MX Army killed El Mencho today. A win for Sheinbaum. USG is happy too. The Cartel was quick to react setting buses, trucks and businesses on fire, blockading streets and highways. Locals? Terrified. I’m in Guadalajara, a city that virtually emptied out. No public transport, people sheltered in place
Important podcast episode on what is next for Venezuela.
Fresh off the press from @crisisgroup.org.
www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
I spoke to @nytimes @farnazfassihi about the Council's trip to Syria and Lebanon. 👇
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/w...
NEWS from @crisisgroup.org.
After 7 years as UN Director, I'm moving to a new program on Global Issues and Institutions.
@fortid.crisisgroup.org becomes Head of UN Affairs, backed by @mayaungar.bsky.social.
.
AND we need a Senior Analyst covering geopolitics 👇
jobs.crisisgroup.org/o/analyst-gl...
NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | UN Lifts Sanctions on Syria’s President as White House Visit Beckons
@mayaungar.bsky.social analyses the U.S.-led diplomatic push ahead of a planned meeting between Ahmed al-Sharaa and Donald Trump.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Russian Ambassador in NY just held a stakeout on snapback.
When pushed to answer if Rus would implement sanctions on Iran again, he evaded, instead saying "how can [sanctions] be introduced if the snapback being launched right now is illegal."
webtv.un.org/en/asset/k1u...
There is still some (slim) hope of a deal within the next 30 days. And, world leaders descending on NY later this month for a week of UNGA diplomacy could be an opportunity.
For more details, check out @crisisgroup.org’s most recent article. (9/9)
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
This could lead to some states recognizing the legitimacy of the sanctions, and others not
That raises the question of whether or not Iran will feel the need to withdraw from the NPT, as they have threatened.
Withdrawal could trigger a significant response from Israel/US.
Russia is likely to also try to block the monitoring of sanctions on Iran, including by:
2⃣ putting a hold on the appointment of a chair to oversee the sanctions committee
2⃣ blocking the appointment of a Panel of Experts to monitor the sanctions.
The E3 have not withdrawn from the JCPOA, but Rus is arguing that the E3 “chronically violated that resolution and the JCPOA; therefore, they no longer have any right to engage that mechanism”.
No surprise, but the E3 strongly disagree.
docs.un.org/en/S/PV.9944
If this does happen, it is likely to be contested. Rus has already laid the groundwork to try to delegitimize the E3 right to snapback
How can they do so? In 2020, the U.S. tried to snapback sanctions but other states denied them (since they withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018)
Then, parties have 30 days (from the original notification) for last-ditch diplomacy before a vote.
If the vote is vetoed, or fails to gain the necessary 9 votes to pass, then snapback commences and all pre-2015 sanctions on Iran are restored.
👇 below for list of sanctions👇
Today, the E3 (🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧) triggered snapback. Here are the next steps.
First, a Council member needs to draft a resolution to essentially ignore the snapback. If no one does within ten days, the Council President (🇰🇷) will do so.
Quick background — in 2015, the Council passed UNSCR 2231, endorsing the JCPOA and pausing UN sanctions on Iran.
The res included a “snapback” mechanism, allowing any of the parties (🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺) to reinstate sanctions if there was “significant non-performance of commitments”
The E3 just snapped back sanctions on Iran. What happens next?
A quick 🧵, based on this very helpful article by my colleagues @icg_iran & @FortiD. (1/9)
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Almost no news in NBC's 50-minute Lavrov interview, an avalanche of Kremlin talking points ("2014 coup", "Nazis") and denials "no civilian targeting", "no Bucha"). Lavrov seemed uncharacteristically nervous, twisting a paper clip for a good part of the interview.
UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping op for Lebanon, is up for renewal this month. 🇺🇳🇱🇧
The U.S. wants to renew it for one year, then shutter its doors.
@crisisgroup.org's @davidrobwood explains why that would be a mistake, and what the Council should do instead.👇
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Her recent report, "From Economy of Occupation to Economy of Genocide" appears to have been the trigger for this decisions.
This official UN report names and shames 48 corporations which "have fueled and legitimised the destruction of Palestine"👇
www.un.org/unispal/docu...
The U.S. just announced sanctions on the UN Special Rapporteur for Palestine -- @franceskalbs.bsky.social -- for her efforts to "prompt ICC action" against the U.S. and Israel.
The U.S. ends their remarks at the Security Council warning that "Iran's leadership would be wise to negotiate at this time"
"Once again, leaders of the majority-Serb entity Republika Srpska are threatening to break away from Bosnia.
While tensions between the entity and Sarajevo are longstanding, national collapse may be closer than ever before." 👇
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
NEW COMMENTARY | Bosnia in Deadlock as Serbs Strain for Exit
Once again, leaders of the majority-Serb entity Republika Srpska are threatening to break away from Bosnia. National collapse may be closer than ever before.
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
The U.S. is ramping up its pressure to scare countries off from recognising Palestine during the Two State Solution Conference at the UN next week, sending a cable warning they "could face diplomatic consequences from the U.S."
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
❗Important new @crisisgroup.org statement on #EU, #Gaza & #Israel.
Words are not enough.
For EU governments to help change Israel’s policy, they need to throw more of their economic and diplomatic weight into signalling to Israel that the Gaza campaign must end.
bit.ly/3FFM0t5
🇺🇳 ‘The case for the status quo won out. But neither result marks an end to sceptics’ efforts to chip away at UN sanctions regimes.’
@mayaungar.bsky.social unpacks the UN Security Council votes on sanctions on South Sudan and enforcement of Libya’s arms embargo.
www.crisisgroup.org/global-south...
✍️ My quick take for @crisisgroup.org on how last week's UNSC votes on South Sudan and Libya reflect on the broader sanctions debate at the UN.
www.crisisgroup.org/global-south...
Congratulations to the five newly elected members of the UN Security Council, set to join in January: Bahrain 🇧🇭, Colombia 🇨🇴, DRC 🇨🇩, Latvia 🇱🇻 & Liberia 🇱🇷.
They will be replacing Algeria 🇩🇿, Guyana 🇬🇾, ROK 🇰🇷, Sierra Leone 🇸🇱 & Slovenia 🇸🇮.
"Kyiv’s message to Moscow is that while Russian forces may be able to advance on the battlefield, the longer the war continues, the more Russia will suffer – meaning it is better to agree now to concessions at the negotiating table."
@crisisgroup.org reacts👇
www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
