Causality Lives: A Structural Turn in Economics

Economics happens in the intercept

clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-interc... #econsky

Zero Is Not a Floor. It Is the Foundation. Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation

Zero Is Not a Floor. It Is the Foundation.
Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation

clintballinger.substack.com/p/zero-is-no... #econsky

The Defector’s Dividend: Administered Rates and the Corruption of the Global Price Interest rates are a price, not a policy vector.

The Defector’s Dividend: Administered Rates and the Corruption of the Global Price

"Interest rates are a price, not a policy vector

When we ask them to stabilize employment, inflation, FX, asset prices, and inequality, they cease to function as prices at all"

substack.com/@clintballin... #econsky

@nathantankus.bsky.social You probably have already read/seen this but just in case. Looks interesting sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/1...

And THEN - as if all of this wasn’t bad enough:

As mentioned in “1” above, this whole process involves so many channels that our methods are known to be incapable of meaningfully analyzing the resulting changes to the system

So not only negative forces; not only *increased* negative forces; but significantly higher distortionary forces of *all* kinds.

So to summarize: We are pushing up via

1) (known to be harmful) channels that then
2) have to be exaggerated & then
3) worse still again that ALL channels are higher because of this tug-of-war effect.

This is how raising interest rates to fight inflation works.

Not only is the intervention known to be damaging (unemployment, reduced investment…), but, because of this tug-of-war between opposing forces, the total force of ALL channels is greater.

…one pulls down and the other pushes up.
The “up” person is slightly stronger.

With a whole lot of input you can just manage to get the object to go up.

But the *total* force on the object is much greater than it would be if you only had the “up” person pushing.

Really this= two related issues:

1) Econ analytical methods cannot handle the many channels. The degree of the problem is thus hidden

2) Imagine you have an object you want lifted higher. Two people have a grasp of the object. When you give the command,…

“Assume interiority conditions”

A technical convenience- Requires everyone consumes positive amounts and remains in the market.
Absolute deprivation, exclusion, and starvation as equilibrium outcomes become impossible by assumption

“Without loss of generality, normalize…”

Lossless for whom? Normalization fixes the unit of account- what everything else is measured against - anchoring reference points and binding constraints before optimization begins.

Just “WLOG” though

“Assume a complete probability space”

Every outcome must have an assignable probability. This replaces Knightian uncertainty, regime change, and genuine unknowability w calculable risk.

What can’t be priced simply vanishes

While mainstream GE & non-GE models recognize these channels individually, their linearized & conservatively calibrated interactions understate the combined dilution effect- leading policymakers to underestimate both required tightening & welfare costs

2/2