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Posts by Tomás Aragón (托马斯·阿拉贡)

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Leading Public Health in Turbulent Times Public Health Week — UC Davis Health Department of Public Health Sciences

Leading Public Health in Turbulent Times: Public Health Week — UC Davis Health Department of Public Health Sciences #CharacterMatters #PublicHealthWeek #LeadershipMatters

teampublichealth.substack.com/p/leading-pu...

1 day ago 0 0 0 0
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Value-Focused Thinking and Decision-Making A superpower for decisive, values-based leadership

Value-Focused Thinking and Decision-Making: A superpower for decisive, values-based leadership
teampublichealth.substack.com/p/value-focu...

4 days ago 0 0 0 0

"To be truly radical is to make hope possible, rather than despair convincing."

--- Raymond Williams, Keywords.

Inspiring quote that was shared today by Sir Michael Marmot at the UC Berkeley School of Public Health Faculty meeting.

6 days ago 0 0 0 0
BAD BUNNY - BAILE INoLVIDABLE (Video Oficial) | DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
BAD BUNNY - BAILE INoLVIDABLE (Video Oficial) | DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS YouTube video by Bad Bunny

"Mientras uno está vivo uno debe amar lo más que pueda". ... "No, no te puedo olvidar. No, no te puedo borrar. Tú me enseñaste a querer. Me enseñaste a bailar."

www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1Fe...

1 week ago 0 0 0 0
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The surprising ways cannabis may affect the aging brain As more states legalize recreational marijuana use, here’s what the research says about what cannabis is really doing to your brain.

The surprising ways cannabis may affect the aging brain.
As more states legalize recreational marijuana use, here’s what the research says about what cannabis is really doing to your brain.
www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/202...

1 week ago 0 0 0 0
The inaugural John Swartzberg lecture series with CDPH Officer Dr. Erica Pan
The inaugural John Swartzberg lecture series with CDPH Officer Dr. Erica Pan YouTube video by UC Berkeley School of Public Health

The inaugural John Swartzberg lecture series with CDPH Officer Dr. Erica Pan!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoX5...

1 week ago 0 1 0 0
A screenshot showing:
Introduction

These are notes for my class on probability models. In these notes, I walk through the concepts and computation that support modern probability modeling in political science using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches.

The Goal

There are many excellent books on probability models. But I felt the need to write my own. Why? I saw three problems.

First, some classes assign a huge textbook. It might be possible for the strongest and most motivated students to become familiar with the range of topics covered in these textbook, but impossible to master. Instead, these textbooks seem like references, something you’re supposed to constantly be referring back to throughout your career. I know this because many of these books have instructors’ guides that suggest what should be covered in a single semester, what should be skipped, and how one might jump around. Instead, I want a book that students can work through beginning to end and master each idea.
Second, some classes assign a variety of sections from several books and a collection of articles. But then the story told in the readings isn’t coherent. The styles are changing, the author’s tastes are changing, and the notation is changing. Switching among authors can feel like whiplash when learning a difficult subject. Instead, I want a book that tells a continuous story with consistent style, tastes, and notation.
Third, some classes assign readings that support the lecture material, without exact alignment between the two. For better or worse, the content covered by the instructor in class feels like the most important material. Thus, I want a book that exactly aligns with the material I cover in class.

A screenshot showing: Introduction These are notes for my class on probability models. In these notes, I walk through the concepts and computation that support modern probability modeling in political science using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The Goal There are many excellent books on probability models. But I felt the need to write my own. Why? I saw three problems. First, some classes assign a huge textbook. It might be possible for the strongest and most motivated students to become familiar with the range of topics covered in these textbook, but impossible to master. Instead, these textbooks seem like references, something you’re supposed to constantly be referring back to throughout your career. I know this because many of these books have instructors’ guides that suggest what should be covered in a single semester, what should be skipped, and how one might jump around. Instead, I want a book that students can work through beginning to end and master each idea. Second, some classes assign a variety of sections from several books and a collection of articles. But then the story told in the readings isn’t coherent. The styles are changing, the author’s tastes are changing, and the notation is changing. Switching among authors can feel like whiplash when learning a difficult subject. Instead, I want a book that tells a continuous story with consistent style, tastes, and notation. Third, some classes assign readings that support the lecture material, without exact alignment between the two. For better or worse, the content covered by the instructor in class feels like the most important material. Thus, I want a book that exactly aligns with the material I cover in class.

You guys @carlislerainey.bsky.social has a free textbook online and it seems really useful pos5747.github.io/notes/

2 weeks ago 45 20 0 2
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Drinking red wine increases your risk of getting cancer. Warning labels should say so OPINION: Alcohol, including red wine, is a Group 1 carcinogen, like radiation and tobacco. Warning labels on bottles should reflect that fact.

www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/open...

4 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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The "Groan Zone" of Group Decision Making Completed Facilitator's Workshop by "Community At Work"

The "Groan Zone" of Group Decision Making -- Completed Facilitator's Workshop by "Community At Work". #TEAMPublicHealth #DecisionIntelligence
teampublichealth.substack.com/p/the-groan-...

4 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Pandemic anniversary reality check Watch now | Why we shut down the Bay Area six years ago-- and why revising that history puts us at risk

From #YourLocalEpidemiologistCA leader --- Dr. Matt Willis :
Pandemic anniversary reality check --- Why we shut down the Bay Area six years ago-- and why revising that history puts us at risk
yourlocalepidemiologistca.substack.com/p/pandemic-a...

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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Extreme Heat Health Effects (infographic). Courtesy of #TEAMPublicHealth

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

Are you Heat Ready, California?

Heat is deadlier than any other weather hazard. Be prepared for extreme heat events and find resources to help you stay safe.
heatready.ca.gov

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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Epic Southern California heat wave poses deadly health threat 'This is effectively a full-on summer heatwave in March,' a climate scientist wrote on X.

www.latimes.com/california/s...

1 month ago 0 0 0 1
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Opinion | Schools are teaching AI — and making a massive mistake They should teach kids to have agency over the technology, not just how to use it.

"Kids don’t need to learn prompt engineering ... They need a holistic understanding of AI — ... how it works and how it affects learning. ... [how] AI supercharges their learning and when it stunts it. None of this requires more time on screens."
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

1 month ago 1 1 0 0
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Teenagers Have Easy Access to Cannabis. Science Says It’s Bad for Them. New research shows even infrequent cannabis use during adolescence is linked to increased risk of mental-health disorders and poor academic performance.

"Teenagers Have Easy Access to Cannabis. Science Says It’s Bad for Them."

New research shows even infrequent marijuana use during adolescence is linked to increased risk of mental-health disorders and poor performance in school
www.wsj.com/health/welln...

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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Effort is the Algorithm -- How AI can make you smarter and dumber Rewiring our brain for learning and improving requires positive cognitive load

"Effort is the Algorithm -- How AI can make you smarter and dumber." Rewiring our brain for learning and improving requires positive cognitive load #TEAMPublicHealth
teampublichealth.substack.com/p/effort-is-...

1 month ago 1 1 0 0
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The test of open dialogue In the face of Jay Bhattacharya as the new CDC Director

Wonderful, informative piece by Dr. Matt Willis, CA YLE leader, former health officer of Marin County.

The test of open dialogue -- In the face of Jay Bhattacharya as the new CDC Director

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/the-test-o...

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
They have bazillions of dollars. We don't.
WE NEED YOUR HELP

FUEL the FIGHT

SAVE SCIENCE
PROTECT HEALTH
DEFEND DEMOCRACY

standupforscience.net/donate

They have bazillions of dollars. We don't. WE NEED YOUR HELP FUEL the FIGHT SAVE SCIENCE PROTECT HEALTH DEFEND DEMOCRACY standupforscience.net/donate

The fight for science is more important now than ever, and we need YOU to help fuel the fight! If you would like to donate, please visit standupforscience.net/donate
Thank you!

#standupforscience
#science
#ImpeachRFKJr
#RemoveRFKJr
#donate

1 month ago 49 22 0 1
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Facing an important decision? Made with Tally, the simplest way to create forms.

Facing or struggling with an important decision? We want to hear from you. Take this 2-question survey. We are developing free content to support your decision quality. Remember, "decisions determine destiny." #TEAMPublicHealth
tally.so/r/KY6joM

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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PDSA for problem solving, decision quality, A3 thinking, RBA, and more The Swiss Army knife for scientific reasoning, learning, and improving

PDSA for problem solving, decision quality, A3 thinking, RBA, and more: The Swiss Army knife for scientific reasoning, learning, and improving
#TEAMPublicHealth #DecisionIntelligence #QualityImprovement
teampublichealth.substack.com/p/pdsa-for-p...

2 months ago 1 0 0 0
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New decision modeling website for learning Introducing https://di4health.github.io/ site for learning decision modeling

Introducing "Decision Intelligence 4 Health" website for learning decision modeling. #TEAMPublicHealth #DecisionIntelligence
teampublichealth.substack.com/p/new-decisi...

2 months ago 1 0 0 0
The Symbolism Behind Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl Performance
The Symbolism Behind Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl Performance YouTube video by Michael Smerconish

"The only thing more powerful than hate is love."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PAL...

2 months ago 1 0 0 0
This Is How Kids Should Be Learning with AI | Priya Lakhani | TED
This Is How Kids Should Be Learning with AI | Priya Lakhani | TED YouTube video by TED

We need to bring together
- neuroscience
- learning science
- artificial intelligence

Top learning techniques
- Retrieval
- Spacing
- Generation
- Reflection

These techniques promote "productive struggle" which is necessary for learning.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBH8...

2 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Artificial intelligence will make important contributions to public health decision making, but humans will always need to be "in the loop" as decision architects.
#TEAMPublicHealth #decisionintelligence

2 months ago 1 0 0 0
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Consequence Tables for Decision Making Operationalizing Objectives & Key Results (OKRs) using 2-way tables

A Consequence Table (CT) is a simple way to organize your thinking around a single decision with multiple choices (eg, choosing a school to attend). CTs were popularized by decision science pioneers. #TEAMPublicHealth #DecisionIntelligence
teampublichealth.substack.com/p/consequenc...

2 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Governor Newsom meets with World Health Organization Director-General, announces California becomes first state to join WHO-coordinated international network | Governor of California

"As Trump withdraws the U.S. from the World Health Organization, California has become the first and only state to join a WHO-coordinated global outbreak response network — strengthening rapid detection and response to emerging public health threats." #ILoveCalifornia
www.gov.ca.gov/2026/01/23/g...

2 months ago 1 1 0 0
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Decision makers manage two dimensions of decision competence: organizational complexity and analytical complexity. On this GitHub page we focus on decision analysis using data science languages such as R and Julia. Feed welcomed! #TEAMPublicHealth #DecisionIntelligence
github.com/tomasaragon/...

2 months ago 1 0 0 0
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Decision Intelligence 4 Health Decision Intelligence 4 Health DEEP decision making under constraints Tomás Aragón, MD, DrPH, 2026-01-14 TEAMPublicHealth.substack.com (blog) University of California, Berkeley Public Health Former CD...

Decision Intelligence 4 Health -- DEEP decision making under constraints (Presentation delivered to the Health Officers Association of California (HOAC))
docs.google.com/presentation...

3 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Bayes' theorem and decision analysis for mortals Transforming data into information, knowledge, and wisdom - Part 3

Bayes' theorem and decision analysis for mortals -- Transforming data into information, knowledge, and wisdom - Part 3 #TEAMPublicHealth #DecisionIntelligence
teampublichealth.substack.com/p/bayes-theo...

3 months ago 1 0 0 0
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#TEAMPublicHealth introduced #Stoicism and Neo-Aristotelian Virtue Ethics (NAVE) for #CharacterMatters. How do they differ? Stoicism is practical #CBT and believes that good character is necessary and sufficient for a good life. To learn more visit teampublichealth.substack.com/t/character

3 months ago 4 0 0 0